January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[Damage In Tolland]

9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I understand science is a bit above your head but whatever 

Fight fight fight ‘

[40/70 Benchmark]

I don't understand why energy congealing near the east coast ends up being delayed until the Maritimes as a result of the fast flow, but a developing eastern lakes or NYS bomb doesn't end up near the east coast...is there a gap in the flow or something?

[WinterWolf]

12 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I understand science is a bit above your head but whatever 

That ain’t science Paul…it’s seeing that what you’re saying isn’t applying to any other region at this time.  
 

And What I have that you don’t is life experience…your a kid that hasn’t lived through what I have. I’ve seen this shit before first hand…you have not.   So perhaps, you are the one that doesn’t understand. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

What I will say is that I think guidance is underselling the emergence of the PNA...I can see this storm burgeoning back into existence with relatively little lead time when that correction is made.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

She was the last benchmark ish bomb? 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

She was the last benchmark ish bomb? 

Either Jan 2024 or 2022

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

7 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

She was the last benchmark ish bomb? 

I know we had one that was rain last year 

[Cyclone-68]

As a novice/amateur I’d state it’s too soon to give up but if we stay dry thru mid Jan with nothing still on the horizon, it’s lights out I think. 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Either Jan 2024 or 2022

What was the one that gave central CT 12-16” on Feb 13, 2024.  Was that near the benchmark? 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Cyclone-68 said:

As a novice/amateur I’d state it’s too soon to give up but if we stay dry thru mid Jan with nothing still on the horizon, it’s lights out I think. 

Yea, def. a very bad sign if we don't get anything major in the next two weeks.

[Damage In Tolland]

15 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

That ain’t science Paul…it’s seeing that what you’re saying isn’t applying to any other region at this time.  
 

And What I have that you don’t is life experience…your a kid that hasn’t lived through what I have. I’ve seen this shit before first hand…you have not.   So perhaps, you are the one that doesn’t understand. 

If you want blood.. you got it !

 

[The 4 Seasons]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

What was the one that gave central CT 12-16” on Feb 13, 2024.  Was that near the benchmark? 

yes, 978 just SE. https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/feb-13-2024

[weatherwiz]

17 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

And where we are at the moment too.  Because the bombs Paul…they aren’t being affected by this idea in other parts of this country currently.  Just like they weren’t being affected here during the 2000’s and 2010’s. But other parts of the country at that time were struggling, but we weren’t. So that tells me, that again, it’s a cycle.  And we will come out of it, like we did after the last dearth where nothing(very little) worked out here(the 80’s). 

Hey I'm with you...I have no doubt we will cone out of it and we will get smoked again. I get there is a luck factor in this and there are things we don't truly know or understand, but all we can do is try to use data and knowledge to further understand. At this point we are closer to getting out of this and I can't see us staying in this drought for much longer. 

22 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Explain to me like I am 5 years old why a fast flow makes favorable tracks for the midwest and Maritimes more likely than the east coast...the west warm pool, I understand....

It's more of a theory at this point so I don't have a ton of data or reanalysis maps I can throw into this...but would be a fun project to dig deeper. Anyways, we have to look at the jet stream on a global scale and all the influences which shape the jet stream structure, position, and strength. As you know, when the jet stream is faster, it becomes more difficult to really amplify the jet stream (not impossible but just more difficult). I just think that where we are positioned globally, we are in a spot in which the faster winds result in an increased probability for amplification to our west and then just to our east. 

Where I've started to develop this idea was based on some of the weather across the West the last few years. Remember a few years back the West was getting absolutely pummeled for a 6 week stretch which was something more akin to what you would see in EL Nino versus La Nina. The orientation and structure of the jet stream was not what you would typically see. 

This is all a ramble...but I will eventually get back to you with more coherent thoughts. 

[Krs4Lfe]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, def. a very bad sign if we don't get anything major in the next two weeks.

Welcome to the new normal. The flow is too fast for anything amplified. Too much storminess near the west coast doesn't let anything amplified to crawl up the coast like it used to in the 2010s and 2000s. Even when there is a -NAO so there's enough blocking, the flow is too fast and the northern stream can never phase with southern stream. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Welcome to the new normal. The flow is too fast for anything amplified. Too much storminess near the west coast doesn't let anything amplified to crawl up the coast like it used to in the 2010s and 2000s. Even when there is a -NAO so there's enough blocking, the flow is too fast and the northern stream can never phase with southern stream. 

Not the new normal, only the current situation. Which will eventually shift, and change.  

[Baroclinic Zone]

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Not the new normal, only the current situation. Which will eventually shift, and change.  

May take 500-1000yrs to break

[UnitedWx]

35 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't understand why energy congealing near the east coast ends up being delayed until the Maritimes as a result of the fast flow, but a developing eastern lakes or NYS bomb doesn't end up near the east coast...is there a gap in the flow or something?

You KNOW he's writing a multi paragraph explanation as we discuss

[UnitedWx]

17 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Welcome to the new normal. The flow is too fast for anything amplified. Too much storminess near the west coast doesn't let anything amplified to crawl up the coast like it used to in the 2010s and 2000s. Even when there is a -NAO so there's enough blocking, the flow is too fast and the northern stream can never phase with southern stream. 

Horse hockey! EDIT: that translates to bullshit for those under 50

[WinterWolf]

8 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

May take 500-1000yrs to break

It won’t. 

[bristolri_wx]

3 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

You KNOW he's writing a multi paragraph explanation as we discuss

 

[tavwtby]

going back in all the data I collected and plotted season totals, you can definitely see a cyclical pattern to the goods, we had a good stretch that peaked in 36, another that peaked in 56, again in 96, there are a couple stragglers in or outliers, put a definite trendline emerges... that said I believe we've bottomed out and will turn the corner eventually and get back to the goods, law of averages given a long enough time line 

[Brewbeer]

15 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

May take 500-1000yrs to break

by then the coast will be further inland

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

I think you can’t just keep explaining multi year and moving on close to a decade as “bad luck”. There is definitely something more going on. Sure, it could Be partially bad luck, but the overall atmospheric picture is obviously one that has made certain snow analogs hostile for this area.

 

At some point, you can’t just bury your head in the sand and have to objectively analyze what’s happening.

[ORH_wxman]

1/8-9 looks worse today because the ridge is further east now. Need that further west. 
 

I’d still watch both that system and 1/6 though. There’s still a signal for both on the ensembles even if it’s not as strong. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

1 minute ago, Brewbeer said:

by then the coast will be further inland

I thought we were entering the next ice age…

[UnitedWx]

5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I think you can’t just keep explaining multi year and moving on close to a decade as “bad luck”. There is definitely something more going on. Sure, it could Be partially bad luck, but the overall atmospheric picture is obviously one that has made certain snow analogs hostile for this area.

 

At some point, you can’t just bury your head in the sand and have to objectively analyze what’s happening.

We've been here before,  but it's been several decades 

[Brewbeer]

4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

I thought we were entering the next ice age…

flow seems too fast for that

[Great Snow 1717]

26 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Not the new normal, only the current situation. Which will eventually shift, and change.  

...can also shift/change and get worse...

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

...can also shift/change and get worse...

Not likely…last year wasn’t as bad(nothing great obviously) as the year before that. This year better already than last…

[Damage In Tolland]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

1/8-9 looks worse today because the ridge is further east now. Need that further west. 
 

I’d still watch both that system and 1/6 though. There’s still a signal for both on the ensembles even if it’s not as strong. 

Just like models lost the 1-3” for tomorrow night  and now brought it back . Same should apply with these two