January 2026 OBS and Discussion

[bluewave]

45 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Strange snow totals - BUT its GFS and Euro OP against the Canadian and Icon - on to the ensembles....

The OP Euro is trying to show a Norlun trough which seldom works out for our area. The EPS means don’t show it. But it’s always possible a narrowly focused Norlun develops somewhere between ACY and Boston with the UL. It would probably be a nowcasters special for the short term higher res models since they are never well forecast much in advance. 
 

 

 

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The OP Euro is trying to show a Norlun trough which seldom works out for our area. The EPS means don’t show it. But it’s always possible a narrowly focused Norlun develops somewhere between ACY and Boston with the UL. It would probably be a nowcasters special for the short term higher res models since they are never well forecast much in advance. 
 

 

 

The fact that the EPS doesn’t have it is a red flag with the op EURO. I honestly can’t remember the last time we had a true Norlun in the metro area. Anyway, the UKMET finally loaded and it looks like the ICON and CMC. After what it did the last 2 days the op GFS should be tossed, luckily the GEFS was showing that its op runs have been total nonsense. The EPS, NWS National Blend of Models and AI EURO have a very minor event and that would be the way to go IMO. The GEPS comes out soon but it hasn’t budged in days and I don’t expect the new run to either @donsutherland1

EDIT: GEPS held serve 

@MJO812 Your wishcasting isn’t going to turn this into a snowstorm 

[bluewave]

8 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The fact that the EPS doesn’t have it is a red flag with the op EURO. I honestly can’t remember the last time we had a true Norlun in the metro area. Anyway, the UKMET finally loaded and it looks like the ICON and CMC. After what it did the last 2 days the op GFS should be tossed, luckily the GEFS was showing that its op runs have been total nonsense. The EPS, NWS National Blend of Models and AI EURO have a very minor event and that would be the way to go IMO. The GEPS comes out soon but it hasn’t budged in days and I don’t expect the new run to either

I got a look at all the EPS members and under 20 show some type of Norlun. But the locations are pretty variable. So the mean is an average of many more members which don’t really show a focused Norlun signal. 

[NEG NAO]

27 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

I made the thread

 

why does it say I don't have permission to see it ?

 

[MJO812]

11 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The fact that the EPS doesn’t have it is a red flag with the op EURO. I honestly can’t remember the last time we had a true Norlun in the metro area. Anyway, the UKMET finally loaded and it looks like the ICON and CMC. After what it did the last 2 days the op GFS should be tossed, luckily the GEFS was showing that its op runs have been total nonsense. The EPS, NWS National Blend of Models and AI EURO have a very minor event and that would be the way to go IMO. The GEPS comes out soon but it hasn’t budged in days and I don’t expect the new run to either @donsutherland1

Eps went up with snowfall amounts and have more members amped .

Think before you type or shut up.

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

why does it say I don't have permission to see it ?

 

it was probably hidden or deleted

[BxEngine]

3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

why does it say I don't have permission to see it ?

 

Cuz i deleted it. 

[Krs4Lfe]

That was one of the best Euro runs we've seen in a long time. The cold is re-established, and the wintry events from next week set up some sort of blocking feature in the Atlantic. Seems like ample chances for snow are coming over a generally colder temp regime starting around the 14th. I'm sure not all the snow events will come to fruition, but the more there is in the long range would increase our chances for winter weather. 

[eduggs]

We lost the UK, ICON, and ECM-AI today. We'll track it to the end like the Challenger crew steered the shuttle, but this is starting to look cooked. 

[steve392]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Possible squall later with high winds 

Winds certainly picked up and are out of the wnw and temps dropping.  

[donsutherland1]

A snow squall has moved into the Binghamton area. Rain and snow showers remain possible across the NYC area later this afternoon or early this evening with the frontal passage.

[steve392]

1 hour ago, Krs4Lfe said:

I must say, even though I usually post horrible takes, the Euro is quite cold in the long range and the latest model suite doesn't dump a trough in the west after the 3rd week of january. Stays very cold, with waves riding along the arctic boundary. That depiction looks similar to 2014 and 2015 winters. Obviously I don't think the overall outcome will be the same, but hard to deny that it looks like very cold air is coming and several chances for precip. 

Winter 2014 was a great winter for this area! 

[psv88]

46 now and bright sunshine. Feels great!

[the_other_guy]

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

This thaw has changed the feeling of winter. Feels like it’s going to be seen as a front loaded winter where most of the cold was in December. January seems to be pretty warm until the last week. La Nina’s suck in February so we may just scrape ourselves to an average season. More than that I don’t see

I think we do OK this season but it’s small ball. But yes, the season has totally changed its feel. As I said last week these extended warm-ups are winter killers.

[WeatherGeek2025]

43 mostly cloudy here in White Plains, NY

[WestBabylonWeather]

At this range losing it on a model run then getting it back is pretty normal. Chill. 

[psv88]

6 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

At this range losing it on a model run then getting it back is pretty normal. Chill. 

This one was never a real threat. A GFS mirage. Let it go…

[Krs4Lfe]

21 minutes ago, steve392 said:

Winter 2014 was a great winter for this area! 

Oh yeah, that was absolutely an amazing winter and the numerous chances for snow in a row like on the euro model give flashbacks the 2014 and 2015 Winters, but I’m sure it’s not going to play out in that fashion. Still it’s good to see that they were ample chances for winter weather in the second half of this month showing up on the models.

[Krs4Lfe]

4 minutes ago, psv88 said:

This one was never a real threat. A GFS mirage. Let it go…

Dare I try to be the voice of reason, but even though the GFS has also backed off on, it’s insanely amplified solutions that it had on Friday and Saturday, there is still a legitimate possibility of pulling a moderate snow out of this one. I don’t think it’s one of those scenarios where either you get a blockbuster storm or you get nothing at all, this one is close enough that it can trend to a moderate storm, particularly along the coast. 

[Krs4Lfe]

19 minutes ago, psv88 said:

46 now and bright sunshine. Feels great!

Mainly cloudy in the city all day today in Windsor picking up now too, but yes, this was definitely a big thaw. The temperatures never went above the low 50s, but for what would normally be the coldest time of the year, it felt pretty darn warm. Also, it persisted for quite a bit and when all is said and done on Wednesday, it’ll be about eight days of a thaw, but we’ve seen much bigger ones

[Tatamy]

The echos over eastern PA are snow showers and squalls.  The echos moving along I84 look quite intense with visibility’s of 1/2 mile or less.  The brief snow shower we just had dropped visibility below 1/2 mile.  Temperature dropped from 41 to 36 as it passed.  If you are N&W of the city look out for these.

[IrishRob17]

7 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

The echos over eastern PA are snow showers and squalls.  The echos moving along I84 look quite intense with visibility’s of 1/2 mile or less.  The brief snow shower we just had dropped visibility below 1/2 mile.  Temperature dropped from 41 to 36 as it passed.  If you are N&W of the city look out for these.

Thanks for the report. I've been tracking them all day, there were several 1/4 mile visibility reports from highway departments across PA. 

[Tatamy]

2 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

Thanks for the report. I've been tacking them all day, there were several 1/4 mile visibility reports from highway departments across PA. 

I don’t doubt it.  Visibility’s on I84 in NE PA were in the half mile range when I checked a few minutes ago.

[MJO812]

51 minutes ago, eduggs said:

We lost the UK, ICON, and ECM-AI today. We'll track it to the end like the Challenger crew steered the shuttle, but this is starting to look cooked. 

What?

Look at h5 and get back to me. Nothing is cooked this far out.

[MJO812]

23 minutes ago, psv88 said:

This one was never a real threat. A GFS mirage. Let it go…

Let what go ?

Everyone else will continue to track it since its close to being a good storm.  Euro trended favorable. 

Just need a cleaner phase. We can work with that with days to go.

[MJO812]

56 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

That was one of the best Euro runs we've seen in a long time. The cold is re-established, and the wintry events from next week set up some sort of blocking feature in the Atlantic. Seems like ample chances for snow are coming over a generally colder temp regime starting around the 14th. I'm sure not all the snow events will come to fruition, but the more there is in the long range would increase our chances for winter weather. 

Mjo going  into 7 then 8 . Maybe fun times ahead but we know how that works.

[MJO812]

[IrishRob17]

16 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

I don’t doubt it.  Visibility’s on I84 in NE PA were in the half mile range when I checked a few minutes ago.

A trained spotter reported .3" of sleet just northwest of Wilkes-Barre. 

[Tatamy]

1 minute ago, IrishRob17 said:

A trained spotter reported .3" of sleet just northwest of Wilkes-Barre. 

I think they meant snow.

[IrishRob17]

3 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

I think they meant snow.

I was wondering that, agreed