January 2026 OBS and Discussion

[eduggs]

25 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Your aggressive and disrespectful posts will drive one of our best posters away from the board. 

I think it's more likely he'll present the underlying information that he uses in his analysis. He might also reread some of the citations at the end of the link he posted and sharpen up his own analysis. And then everybody benefits. 

[Krs4Lfe]

16 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

kicking the can.   We went from 1/4-6 all the way out to the 18th now.   Big Jan has turned to big meh

I remember that big 1/7 storm. And the 1/11 pattern change (didn't happen, we're still above average temps today, but the cool down is coming on 14th-15th), and the 1/16 storm. Models always rush a pattern change (whether good or bad). But yeah what was supposed to be a good january is now reduced to the back half of the month. Like I said earlier though, if we can get a turnaround like late Jan 2021, late Jan 2015 (which was nearly snowless until that epic pattern change), Feb 2013, or Feb 2006, we'll be in good shape. But that's a very tall ask. 

[the_other_guy]

3 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

"Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 55% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 33.5° (-0.2° below normal). "

That quote is from Don's post from yesterday - How you consider 0.2 below normal "warm" is beyond me.

Monthly Departures through the first 1/3 of the month (1/11)


EWR: +3.5
ISP: +2.8
NYC: +2.3
JFK: +2.2
TTN: +1.5
LGA: +1.0

 

 

Is it cold thus far? And what is coming in the last 10 days that is going to pull it down? Because this week…its not looking like its pulling down these positive departures by a hell of a lot

[NEG NAO]

18 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Monthly Departures through the first 1/3 of the month (1/11)


EWR: +3.5
ISP: +2.8
NYC: +2.3
JFK: +2.2
TTN: +1.5
LGA: +1.0

 

 

Is it cold thus far? And what is coming in the last 10 days that is going to pull it down? Because this week…its not looking like its pulling down these positive departures by a hell of a lot

this won't pull it down ? Check out the last graphic - 45 Below just north of the great lakes - impressive and the flow will be directed towards here from that source region and a few degrees below normal for a period of time will bring thos above averages down to near normal by the end of the month or below !

[NEG NAO]

Get ready for some way below normal temps Don's predicted 0.2 below normal for the month might end up too warm !

[Krs4Lfe]

Euro is closer with the 18th, has a coastal storm just offshore. Reaffirms that the 16th is dead though. Some inland snowfall but rain/snow showers for most of us. CMC Ensembles really like the 18th, probably because the OP likes it so much too. I've never given too much weight to ensembles because they generally follow the op more often than not. CMC and Euro show ample cold through the end of the month and numerous northern stream events. My one criticism: too many vorticies and energy flying around. Don't think anything will be able to consolidate like this. No consolidations means larger storms are off the table 

[MANDA]

I have little doubt a return to colder is coming (I've been on that train for a while) but that ups the ante of storm suppression last third of the month.  Could well be we switch to cold and dry.  I'm not seeing anything that leads me to believe the STJ is going to get involved in any kind of significant way.  A ways to go for sure but if it turns out just cold and dry last third of January I would not be surprised.

For rest of this week dry and closer to seasonable than last week.  Overall the dry pattern looks to persist for at least another week to 10 days.

[NEG NAO]

4 minutes ago, MANDA said:

I have little doubt a return to colder is coming (I've been on that train for a while) but that ups the ante of storm suppression last third of the month.  Could well be we switch to cold and dry.  I'm not seeing anything that leads me to believe the STJ is going to get involved in any kind of significant way.  A ways to go for sure but if it turns out just cold and dry last third of January I would not be surprised.

For rest of this week dry and closer to seasonable than last week.  Overall the dry pattern looks to persist for at least another week to 10 days.

In this type of pattern models are not going to pick up on any storm threats till 5 - 7 days out and Clippers and Miller B's might prevail - not Gulf Lows for now ..but one never knows for sure

[anthonymm]

Throw out January for snow. Hopefully this winter doesn't disprove the "snowy nina december" rule. Was a nice stat that helped us figure out if winter was gonna be trash or not. Guess it's just really really hard to get above normal in the park now.

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, psv88 said:

Again, you are making yourself look foolish. Nobody cares at all. Take it off line. 

The way you challenge comes across as disrespectful. I respect Don immensely, as does everyone else on here. 

Again, take it to DM and move forward. Nobody, and i mean nobody, cares about the equations he uses in his posts. You just come across as a pompous prick. 

Your aggressive and disrespectful posts will drive one of our best posters away from the board. 

PSV88,

Rest assured, I have a thick skin. I don't take it personally. I hope he also remains here, too. 

[eduggs]

10 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

Throw out January for snow. Hopefully this winter doesn't disprove the "snowy nina december" rule. Was a nice stat that helped us figure out if winter was gonna be trash or not. Guess it's just really really hard to get above normal in the park now.

There's no such rule. Accumulated snowfall is a poor metric for any kind of correlation, especially at an individual location. The complexity and variability of ENSO states also makes reducing it to a binary a poor choice for correlation. It's too early to toss January.

[MANDA]

34 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

In this type of pattern models are not going to pick up on any storm threats till 5 - 7 days out and Clippers and Miller B's might prevail - not Gulf Lows for now ..but one never knows for sure

Totally get that but if the cold comes gangbusters the risk of suppression can be high.  

I'd add that in any type of pattern models are not going to seriously pick up on storm threats in any believable way until inside of 7 days and with the ways things have been going lately inside of 3-4 days.

[snowman19]

Totally get that but if the cold comes gangbusters the risk of suppression can be high.  
I'd add that in any type of pattern models are not going to seriously pick up on storm threats in any believable way until inside of 7 days and with the ways things have been going lately inside of 3-4 days.

Just mentioned this in the ENSO thread, but this pattern is following the underlying, overall theme of dryness/drought since the end of summer, 2024 and modeled storms either disappearing or underperforming with low QPF once we get closer in time. Again, I don’t think this repeating cycle breaks until the El Niño gets established this summer. The drought has actually gotten worse since December:

[coastalplainsnowman]

19 minutes ago, eduggs said:

There's no such rule. Accumulated snowfall is a poor metric for any kind of correlation, especially at an individual location. The complexity and variability of ENSO states also makes reducing it to a binary a poor choice for correlation. It's too early to toss January.

What are your thoughts on the predictive capabilities of groundhogs?

[EastonSN+]

15 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Swell

 

13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

No shortage of cold as far out as the eye can see on guidance. We just can’t get any type of QPF to run into it. 

The best summary by ORH_wxman

[NJwx85]

Snow season for the coastal plain unofficially ends in 35 days. Not that it cannot snow after Presidents Day, but it becomes much harder after that point due to a variety of factors. It will be disappointing if we manage to escape another Winter without a KU, especially after a very cold and snowy December around here, but it is what it is. Wave interference was the killer on this weeks threat and that seems to be the trend of the last few years. Too much activity and not enough wave spacing. Everything that ejects from the Southern stream gets kicked out before it can phase.  

[MANDA]

21 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Just mentioned this in the ENSO thread, but this pattern is following the underlying, overall theme of dryness/drought since the end of summer, 2024 and modeled storms either disappearing or underperforming with low QPF once we get closer in time. Again, I don’t think this repeating cycle breaks until the El Niño gets established this summer. The drought has actually gotten worse since December:

 

 

I actually tend to agree with this assessment.  For the balance of this season in my mind we have to kind of root for some renegade type system to break through the pattern and deliver something over 8"+ area wide with a decent coastal type track.  Otherwise it is going to be lighter events similar to what we had in December.  I had 13.1" here in December.  The largest snowfall here was 5.5".  The balance of 7.6" was spread over 7 events.  Not dissing it, we had a nice snowy run up to the holiday season and a solidly cold December.

We'll see what happens the rest of the way.

EURO not being shy about first cold shot by early next week.

[Picard]

NJ.COM going with some clickbait on the end of week system.  They already have the red bar at the top declaring the snow threat and seem to be pretty bullish on something materializing:

https://www.nj.com/weather/2026/01/nj-weather-forecasters-tracking-potential-snow-wintry-mix-from-storm-later-this-week.html

[WeatherGeek2025]

20 minutes ago, Picard said:

NJ.COM going with some clickbait on the end of week system.  They already have the red bar at the top declaring the snow threat and seem to be pretty bullish on something materializing:

https://www.nj.com/weather/2026/01/nj-weather-forecasters-tracking-potential-snow-wintry-mix-from-storm-later-this-week.html

probably hasn't been updated since saturday! clearly it's a no go 

[NEG NAO]

Cold signals ahead

[the_other_guy]

1 hour ago, NEG NAO said:

19 days left in the month - plenty of cold air available and you are saying no snow with nothing to back it up with - amazing !

Well this week is out. I think we agree on that. Down to 12 days. I dont necessarily agree with the OP about no snowfall, but we are now into the second half of the game and we are down in the score

[MANDA]

11 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Cold signals ahead

Add to that bitter cold currently over Canada which is not going anywhere fast, a deep snow pack and the coldest time of the year vs. climo and notable cold for a week or two is increasing for the central and eastern U.S. starting early next week.

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, anthonymm said:

Throw out January for snow. Hopefully this winter doesn't disprove the "snowy nina december" rule. Was a nice stat that helped us figure out if winter was gonna be trash or not. Guess it's just really really hard to get above normal in the park now.

First throw out December and now throw out January. Another troll. 

[NEG NAO]

26 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Well this week is out. I think we agree on that. Down to 12 days. I dont necessarily agree with the OP about no snowfall, but we are now into the second half of the game and we are down in the score

How do you figure we are down in the score ? Also there is no chance to pick up a couple inches region wide the next 7 days ? Remember we had above normal snowfall in December 7 + inches in CP NYC and more in surrounding areas I had 9.5 - I am right where I should be with accumulation for the season so far

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, the_other_guy said:

Well this week is out. I think we agree on that. Down to 12 days. I dont necessarily agree with the OP about no snowfall, but we are now into the second half of the game and we are down in the score

I'm thinking we can get another couple smaller events but the Miller A type track is nowhere to be seen last 4-5 yrs

[EasternLI]

Guidance still seems keen on taking the MJO through the Pacific. With what actually looks like a more legitimate attempt at phase 8 this time. But starting to actually reflect that at H5 more as well. I'd suggest some patience is in order. As much as no-one wants to hear that and I get it. 

[NorthShoreWx]

3 hours ago, anthonymm said:

Throw out January for snow. Hopefully this winter doesn't disprove the "snowy nina december" rule. Was a nice stat that helped us figure out if winter was gonna be trash or not. Guess it's just really really hard to get above normal in the park now.

Not the park, but central LI in some January's with "poor starts" (note that the 1.3" on 1/31 /21 was the start of a 17" snowfall)::

	J A N	J A N	J A N	J A N
Day	2005	2015	2016	2021
1	0.0	0.0	0.0	T
2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
3	0.0	T	0.0	T
4	0.0	0.0	T	T
5	0.2	0.0	T	0.0
6	0.1	0.5	0.0	0.0
7	0.0	T	0.0	0.0
8	T	0.0	0.0	0.0
9	0.0	1.7	0.0	0.0
10	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0
12	0.0	0.0	T	0.0
13	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
14	T	T	T	0.0
15	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
16	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
17	2.5	0.0	0.9	0.0
18	0.0	0.0	T	0.0
19	3.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
20	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.2
21	0.0	T	0.0	0.0
22	11.4	T	T	0.0
23	3.0	0.0	17.0	0.0
24	T	4.0	0.5	0.0
25	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
26	1.0	5.0	0.0	0.3
27	0.1	10.0	0.0	T
28	0.0	T	T	0.0
29	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
30	0.1	0.8	0.0	0.0
31	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.3
Total thru 1/15	0.5	2.2	0.0	0.0
Total for January	21.9	22.0	18.4	1.8
Max Daily	11.4	10.0	17.0	1.3

Footnote: Snowfall here this month through January 12 is 1.1" (ahead of 2005, 2016, and 2021).  I think that the big snowstorms spawned those months were all Miller B's, even 2016.

 

[donsutherland1]

Through Wednesday, highs will generally reach the 40s during the daytime and 30s for lows in New York City. Somewhat colder readings are likely outside the City and in areas where strong radiational cooling takes place.

After the middle of next week, temperatures will "step down" with highs mainly in the middle and upper 30s in New York City and lows in the middle and upper 20s. Some light precipitation is possible on Friday. Rain showers could transition to a period of snow. A light accumulation is possible. Some additional precipitation could arrive on Sunday.

No significant Arctic blasts or significant snowfalls are likely through at least mid-January.

Afterward, conditions might become more favorable for both cold and snowfall, especially if the PNA remains predominantly positive, as has often occurred following the breakdown of long-duration PNA- regimes. PNA-related developments would have larger implications for snowfall. A persistently positive PNA would have above climatological risk of moderate or significant snowfalls. A mainly negative PNA would favor mainly small snowfalls. It will likely be another day or two before the guidance reaches the high-skill timeframe for teleconnection forecasts. 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around January 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.67°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter.

The SOI was +12.16 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.040 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 55% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 33.5° (-0.2° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.9° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, EasternLI said:

Guidance still seems keen on taking the MJO through the Pacific. With what actually looks like a more legitimate attempt at phase 8 this time. But starting to actually reflect that at H5 more as well. I'd suggest some patience is in order. As much as no-one wants to hear that and I get it. 

The Pacific has to slow down and allow a better/more stout PNA ridge without so much interference from 10000 shortwaves. Period. I can't speak for the 1980s or other lean snow periods here but I'm with those who have to see the KU setup within 72hrs to believe it. Maybe these long range ensembles are biased too heavily to the 1990s/2000s climate, someone with better knowledge can explain. We lucked out with the two clipper like systems but normal for us is still a good bit higher. Feb seems like when we can finally make a bigger ticket event happen like in 2021 and 2024, hopefully we can do that this year. 

[EasternLI]

5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The Pacific has to slow down and allow a better/more stout PNA ridge without so much interference from 10000 shortwaves. Period. I can't speak for the 1980s or other lean snow periods here but I'm with those who have to see the KU setup within 72hrs to believe it. Maybe these long range ensembles are biased too heavily to the 1990s/2000s climate, someone with better knowledge can explain. We lucked out with the two clipper like systems but normal for us is still a good bit higher. Feb seems like when we can finally make a bigger ticket event happen like in 2021 and 2024, hopefully we can do that this year. 

Yeah, we'll see. I don't disagree with anything you've said. It's worth mentioning is all. Not saying anyone should believe anything... that's on them.