January 2026 OBS and Discussion

[NorthShoreWx]

24 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Those winters had several periods of thaws-1st half of Jan 2014 was a torch and Feb 2015 also had a 2-3 week warmup

2014	1	1	19	32	0.00	0.0005
2014	1	2	15	31	0.04	3.0		1
2014	1	3	8	16	0.81	5.5		9
2014	1	4	0	28	0.00	0.0		8
2014	1	5	10	50	0.00	0.0		7
2014	1	6	25	58	0.36	0.0005		T
2014	1	7	6	25	0.13	0.0		T
2014	1	8	8	24	0.00	0.0		T
2014	1	9	17	32	0.00	0.0		T
2014	1	10	17	35	0.0005	0.0005		T
2014	1	11	35	59	0.30	0.0
2014	1	12	30	51	0.70	0.0
2014	1	13	26	51	0.00	0.0
2014	1	14	39	47	0.13	0.0
2014	1	15	31	47	0.57	0.0
2014	1	16	30	39	0.00	0.0005
2014	1	17	24	45	0.0005	0.0
2014	1	18	28	46	0.0005	0.0005
2014	1	19	26	36	0.00	0.0
2014	1	20	31	46	0.00	0.0
2014	1	21	13	32	0.00	0.0
2014	1	22	6	14	0.47	8.0		T
2014	1	23	7	22	0.00	1.0		8
2014	1	24	10	20	0.00	1.5		7
2014	1	25	17	34	0.00	0.0		6
2014	1	26	16	30	0.10	0.0005		5
2014	1	27	20	47	0.0005	0.0		4
2014	1	28	12	20	0.00	0.1		2
2014	1	29	11	26	0.11	1.5		4
2014	1	30	5	32	0.00	0.0		3
2014	1	31	16	43	0.00	0.0		3
2014	2	1	28	45	0.00	0.0		3
2014	2	2	31	58	0.00	0.0		2
2014	2	3	28	39	0.51	8.8		4
2014	2	4	21	40	0.61	0.0		9
2014	2	5	28	33	1.04	3.1		11
2014	2	6	19	30	0.00	0.0		10
2014	2	7	16	34	0.04	0.0		9
2014	2	8	18	29	0.00	0.0		9
2014	2	9	16	31	0.00	1.3		8
2014	2	10	18	30	0.09	0.0		9
2014	2	11	13	27	0.00	0.0		9
2014	2	12	13	26	0.00	0.0005		9
2014	2	13	26	32	1.45	12.5		17
2014	2	14	27	43	0.38	1.0		18
2014	2	15	25	36	0.20	2.9		17
2014	2	16	21	29	0.00	0.2		20
2014	2	17	16	32	0.00	0.0		19
2014	2	18	18	37	0.00	4.0		20
2014	2	19	23	45	0.23	0.0		17
2014	2	20	30	51	0.28	0.0		15
2014	2	21	35	52	0.03	0.0		13
2014	2	22	31	53	0.11	0.0		10
2014	2	23	31	56	0.00	0.0		8
2014	2	24	25	44	0.02	0.0005		6
2014	2	25	22	34	0.00	0.0005		5
2014	2	26	16	32	0.0005	1.2		5
2014	2	27	7	33	0.06	0.3		6
2014	2	28	10	26	0.02	0.0		5

 

2015	1	1	18	39	0.00	0.0
2015	1	2	28	44	0.00	0.0
2015	1	3	25	43	0.00	0.0005
2015	1	4	40	54	0.82	0.0
2015	1	5	19	50	0.25	0.0
2015	1	6	14	22	0.00	0.5
2015	1	7	8	26	0.04	0.0005		1
2015	1	8	7	23	0.0005	0.0		T
2015	1	9	16	33	0.00	1.7		1
2015	1	10	14	25	0.11	0.0		2
2015	1	11	10	35	0.00	0.0		1
2015	1	12	33	36	0.00	0.0		1
2015	1	13	20	35	0.69	0.0
2015	1	14	19	27	0.0005	0.0005
2015	1	15	20	35	0.0005	0.0
2015	1	16	19	43	0.00	0.0
2015	1	17	15	28	0.00	0.0
2015	1	18	20	48	0.00	0.0
2015	1	19	35	43	1.18	0.0
2015	1	20	30	41	0.00	0.0
2015	1	21	24	34	0.00	0.0005
2015	1	22	29	40	0.0005	0.0005
2015	1	23	20	42	0.00	0.0
2015	1	24	33	36	0.00	4.0		4
2015	1	25	27	44	0.83	0.0		3
2015	1	26	23	27	0.00	5.0		2
2015	1	27	15	24	1.64	10.0		15
2015	1	28	15	30	0.00	0.0005		14
2015	1	29	13	36	0.00	0.0		13
2015	1	30	19	36	0.02	0.8		13
2015	1	31	12	26	0.02	0.0		12
2015	2	1	7	40	0.00	0.4		12
2015	2	2	16	32	0.00	7.9		14
2015	2	3	8	27	1.06	0.0		16
2015	2	4	9	42	0.00	0.0		15
2015	2	5	13	37	0.0005	0.9		13
2015	2	6	5	28	0.05	0.0		13
2015	2	7	8	34	0.00	0.0005		13
2015	2	8	24	39	0.0005	0.0		12
2015	2	9	22	25	0.00	0.3		12
2015	2	10	23	37	0.06	0.0005		12
2015	2	11	17	31	0.00	0.0		11
2015	2	12	16	41	0.00	0.2		11
2015	2	13	8	22	0.01	0.0		10
2015	2	14	4	33	0.00	1.5		10
2015	2	15	4	26	0.07	0.0		12
2015	2	16	1	19	0.00	0.0		11
2015	2	17	9	24	0.00	4.0		15
2015	2	18	6	31	0.20	0.0		14
2015	2	19	8	24	0.00	0.0005		13
2015	2	20	1	19	0.0005	0.0		12
2015	2	21	-2	32	0.64	3.5		12
2015	2	22	28	42	0.30	0.9		14
2015	2	23	8	34	0.00	0.0		13
2015	2	24	-1	23	0.00	0.0005		13
2015	2	25	10	39	0.0005	0.0		13
2015	2	26	21	27	0.00	0.0005		12
2015	2	27	17	29	0.0005	0.0		12
2015	2	28	12	30	0.00	0.0		12

[Krs4Lfe]

45 minutes ago, steve392 said:

Valentines day blizzard 2014 and the cold that month was epic! 

The cold during 2014 and 2015 was very impressive. January 2018 as well. A few other periods since then have been mighty cold. 2014 and 2015 were amazing back to back winters. Could you even imagine something like that happening these days?

[Big Jims Videos]

couple of stray flurries at my Wall Twp office.  I will enjoy a break from the relentless cold for a few days. So will my heating bill. 

[Brian5671]

4 minutes ago, Big Jims Videos said:

couple of stray flurries at my Wall Twp office.  I will enjoy a break from the relentless cold for a few days. So will my heating bill. 

Got one of my highest gas bills in a few years here for December

[North and West]

14 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Got one of my highest gas bills in a few years here for December

put a sweater on!

[weatherpruf]

1 hour ago, anthonymm said:

it does happen. 2013-2015 was pretty much wall to wall cold. it's just rarer now with CC.

it was common in the 90s to see extended mild temps. with a few years exceptions, obviously

[Brian5671]

22 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

it was common in the 90s to see extended mild temps. with a few years exceptions, obviously

if you look at it that way then yes-those years 13-15 were cold....21-22, 22-23 and 23-24 were torches too

[MJO812]

[donsutherland1]

Milder weather will begin to overspread the region tomorrow. A few snow flurries are possible during the morning with some sprinkles and showers possible later in the day. 

Some rain is possible on Friday into Saturday. The week will conclude with highs finishing in the 50s across much of the region on Friday and Saturday. Cooler air will likely return Sunday or Monday. 

Afterward, conditions could become more favorable for both cold and snowfall, especially if the PNA goes positive. It will likely be a few more days before the guidance reaches the high-skill timeframe for teleconnection forecasts. 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around December 31. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.63°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter.

The SOI was +9.43 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.262 today. 

 

[WeatherGeek2025]

slow down the main low riding the east coast by 12 hours and you have a MECS at the minimum!

[NEG NAO]

21 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

slow down the main low riding the east coast by 12 hours and you have a MECS at the minimum!

first we need a trough to develop in the east with proper positioning to support a coastal tract and negative tilted trough increases SECS and MECS possibilties.

[jm1220]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Another Central PA Middle Finger winter so far. Been a defining feature for 20 years now. Under 10” so far for Williamsport to Harrisburg over to Altoona and State College. In and of itself that’s not terrible but compared to climo way worse than here. 

[Monty]

4 hours ago, Krs4Lfe said:

The cold during 2014 and 2015 was very impressive. January 2018 as well. A few other periods since then have been mighty cold. 2014 and 2015 were amazing back to back winters. Could you even imagine something like that happening these days?

Of course we can. Anyone with a reasonable attention span and memory could. It was 10 years ago, please stop acting like warm winters on the east coast are etched into the tablets of Moses. Your negativity is exhausting. 

[WeatherGeek2025]

1 hour ago, NEG NAO said:

first we need a trough to develop in the east with proper positioning to support a coastal tract and negative tilted trough increases SECS and MECS possibilties.

looks good to me at this point... Two chances we get a developing storm there back to back

[bluewave]

21 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Do you consider a "benchmark storm" synonymous with a KU?  

I think there can be future disagreements about cause and effect with regard to the association between such a storm and higher winter snowfall (which you seem to have defined as over 25 or 30").  I'm not talking about years like 1983 and 2006 which clearly fit with your preferred scenario.

It's interesting and worthwhile to discuss these associations, but sometimes they seem a bit forced.

I also think Central Park is not a good test case with the data challenges that have been well documented there.

The snowfall data for all our major reporting sites including EWR, NYC, LGA, JFK, and ISP shows a similar pattern since the mid 90s. Every year that any of those stations reached 25”+ featured at least one NESIS KU scale event.

Since all the stations show the same pattern, it takes the NYC undermeasurement issues out of the equation. I will use all the years since 1995-1996 that Newark reached 25”+ and show the NESIS events since they are reasonably close to NYC and use a professional contract observer.

While the KUs have been necessary, they haven’t always been sufficient for Newark to reach 25”. This was the case in 2022 when Islip was closer to the KU tracks and Newark was a little too far west to go 25”+.

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/rsi/nesis

All 25”+ seasons at Newark since 1995-1996 and KU events

20-21…..45.7”……12-14 to 12-18…Cat 2….1-30 to 2-3 cat 3

17-18……39.4”…….1-3 to 1-5…3-1….Cat 1….Cat 1…3-11…Cat 2….3-20 to 3-22 Cat 1

16-17…….30.0”……1-4 to 1-8….Cat 2….2-9 to 2-10 Cat 1…3-12 to 3-15 Cat 3

15-16…….32.8”…..1-22 to 1-24 Cat 4

14-15……..46.4”…..1-25 to 1-28…Cat 2…1-29 to 2-3…Cat 3…2-8 to 2-10 Cat 1..2-20 to 2-22 Cat 1…3-3 to 3-5…Cat 1

13-14……61.1”…..12-13 to 12-16 Cat 2…12-30 to 1-3….Cat 2…1-29 to 2-4 Cat 3..2-4 to 2-5 Cat 2..2-11 to 2-14 Cat 3

12-13….29.5”…..2-7 to 2-10 Cat 3…3-4 to 3-9 Cat 2

10-11….68.2”….12-24 to 12-28….Cat 3….1-9 to 1-13 Cat 3….1-26 to 1-27 Cat 1

09-10…47.9”…..12-18 to 12-21 Cat 2…2-4 to 2-7 Cat 3….2-9 to 2-11 Cat 3…2-23 to 2-28 Cat 3

08-09…27.1”….1-17 to 1-19 Cat 2…3-1 to 3-3 Cat 1

05-06…..37.9”…..2-12 to 2-13 Cat 3

04-05….43.4”…..1-21 to 1-24 Cat 4…Cat 2

03-04….47.8”….12-14 to 12-16…Cat 2….1-27 to 1-28 Cat 1

02-03…..53.1”….2-6 to 2-8 Cat 1….2-15 to 2-18 Cat 4….3-3 to 3-6 Cat 1

00-01……39.3”….12-30 to 12-31…Cat 1…..1-19 to 1-21 Cat 1

95-96….78.4”…..1-6 to 1-8…Cat 5 with numerous other heavy coastal benchmark snowstorms

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[doncat]

My station precip for 2025 was 33.96".... This was the driest on my record of 45 years. The two previous driest are 37.68" in 2001 and 38.26" in 2016.

[NEG NAO]

Happy 30th Anniversary

[bluewave]

12 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Another Central PA Middle Finger winter so far. Been a defining feature for 20 years now. Under 10” so far for Williamsport to Harrisburg over to Altoona and State College. In and of itself that’s not terrible but compared to climo way worse than here. 

State College has seen one of the steepest snowfall declines in the Northeast since the 1960s when they lost the Miller A track just east of the Apps around 20 years ago.

 

 

[SACRUS]

31 / 28 cloudy.   Warmup commenced today with areas into the upper 30s - low 40s.  50s for many Wed - Thu and Fri ahead of a general 1 inch (ish) rainfaill Saturday.  Beyond there near normal 1/12 - 1/16.  Likely a back and forth below - near - above normal - tilted below beyond there 1/17 - beyond.

 

[MJO812]

17 minutes ago, bluewave said:

State College has seen one of the steepest snowfall declines in the Northeast since the 1960s when they lost the Miller A track just east of the Apps around 20 years ago.

 

 

Wow they over 100 inches over there.

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 72 (2007)
NYC: 72 (2007)
LGA: 72 (2007)
JFKK : 71 (2007)


Lows:

EWR: 6 (2018)
NYC: -2 (1896)
LGA: 8 (2018)
JFK: 7 (2018)

Historical:

1821: A major snowstorm finally came to a end across the Mid-Atlantic States into southern New England. 18 inches of snow fell at Philadelphia, PA, 14 inches at New York City, NY and 12 inches at Washington, DC. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1856: Thoreau’s 'long and snowy winter' continued with the season’s deepest snowfall. 18 inches fell at Providence, RI and 12 inches of snow fell at Boston, MA. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)
 

1880 - Seattle, WA, was in the midst of their worst snowstorm of record. Hundreds of barns were destroyed, and transportation was brought to a standstill, as the storm left the city buried under four feet of snow. (David Ludlum)

1884 - The temperature dipped to one degree below zero at Atlanta, GA. It marked the final day of a severe arctic outbreak in the South and Midwest. (David Ludlum)

 

1886: The "Great Blizzard of 1886" struck the Midwest with high winds, subzero temperatures, and heavy snowfall. These conditions caused as many as 100 deaths, and 80% of the cattle in Kansas perished.


1918: A major snowstorm hit parts of the Midwest. Officially Chicago, IL recorded 14.4 inches of snow with 1.44 inches of liquid equivalent. This established a new daily precipitation record. This contributed to January 1918 as having the greatest monthly snowfall with a total of 42.5 inches, nearly four times their monthly average. This storm gave Rockford, IL one of their largest snow amounts ever recorded. A record 16.3 inches blanketed the town, their greatest single storm total. This contributed to their snowiest January on record with 36.1 inches just 0.2 inches shy of an entire normal winter season. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1942: Not a good pothole day in Pipestone, MN. Temperature rose from 32 °F below zero to 41 °F above a 73 °F temperature rise in 24 hours. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1950: The maximum temperature for the date in Washington, DC is 72°F. (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA)

1968: International Falls, Minnesota: The all-time record low is set in International Falls. Temperatures on this day drop to a bone-chilling minus 46° F. (Ref. Wx. Doctor)

1983: All 50 states had at least one location that was below freezing on this date, an unusual occurrence.(Ref. Wilson Wx. History)
(Bob Ryan's 2000 Almanac) (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1987 - A storm moving across the western U.S. spread heavy snow into the Central Rockies. Casper WY received 14 inches of snow in 24 hours, a January record for that location. Big Piney WY reported 17 inches of snow. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - It was a bad day for chickens. Heavy snow in Arkansas, with totals ranging up to 16 inches at Heber Springs, claimed the lives of 3.5 million chickens, and snow and ice up to three inches thick claimed the lives of another 1.75 million chickens in north central Texas. Up to 18 inches of snow blanketed Oklahoma, with Oklahoma City reporting a record 12 inches of snow in 24 hours. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - A "bonafide blizzard" ripped through south central and southeastern Idaho. Strong winds, gusting to 60 mph at the Fort Hall Indian Reservation, whipped the snow into drifts five feet high, and produced wind chill readings as cold as 35 degrees below zero. The blizzard prompted an Idaho Falls air controller to remark that "the snow is blowing so hard you can't see the fog".(National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Rain and gale force winds prevailed along the Northern Pacific Coast. Winds at Astoria OR gusted to 65 mph. Unseasonably warm weather prevailed over Florida. Five cities reported record high temperatures for the date, including Miami with a reading of 86 degrees. The hot spot in the nation was West Palm Beach with a high of 87 degrees. (National Weather Summary)


1992: The sun peeks out in Milwaukee, WI, for the first time since December 21, 1991, setting a city record for consecutive cloudy days. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1993: A nearly continuous 5-day snowstorm brought a record 23.3 inches of snow to Salt Lake City, UT, and left a record 26 inches of snow on the ground. A state of emergency was declared. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1994: 55.5 inches of snow fell in twenty-four hours at Alta UT, setting a new record for the location. A total of seventy inches fell between the 4th and the 6th. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

 

1996: A severe nor'easter paralyzed the East Coast from January 6 to the 8. In Washington D.C., this storm is also known as the "Great Furlough Storm" because it occurred during the 1996 federal government shutdown. Snowfall amounts from this event include 47 inches in Big Meadows, Virginia; 30.7" in Philadelphia; 27.8" in Newark; 24.6" at the Dulles International Airport; 24.2" in Trenton; 24" in Providence; 22.5" in Baltimore; 18.2" in Boston; 17.1" in D.C.; and 9.6" in Pittsburgh.


 

[SACRUS]

1996:  THE BLIZZARD OF JANUARY 7-8, 1996 The storm began on Saturday the 6th and continued at an amazingly steady rate until mid-afternoon Sunday, January 7th. By that time, 13 to 17 inches of snow had accumulated in most areas with up to 20 inches in the distant western suburbs. The snow bands were accompanied by lightning, thunder and whiteout conditions at times. Monday morning January 8th, the snow squalls had tapered off leaving the Washington metro area buried in 15 to 25 inches of snow.     The blizzard of 1996 was just the first of 3 snowstorms to hit the Washington area during the snowy week of January 7-12. On the 9th an Alberta clipper storm center passed directly over the region, dropping another quick shot of surprising heavy snowfall in the area. The western suburbs were dusted with only an inch of snow while up to 6 inches of snow fell in eastern areas such as Prince George's and Charles Counties. January 10th was a nice sunny day with high temperatures reaching a rather balmy 34 degrees at National Airport. The third and final snow took place on the 12th as a quick moving coastal storm dropping 5 to 12 inches of snow across the region.
This storm was incredibly massive and truly historic in its scope as many all-time snow records were broken over a large area. Records included 24.9 inches in Roanoke, Virginia; 30.7 inches in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania; 27.8 inches Newark, New Jersey; and 14.4 inches as far away as Cincinnati, Ohio. The snowfall at National Airport measured 17.1 inches while the snowfall at Dulles accumulated to 24.6 inches. Other snowfall totals included 21 inches in Fredericksburg, Virginia; 22.5 inches in Baltimore, Maryland; and 25.7 inches in Rockville, Maryland. Generally snowfall amounts between Washington and Boston were between 17 to 30 inches.
(p. 96-101 Washington Weather Book 2002 by Ambrose, Henry, Weiss)

[ForestHillWx]

‘96: the storm that hooked me in my youth. I remember watching Al Rocker (in his heavier days) keep upping projected totals at every check in.

That storm had it all, heavy snow, winds and cold temps. My dad was gone plowing with a front end loader for the next 48 hours. We didn’t go back to school until 2 days post storm. 

Interestingly we grabbed over 32” in the January 2016 storm, but to me ‘96 is the king. 

 

[WeatherGeek2025]

anyone know the NyC December temp +-?

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Wow they over 100 inches over there.

There used to be plenty of storm tracks that were good for that region-Miller A coast huggers mainly like 3/93 and 3/94. Now those have largely gone extinct or they develop too late and blast north and east of them. Other storm types dry up east of the Allegheny Ridge and redevelop for our area like this past clipper, SWFE events are sleetfests or freezing rain, and 95% of lake effect dries up from downslope. So the combination of those create the middle finger snow maps when you look at PA. You still rarely get decent ones like Dec 2020-was good there but nothing like 25 years ago. I’d say at this point it’s more than a temporary shift, it’s a larger more permanent shift away from storm types that favor them. I wouldn’t say it’s temps since they’re still cold enough much of the time. 

[uofmiami]

23 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

anyone know the NyC December temp +-?

It’s in the December thread:

 

[NittanyWx]

This next +PNA lacks as much of a source region cold out west and as much HP associated with it, hence the chinook look to things midcon.  In theory that should mean less in the way of the vodka cold/dry in Jan that was a staple of much of December.  

That source region should slowly start to rebuild around MLK weekend and i suspect youll have a hard time keeping the northern tier from leaking colder once that piece returns.

 

[MANDA]

2 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

Happy 30th Anniversary

Great memories of that storm.  Had 28" at my then location in southern Morris County.  The duration of the storm was impressive and the synoptic development was text book!  Still have the old difax maps.

[Stormlover74]

Just now, MANDA said:

Great memories of that storm.  Had 28" at my then location in southern Morris County.  The duration of the storm was impressive and the synoptic development was text book!  Still have the old difax maps.

I still remember the forecast the day before was for 1 to 2 feet for central and south nj and 6 to 10 for nyc. Of course nyc had that much by Sunday afternoon

[MANDA]

1 hour ago, ForestHillWx said:

‘96: the storm that hooked me in my youth. I remember watching Al Rocker (in his heavier days) keep upping projected totals at every check in.

That storm had it all, heavy snow, winds and cold temps. My dad was gone plowing with a front end loader for the next 48 hours. We didn’t go back to school until 2 days post storm. 

Interestingly we grabbed over 32” in the January 2016 storm, but to me ‘96 is the king. 

 

Same here.   Had slightly more in 2016 (31") and that was a great storm as well but 96 was just special.