the_other_guy Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 38 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: There were plenty of extremely warm winters and below 10 inch seasons. I literally lived them. I am seeing the exact same thing but a couple degrees warmer. that last sentence is important and needs to be acknowledged more. these winters are warmer and with less snow than they would have been 20 years ago. 94-95 today could have been a shutout or single digit snowfall. The 2020s have the worst avg snowfall in recorded NYC history. Lets see if that changes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 UKMET is a non event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 11 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: Can I make a thread @BxEngine? wait 1 more day after 12Z Sunday runs IF there is more consensus with other models - disregard GFS snow totals now....... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 3 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: UKMET is a non event it's notably more amped though 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 UKMET is a non event Don't let them break your spirit . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Krs4Lfe Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 10 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: that last sentence is important and needs to be acknowledged more. these winters are warmer and with less snow than they would have been 20 years ago. 94-95 today could have been a shutout or single digit snowfall. The 2020s have the worst avg snowfall in recorded NYC history. Lets see if that changes We would need some very good snow seasons in order to surpass the worst average snowfall in recorded NYC history. A very tall ask in a warming world Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 On a different note. Regarding today. What happened? 4 or 5 days ago, forecast highs here were supposed to be 55-60. It's 37.6F 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 8 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said: On a different note. Regarding today. What happened? 4 or 5 days ago, forecast highs here were supposed to be 55-60. It's 37.6F Inaccurate forecast that far out - thats why we have to keep our options open about later next week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 hour ago, eduggs said: A caution flag on relying on ensembles for next week. First I should say that I'm a big fan of ensemble modeling. But there is a theory that they do not perform well with explosive and anomalous trof amplification. Seeing the GFS operational at only 5 days out with its superior resolution have virtually no support from its ensembles for more than one run should raise a caution flag. Add to that the GFS-AI and ECM-AI which tend to dampen waves compared to operational models looking more amplified than the CMC, UK, and ECM. It is possible that a relatively fine-scale shortwave with embedded vorticity might contribute to rapid amplification that is not well resolved by ensemble modeling. I would not be so bold as to predict this. But I think it's something to consider. This shortwave feature may not be well resolved by ensembles. It is what triggers the explosive amplification and the mid-level cutoff on the GFS (and 12z ICON). 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 21 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: it's notably more amped though Agreed. The UK is pretty damn close to something good. Great 12z so far with GFS, GFS-AI, ICON, and UK upping the ante. Only the Canadian is being stubborn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 12z Euro AI on the more amped train. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Euro took a big step to the gfs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 12 hours ago, Neblizzard said: He loves weenies and is a limited poster. Hi! Remember this doozy from you back on December 19, 2010: 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 10 minutes ago, EasternLI said: 12z Euro AI on the more amped train. NOT that it matters this far out BUT the Euro AI is too warm in the Metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Just now, NEG NAO said: NOT that it matters this far out BUT the Euro AI is too warm in the Metro That's prior to the cold air arrival Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: That's prior to the cold air arrival no its not if you are talking later this week=BUT don't make a big deal about it could change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 euro ai has mostly light precip, sorry i was wrong 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 the main differences between the GFS and the ECMWF are that the kicker on the ECMWF is more defined, hurting amplification, and the TPV is also closer to the trough. we'll see how those features trend overall, though, they are actually pretty similar from a synoptic standpoint now 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 40 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Euro took a big step to the gfs So did the Ukie. Happy to have both on our side given its verification scores this year. At this range it's great to just have most of the major players at least keep the players on the field while we hope for them to line up in our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 EPS and GEFS definitely not as robust as the operationals, neither is the EURO AI. Waiting on GEPS EDIT: GEPS not robust at all 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 2 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said: This is still the long range imo. The mid range is when models will really identify all key players and start to resolve all the vortices flying around. That's usually when the rug pull happens. Not saying it will happen this time, but we've seen storms go poof (especially over the past 6 years) because of all the energy flying around that isn't properly resolved until we get closer in time. It's under 120 hrs. I wouldn't call that long range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 You can see how the GFS solution can happen but it also doesn't take much for it not to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lucy Pull Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 34 minutes ago, snowman19 said: EPS and GEFS definitely not as robust as the operationals, neither is the EURO AI. Waiting on GEPS GEPS not biting. Handles the energy north of New England completely differently. Liked the movement towards some more amped members on the EPS/GEFS from their previous runs. Have to see a few more cycles. Definitely need to thread the needle to see something substantial. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 5 minutes ago, Lucy Pull said: GEPS not biting. Handles the energy north of New England completely differently. Liked the movement towards some more amped members on the EPS/GEFS from their previous runs. Have to see a few more cycles. Definitely need to thread the needle to see something substantial. Correct. The EPS and GEFS for sure are not as enthused as the operationals and the GEPS definitely isn’t enthused. Even the EURO AI was much less robust than the op EURO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 People do realize that making a thread on an "event" early has no bearing on how that event pans out, don't they? It only impacts how posters react to the outcome from that event. I like early threads, simply because it makes it easier to keep all the relevant posts on that event in one thread, as opposed to having them dispersed throughout other long range posts. Just my $0.02. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 2 hours ago, David-LI said: 12z GFS Not sure I've ever seen a larger discrepancy between an Op and its ensemble mean (although the Op posted here is Kuchera, so it's likely inflated). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegan_edible Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Zero interest in next week's system until today/tonight's system gets on out of here. Till then, it's flip-flop mania. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 16 minutes ago, vegan_edible said: Looks like NYC is not in that box… just saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 4 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: Looks like NYC is not in that box… just saying The box just shifted east from the old map 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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