January 2026 OBS and Discussion

[EastonSN+]

19 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Until the last five years single digit snowfall totals even in NYC were very rare. I don't have the stats in front of me but I'm pretty certain through 2018 it was less than 8 in 150 years. 

There were 3 1970 to 1999. 4 if you throw in 2001/2002. 

1996 through 1999 was 10.0, 5.5, 12.7, 16.3.  Throw in 2001 to 2002 of 3.5 and that is a terrible stretch.

[the_other_guy]

38 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

There were plenty of extremely warm winters and below 10 inch seasons. I literally lived them. I am seeing the exact same thing but a couple degrees warmer.

that last sentence is important and needs to be acknowledged more. these winters are warmer and with less snow than they would have been 20 years ago. 94-95 today could have been a shutout or single digit snowfall. The 2020s have the worst avg snowfall in recorded NYC history. Lets see if that changes

 

[WeatherGeek2025]

UKMET is a non event 

[NEG NAO]

11 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

Can I make a thread @BxEngine?

wait 1 more day after 12Z Sunday runs IF there is more consensus with other models - disregard GFS snow totals now.......

[brooklynwx99]

3 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

UKMET is a non event 

it's notably more amped though

[Jt17]

UKMET is a non event 

Don't let them break your spirit


.

[Krs4Lfe]

10 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

that last sentence is important and needs to be acknowledged more. these winters are warmer and with less snow than they would have been 20 years ago. 94-95 today could have been a shutout or single digit snowfall. The 2020s have the worst avg snowfall in recorded NYC history. Lets see if that changes

 

We would need some very good snow seasons in order to surpass the worst average snowfall in recorded NYC history. A very tall ask in a warming world 

[sussexcountyobs]

On a different note. Regarding today. What happened? 4 or 5 days ago, forecast highs here were supposed to be 55-60. It's 37.6F

[NEG NAO]

8 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

On a different note. Regarding today. What happened? 4 or 5 days ago, forecast highs here were supposed to be 55-60. It's 37.6F

Inaccurate forecast that far out - thats why we have to keep our options open about later next week 

[eduggs]

1 hour ago, eduggs said:

A caution flag on relying on ensembles for next week. First I should say that I'm a big fan of ensemble modeling. But there is a theory that they do not perform well with explosive and anomalous trof amplification. Seeing the GFS operational at only 5 days out with its superior resolution have virtually no support from its ensembles for more than one run should raise a caution flag. Add to that the GFS-AI and ECM-AI which tend to dampen waves compared to operational models looking more amplified than the CMC, UK, and ECM. It is possible that a relatively fine-scale shortwave with embedded vorticity might contribute to rapid amplification that is not well resolved by ensemble modeling. I would not be so bold as to predict this. But I think it's something to consider.

This shortwave feature may not be well resolved by ensembles. It is what triggers the explosive amplification and the mid-level cutoff on the GFS (and 12z ICON).

[eduggs]

21 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

it's notably more amped though

 

Agreed. The UK is pretty damn close to something good. Great 12z so far with GFS, GFS-AI, ICON, and UK upping the ante. Only the Canadian is being stubborn.

[EasternLI]

12z Euro AI on the more amped train.

[MJO812]

Euro took a big step to the gfs

[snowman19]

12 hours ago, Neblizzard said:

He loves weenies and is a limited poster.  

Hi! Remember this doozy from you back on December 19, 2010: 

 

 

[NEG NAO]

10 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

12z Euro AI on the more amped train.

NOT that it matters this far out BUT the Euro AI is too warm in the Metro

[Stormlover74]

Just now, NEG NAO said:

NOT that it matters this far out BUT the Euro AI is too warm in the Metro

That's prior to the cold air arrival

[NEG NAO]

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

That's prior to the cold air arrival

no its not if you are talking later this week=BUT don't make a big deal about it could change

 

[WeatherGeek2025]

euro ai has mostly light precip, sorry i was wrong 

[brooklynwx99]

the main differences between the GFS and the ECMWF are that the kicker on the ECMWF is more defined, hurting amplification, and the TPV is also closer to the trough. we'll see how those features trend

overall, though, they are actually pretty similar from a synoptic standpoint now

[Tar Heel Snow]

40 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro took a big step to the gfs

So did the Ukie. Happy to have both on our side given its verification scores this year. 

At this range it's great to just have most of the major players at least keep the players on the field while we hope for them to line up in our favor.

[snowman19]

EPS and GEFS definitely not as robust as the operationals, neither is the EURO AI. Waiting on GEPS

EDIT: GEPS not robust at all

[Franklin0529]

2 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

This is still the long range imo. The mid range is when models will really identify all key players and start to resolve all the vortices flying around. That's usually when the rug pull happens. Not saying it will happen this time, but we've seen storms go poof (especially over the past 6 years) because of all the energy flying around that isn't properly resolved until we get closer in time.

It's under 120 hrs. I wouldn't call that long range 

[SnoSki14]

You can see how the GFS solution can happen but it also doesn't take much for it not to. 

[Lucy Pull]

34 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

EPS and GEFS definitely not as robust as the operationals, neither is the EURO AI. Waiting on GEPS

GEPS not biting. Handles the energy north of New England completely differently.

Liked the movement towards some more amped members on the EPS/GEFS from their previous runs. Have to see a few more cycles. Definitely need to thread the needle to see something substantial. 

[snowman19]

5 minutes ago, Lucy Pull said:

GEPS not biting. Handles the energy north of New England completely differently.

Liked the movement towards some more amped members on the EPS/GEFS from their previous runs. Have to see a few more cycles. Definitely need to thread the needle to see something substantial. 

Correct. The EPS and GEFS for sure are not as enthused as the operationals and the GEPS definitely isn’t enthused. Even the EURO AI was much less robust than the op EURO

[RU848789]

People do realize that making a thread on an "event" early has no bearing on how that event pans out, don't they?  It only impacts how posters react to the outcome from that event.  I like early threads, simply because it makes it easier to keep all the relevant posts on that event in one thread, as opposed to having them dispersed throughout other long range posts.  Just my $0.02.  

[RU848789]

2 hours ago, David-LI said:

12z GFS

Not sure I've ever seen a larger discrepancy between an Op and its ensemble mean (although the Op posted here is Kuchera, so it's likely inflated).

 

[vegan_edible]

[TJW014]

Zero interest in next week's system until today/tonight's system gets on out of here. Till then, it's flip-flop mania. 

[the_other_guy]

16 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:

Looks like NYC is not in that box… just saying