January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[WinterWolf]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

One thing to note is we’ve had a fast PAC flow since early autumn. And one coastal Noreaster in fall. No one should be or have been expecting coastals this winter. You like to see a bunch in fall to set precedent . Fast flows do not deliver big east coast coastals 

It seems to deliver big bombs elsewhere though…no problem. 

We’ll get one before the winter is over…long way to go. We’ll take the nickels in the meantime. 

[MJO812]

47 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Your fault for buying those twitter idiots

Ray was never enthused. Smart man.

[Typhoon Tip]

15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

One thing to note is we’ve had a fast PAC flow since early autumn. And one coastal Noreaster in fall. No one should be or have been expecting coastals this winter. You like to see a bunch in fall to set precedent . Fast flows do not deliver big east coast coastals 

It's not an outright prerequisite but I like your overall approach here... 

What it does is changes the species.   You go from Miller-A atmospheres to NJ Model Lows, which these latter kind "could be" considered Miller-B but they are not necessarily so.  

Either way, NJ Model low or Miller-B stressed and shredded... they move right along.   

The problem with Miller-B's in a fast atmosphere, the translation of the entire wave space moves along too fast and the "transfer"  ( which is bs ..it's not a transfer in reality ) isn't given enough time for the new low to affect before it's expelled along the flow.  Also, the speed doesn't allow the jet cross-sections to set up as proficiently either, and that offset the integrity of the new low that way.  So both end up looking more sheary and shreddy and the Miller-B is challenged.   

NJ Model lows are systems where despite the fast flow enough amplitude occurs back west far enough to activate cyclogenesis nearing the coast... say over ~ WV  ...When the nose of the jet/diffluence aloft approaches the natively intense thermal packing/+Baroclinicity near the Del Marva, a low detonates very quickly..  Sometimes bombing as she blossom out just under L.I.  These clip the I-95 corridor from perhaps PHL on up to PWM.  Albany may have dim sun while HFD-BOS has a 3 hour pulse of S+ with lightning and thunder.   The best version of these were back in 1980s, then again around 1996.  But they move really quick.  6 to 9 hours tops usually for totality. 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Ray was never enthused. Smart man.

Take em with a grain of salt…until under 5 days. 

[Typhoon Tip]

MJO DISCUSSION

• Over the past several weeks, the MJO remains weak and disorganized, with other modes of variability
being the predominant drivers of convective and circulation anomalies throughout the tropics.
• La Nina related ocean/atmosphere anomalies persist, but have become more confined across portions
of the equatorial Pacific.
• Dynamical models have been consistent in favoring little to no reemergence of coherent subseasonal
activity in the coming weeks, with large ensemble spread covering various phases in RMM space.
• If any renewed MJO activity were to occur later in January, the western Pacific appears most likely
based on upper-level velocity potential and lower level zonal wind anomaly forecasts.
• The precipitation and tropical cyclone formation outlook relies mostly on the La Nina background state,
model guidance and climatology, where additional tropical cyclogenesis is favored across the southern
Indian Ocean and South Pacific.

I find the bold intriguing. It insinuates the hemisphere is at present rather decoupled from the ENSO state.  It matters to me ...because a lot of my own ideas for the late winter period were based upon more -ENSO contribution/correlation with other notable warm springs in the past; then combining with that the recent decadal observation of increasing pattern meanders associated with CC ... the dice seemed weighted toward warmer. 

If the -ENSO is struggling to couple to the pattern(s), it's unclear how long that would be the case for one...but suppose it persisted in the challenged state, that would have to be considered. 

[Krs4Lfe]

47 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

One thing to note is we’ve had a fast PAC flow since early autumn. And one coastal Noreaster in fall. No one should be or have been expecting coastals this winter. You like to see a bunch in fall to set precedent . Fast flows do not deliver big east coast coastals 

As long as we have record warm northwest pacific SSTs for a majority of the year, that helps supercharge the pacific jet, which leads to fast flow. Until the fast flow subsides, we will lack those bowling-ball type amplified systems that were prevalent in the 2000s and 2010s. It's the new normal

[Damage In Tolland]

40 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's not an outright prerequisite but I like your overall approach here... 

What it does is changes the species.   You go from Miller-A atmospheres to NJ Model Lows, which these latter kind "could be" considered Miller-B but they are not necessarily so.  

Either way, NJ Model low or Miller-B stressed and shredded... they move right along.   

The problem with Miller-B's in a fast atmosphere, the translation of the entire wave space moves along too fast and the "transfer"  ( which is bs ..it's not a transfer in reality ) isn't given enough time for the new low to affect before it's expelled along the flow.  Also, the speed doesn't allow the jet cross-sections to set up as proficiently either, and that offset the integrity of the new low that way.  So both end up looking more sheary and shreddy and the Miller-B is challenged.   

NJ Model lows are systems where despite the fast flow enough amplitude occurs back west far enough to activate cyclogenesis nearing the coast... say over ~ WV  ...When the nose of the jet/diffluence aloft approaches the natively intense thermal packing/+Baroclinicity near the Del Marva, a low detonates very quickly..  Sometimes bombing as she blossom out just under L.I.  These clip the I-95 corridor from perhaps PHL on up to PWM.  Albany may have dim sun while HFD-BOS has a 3 hour pulse of S+ with lightning and thunder.   The best version of these were back in 1980s, then again around 1996.  But they move really quick.  6 to 9 hours tops usually for totality. 

2 days in a row we are in agreement. Folks better mark this down 

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

As long as we have record warm northwest pacific SSTs for a majority of the year, that helps supercharge the pacific jet, which leads to fast flow. Until the fast flow subsides, we will lack those bowling-ball type amplified systems that were prevalent in the 2000s and 2010s. It's the new normal

Only the current normal…as is always the case with the atmosphere.  Couldn’t buy a clipper for years…was that the new normal too? Now we can’t stop them lol.
 

Carry on. 

[ORH_wxman]

It’s really too bad we couldn’t amplify the western ridge for Monday to send that northern stream vort further west and south because it would partially phase with that southern stream entity near Carolinas and probably produce a huge coastal. 
 

Im sure we will amplify the western ridge though just enough to cut a storm to our west when we don’t want it later this winter. 

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It’s really too bad we couldn’t amplify the western ridge for Monday to send that northern stream vort further west and south because it would partially phase with that southern stream entity near Carolinas and probably produce a huge coastal. 
 

Im sure we will amplify the western ridge though just enough to cut a storm to our west when we don’t want it later this winter. 

Oh for sure…100% we will. Murphy’s law. 

[MJO812]

56 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Take em with a grain of salt…until under 5 days. 

Looks like we might have to close the shades for next week until the EPO goes negative.  Then we have to hope the NAO also doesnt go super negative which would mean congrats mid atlantic. 

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Looks like we might have to close the shades for next week until the EPO goes negative.  Then we have to hope the NAO also doesnt go super negative which would mean congrats mid atlantic. 

Im Not worried…modeling out past 8 days isn’t very reliable period.  Gonna snow some tonight here..snow on snow. Could be a lot worse.  

[Typhoon Tip]

For educational use only

but here is Scott's climo warm flash out ahead of the -EPO burst...   Both are represented here on this D10er ...  subject to change but in principle, these players are well-supported/correlated. 

This would only be chapter 1....   Chapter 2 probably involves this eastern ridge erosion and some sort of at least transient +PNA ... perhaps D14ish... pure speculation but is also a correlated as the extrapolation

[Krs4Lfe]

Unfortunately we have lost the cold in the 2nd week of January. That timing is very poor for the next system which moves through around the start of that week.  It’s telling that the models have not hinted at any resurgence of the storm that was depicted a few days ago. The cold has been lost and the NS is too fast and can’t phase with SS so all we get is a weak NS storm at a time when we have warm anomalies. A big let down

[NorEastermass128]

Wait…is @jbenedet ‘s prophesy coming true for Jan?  Maybe not exactly how he drew it up, but same sensible weather. Winter is quickly becoming my least favorite season. 

[WinterWolf]

6 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Unfortunately we have lost the cold in the 2nd week of January. That timing is very poor for the next system which moves through around the start of that week.  It’s telling that the models have not hinted at any resurgence of the storm that was depicted a few days ago. The cold has been lost and the NS is too fast and can’t phase with SS so all we get is a weak NS storm at a time when we have warm anomalies. A big let down

We’ll have to see…long way off.  Lots will change. But a January thaw is common.  

[Sey-Mour Snow]

3 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Wait…is @jbenedet ‘s prophesy coming true for Jan?  Maybe not exactly how he drew it up, but same sensible weather. Winter is quickly becoming my least favorite season. 

What prophesy? It will snow 3x within the first 6 days of January, then a possible cutter or two before we reload cold and storm chances . And it's December 31st, anything can change post Jan 6.. 

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Unfortunately we have lost the cold in the 2nd week of January. That timing is very poor for the next system which moves through around the start of that week.  It’s telling that the models have not hinted at any resurgence of the storm that was depicted a few days ago. The cold has been lost and the NS is too fast and can’t phase with SS so all we get is a weak NS storm at a time when we have warm anomalies. A big let down

what in the f* are talking about and where is this coming from 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

what in the f* are talking about and where is this coming from 

I suspect that poster is referring to the 2-4 day mild spell when the EPO spike initially occurs. But yeah, it doesn't seem like a permanent shift to mild....the cold is right behind it. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

what in the f* are talking about and where is this coming from 

It seems people don't look at models, and just make their own conclusions/forecasts based on the emotions of others lol 

[Damage In Tolland]

38 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Looks like we might have to close the shades for next week until the EPO goes negative.  Then we have to hope the NAO also doesnt go super negative which would mean congrats mid atlantic. 

Theres another light snow event Sunday night/ Monday 

[dendrite]

18 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Unfortunately we have lost the cold in the 2nd week of January. That timing is very poor for the next system which moves through around the start of that week.  It’s telling that the models have not hinted at any resurgence of the storm that was depicted a few days ago. The cold has been lost and the NS is too fast and can’t phase with SS so all we get is a weak NS storm at a time when we have warm anomalies. A big let down

Metfan comin for you

 

[Damage In Tolland]

11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

what in the f* are talking about and where is this coming from 

That mild few days might be 30’s

[Typhoon Tip]

Yeah ... true, and also, a large number of the engagers in here really probably don't have enough background if not capacity to follow along with this stuff. Have to be patient.  

So anyway, it's a pretty text book -EPO thrust and then 5 or so day evolution after the fact into either a quasi PNA or outrightly so ... whence the cold comes S-E the rest of the way to the coast out there.   As discussed ad nauseam ...yeah it may warm up during that 5 days, but that's not the end game.  In theory...heh

As far as events when it gets more after that ... I dunno.   Hopefully the flow doesn't end up too compressed through all that.  It could just be warm, then cold then nada 

[qg_omega]

21 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

What prophesy? It will snow 3x within the first 6 days of January, then a possible cutter or two before we reload cold and storm chances . And it's December 31st, anything can change post Jan 6.. 

what?????

[mahk_webstah]

21 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

What prophesy? It will snow 3x within the first 6 days of January, then a possible cutter or two before we reload cold and storm chances . And it's December 31st, anything can change post Jan 6.. 

he said 2 days ago the 10 day would be dogs hit pattern

[Snowcrazed71]

4 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah verbatim I don’t think it would be prolonged, just saying it looks to happen. Seems like a quiet 7 days coming up. 

Well that bodes well for you. If you're away on vacation somewhere warm. You're not going to be missing much. Might as well do it now so you can come back to hopefully some good stuff. Enjoy

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, dendrite said:

I mean I don’t disagree. I wasn’t trying to imply that those maps looked cold for us. We may risk dumping cold well to our west and if we don’t have the cold in QB for your +PP we’ll flirt with warm sectoring the northeast.

But I’m losing interest in these frequent light fluffernutters and persistent low end cold.

Yea, I'm ready to risk winter and get on with it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Get me a real storm I'll concern myself with thermals.....I'm done with the days of 20s and useless clippers. That's okay if you already have a deep pack...

[George001]

12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah ... true, and also, a large number of the engagers in here really probably don't have to capacity to follow along with this stuff. Have to be patient.  

So anyway, it's a pretty text book -EPO thrust and then 5 or so day evolution after the fact into either a quasi PNA or outrightly so ... whence the cold comes S-E the rest of the way to the coast out there.   As discussed ad nauseam ...yeah it may warm up during that 5 days, but that's the end game. 

As far as events when it gets more after that ... I dunno.   Hopefully the flow doesn't end up too compressed through all that.  It could just be warm, then cold then nada 

I disagree with this, its more of a motivation than a capacity thing.