26th-27th event, coming at us like a wounded duck.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

18z GFS looks a hair SW of 12z. 

Yeah definitely looks a bit worse 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

At least in this area, we’re hoping the banding ends up north of modeling. It’s probably never going to show up on a model run.

I could see this area getting 2-3” or nothing 

[moneypitmike]

38 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Updated map and even a blog post

https://weatherwiz.blogspot.com/2025/12/friday-december-26-2025-southern-new.html

The only issue with this is that you have my new digs in the 1-2 range.  Might want to reassess that part. 

[weatherwiz]

1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Nicely done 

We have very similar thoughts on this. But you’ve been consistent since multiple days ago…took me a few days to catch on  

[dendrite]

Looking at things a bit...most of the modeling seems to have good ratios in the SW 1/3 of CT back to about POU and into LI. There's good omega in that H5-6 layer where the max DGZ is even though that warm nose/fronto tries to punch in around H7 in NYC metro. The lift tails off pretty quickly N and E of there. Maybe a period of 12-15:1 avg ratios in that max zone and then stick closer to 10-12:1 near a DDH-PVD line. Whoever gets in on the fringes in that 0.15" or less area is likely battling the low level RH and having some of the crystals getting eaten up a bit. Maybe a little OES enhancement along the Cape too? Here's a little x-section from the 3k nam for tomorrow evening. 

I'll be lucky to get a flurry here. That wind is roaring right now too...have had a few 35mph gusts on the Davis which is probably more like 45mph with better siting.

[Ginx snewx]

18 z Euro 10 to 1 everywhere add a couple to each

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

18 z Euro 10 to 1 everywhere add a couple to each

Another tickle north. I’d take that and run here. Cover the ground 

[TalcottWx]

21 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Looking at things a bit...most of the modeling seems to have good ratios in the SW 1/3 of CT back to about POU and into LI. There's good omega in that H5-6 layer where the max DGZ is even though that warm nose/fronto tries to punch in around H7 in NYC metro. The lift tails off pretty quickly N and E of there. Maybe a period of 12-15:1 avg ratios in that max zone and then stick closer to 10-12:1 near a DDH-PVD line. Whoever gets in on the fringes in that 0.15" or less area is likely battling the low level RH and having some of the crystals getting eaten up a bit. Maybe a little OES enhancement along the Cape too? Here's a little x-section from the 3k nam for tomorrow evening. 

I'll be lucky to get a flurry here. That wind is roaring right now too...have had a few 35mph gusts on the Davis which is probably more like 45mph with better siting.

Hopefully it's east enough for Rev, will be close. Even here, but I'm safer prob.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

18 z Euro 10 to 1 everywhere add a couple to each

That’s a good bump NE, Poughkeepsie to Tolland band there 

[ORH_wxman]

Euro went NE a bit. Prob gets almost all of CT into 4”+ now. Except maybe extreme E or NE zones. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Euro went NE a bit. Prob gets almost all of CT into 4”+ now. Except maybe extreme E or NE zones. 

Solidly advisory here now. I’d honestly take 2-4 and run if we can score it. This was nothing until last night 

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro went NE a bit. Prob gets almost all of CT into 4”+ now. Except maybe extreme E or NE zones. 

All of CT 4 plus on Euro 

[ineedsnow]

Let's get another bump.at 0z ill take 2 and run though

[EastonSN+]

No more bumps pls.

[Damage In Tolland]

 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

 

Congrats! Christmas Miracle in Tolland! 

[TalcottWx]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

No more bumps pls.

We bump 

[TalcottWx]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Congrats! Christmas Miracle in Tolland! 

You love to see it

[Baroclinic Zone]

Euro/NAM deadly duo

[EastonSN+]

Just now, TalcottWx said:

We bump 

I am rooting for the GFS and RGEM lol.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Congrats! Christmas Miracle in Tolland! 

When will the NE bumps stop though? 

[EastonSN+]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

When will the NE bumps stop though? 

That's what I am worried about.

[weatherwiz]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

When will the NE bumps stop though? 

Once the storm passes 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

When will the NE bumps stop though? 

I would not discount NAM and Euro, they may be wrong, but I’d be leery of tossing them. Could see a few more bumps 

[ineedsnow]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

When will the NE bumps stop though? 

Honestly I think it continues.. one of those last 24hr moves except we're on the right side for once.  

[EastonSN+]

3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I would not discount NAM and Euro, they may be wrong, but I’d be leery of tossing them. Could see a few more bumps 

They were pretty wrong January 2015.

[Damage In Tolland]

22 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I would not discount NAM and Euro, they may be wrong, but I’d be leery of tossing them. Could see a few more bumps 

Have you been reading my posts the last 3 days ? It was basically me and Wxwatcher explaining why it would come NE and get snows into parts of NNE. As soon as we saw that 6z Nam run this morning with the warm tongue it was clear 

[SouthCoastMA]

18z EUROAI looks closer to 6z again, a bump back NE 

[ineedsnow]

18z Ukie bumped north

[WxWatcher007]

lol Euro gets snow even up here. 

Final call map. Like I said earlier--a little more aggressive than most because I believe the heaviest banding will end up in CT. I think this is still pretty reasonable.