January 2026 OBS and Discussion

[donsutherland1]

Through Wednesday, highs will generally reach the 40s during the daytime and 30s for lows in New York City. Somewhat colder readings are likely outside the City and in areas where strong radiational cooling takes place.

After the middle of next week, temperatures will "step down" with highs mainly in the middle and upper 30s in New York City and lows in the middle and upper 20s. Some light precipitation is possible on Friday. Rain showers could transition to a period of snow. A light accumulation is possible. Some additional precipitation could arrive on Sunday.

No significant Arctic blasts or significant snowfalls are likely through at least mid-January.

Afterward, conditions might become more favorable for both cold and snowfall, especially if the PNA remains predominantly positive, as has often occurred following the breakdown of long-duration PNA- regimes. PNA-related developments would have larger implications for snowfall. A persistently positive PNA would have above climatological risk of moderate or significant snowfalls. A mainly negative PNA would favor mainly small snowfalls. It will likely be another day or two before the guidance reaches the high-skill timeframe for teleconnection forecasts. 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around January 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.67°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter.

The SOI was +12.16 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.040 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 55% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 33.5° (-0.2° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.9° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, EasternLI said:

Guidance still seems keen on taking the MJO through the Pacific. With what actually looks like a more legitimate attempt at phase 8 this time. But starting to actually reflect that at H5 more as well. I'd suggest some patience is in order. As much as no-one wants to hear that and I get it. 

The Pacific has to slow down and allow a better/more stout PNA ridge without so much interference from 10000 shortwaves. Period. I can't speak for the 1980s or other lean snow periods here but I'm with those who have to see the KU setup within 72hrs to believe it. Maybe these long range ensembles are biased too heavily to the 1990s/2000s climate, someone with better knowledge can explain. We lucked out with the two clipper like systems but normal for us is still a good bit higher. Feb seems like when we can finally make a bigger ticket event happen like in 2021 and 2024, hopefully we can do that this year. 

[EasternLI]

5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The Pacific has to slow down and allow a better/more stout PNA ridge without so much interference from 10000 shortwaves. Period. I can't speak for the 1980s or other lean snow periods here but I'm with those who have to see the KU setup within 72hrs to believe it. Maybe these long range ensembles are biased too heavily to the 1990s/2000s climate, someone with better knowledge can explain. We lucked out with the two clipper like systems but normal for us is still a good bit higher. Feb seems like when we can finally make a bigger ticket event happen like in 2021 and 2024, hopefully we can do that this year. 

Yeah, we'll see. I don't disagree with anything you've said. It's worth mentioning is all. Not saying anyone should believe anything... that's on them. 

[Krs4Lfe]

The only thing that seems to be guaranteed throuhh the end of the month is cold air. GFS has a larger storm just offshore for the 18th. Euro has nothing. All models are signaling a larger storm around the 23rd. Looks like colder air sets in on Wednesday; ending our thaw, and then arctic air comes in next weekend and stays (probably some slight moderation at time) throuhh the end of the month. Very active long range signal. Not just for here but finally for central and south US as well. Will winter finally begin for those places?

[EastonSN+]

53 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The Pacific has to slow down and allow a better/more stout PNA ridge without so much interference from 10000 shortwaves. Period. I can't speak for the 1980s or other lean snow periods here but I'm with those who have to see the KU setup within 72hrs to believe it. Maybe these long range ensembles are biased too heavily to the 1990s/2000s climate, someone with better knowledge can explain. We lucked out with the two clipper like systems but normal for us is still a good bit higher. Feb seems like when we can finally make a bigger ticket event happen like in 2021 and 2024, hopefully we can do that this year. 

Yeah we do have to wait for the fast flow to slow down for larger events.

One note, REGION WIDE foot plus events are relatively rare. In the 30 year low snowfall period there were 2 in 1978, 1 in 1983, 1 in 1994, 1 in 1995 and 1 in 1996. 

Only 3 in 20 years from 1970 to 1989.

Ironically, the 1990s which were much warmer had the most.

This is why I am not too worried with the current run.

[donsutherland1]

Bridgeport, Islip, Central Park, JFK Airport, LaGuardia Airport, and White Plains all had highs of 41F (5.0C) today. If that holds, it would be the first time since November 21, 1998 that all six locations had identical high temperatures.