26th-27th event, coming at us like a wounded duck.

[EastonSN+]

[The 4 Seasons]

29 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Could be right but seems quite a bit low imo

[weatherwiz]

12z GFS bufkit looks good for anywhere from 2-4/3-5" for BDR. Decent front end thump before dry air works in aloft. 

[Kitz Craver]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

12z GFS bufkit looks good for anywhere from 2-4/3-5" for BDR. Decent front end thump before dry air works in aloft. 

That’s pretty far east as well based on your prior analysis 

[mahk_webstah]

I don’t know if the tendency in the miles is to make the blocking stronger right now, but I feel like these things always end up further north and east when there’s this kind of battle with confluence. I don’t mean all the way up here, but I think more of southern New England should get a decent snow. and may be up into western mass.

[weatherwiz]

Just now, Kitz Craver said:

That’s pretty far east as well based on your prior analysis 

Encouraging to see, but meanwhile Waterbury was not so great...probably 1-2". 

But this just goes to show that there will be an extreme cutoff with this. A quick look of the euro looks solid for SW CT too. 

It's basically going to be what the northeast extent of accumulating snow is

[Kitz Craver]

Slightly more east, lol…  I confused Sikorsky for Bradley

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Kitz Craver said:

Slightly more east, lol…  I confused Sikorsky for Bradley

well I think its still an encouraging sign for places basically along a line say from Danbury to Bridgeport to Southbury-Oxford-Seymour. But the challenge with this is this will be a nowcast situation because ultimately its how the storm evolves which will dictate where the heaviest banding occurs. 

I am not as nervous about the dry air anymore...the dry air will work in behind the slug of precipitation and will probably help to enhance rates within the precipitation shield. What I would be most nervous about is where the strongest push of WAA occurrs. Given how far SW models have that it may be difficult to even get more than 2-3" back outside of southwestern Fairfield County. 

We're going to have to rely on mesos for this one I think and just hope the models can pick up on it

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Euro is solid advisory for SW CT. Very little elsehwere 

[weatherwiz]

I should add the drier air would probably just hold back accumulation potential. So say if it looked good for 5-6-7"...it may hold it down to more in the 3-5" range. 

This is BDR. Good solid ~3 hour window for moderate snow then the DGZ goes to crap as drier air works in. I just think this needs to be considered when forecasting the ceiling on this.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Watch up for the NYC metro and all of Fairfield County 

[Damage In Tolland]

Please can we just have 1-3 or 4” here. Is that too much to ask 

[weathafella]

Anthony gets some revenge 

[TalcottWx]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

This is horrific. 

[TalcottWx]

42 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Euro is solid advisory for SW CT. Very little elsehwere 

SW CT and Maine... My two favorites. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

5 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

This is horrific. 

Newly updated. 

[DJln491]

6 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Newly updated. 

2-3" for Norwich and New London?  Seems a bit of a stretch but ok

[tavwtby]

16 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Newly updated. 

can we please get a bump NE, I'd love to end December with at least close to double digit snowfall...

[weatherwiz]

Initial thoughts:

• Greatest uncertainty is the farther northeast into the state you go. 
• The greatest warm air advection is going to occur well to our southwest, from PA into NJ and likely clipping southwest Fairfield County. Where this occurs is critical because this is where the heaviest banding of snow will occur along with the heaviest rates and highest ratios. 
• I think there is room for some higher totals in southwest CT (possibly in the 6-8" range) but there are questions about drier air advecting in aloft and drying out the DGZ. This could result in a solid 2-3 hour window of moderate-to-heavy snow with snow quickly decreasing in intensity and snow growth become poor. This would also occur as the WAA diminishes. 
• It is also very possible the mesos are throwing us caution flags which need to be considered as many of the mesos essentially have one heavy band, with little outside of this band. That would fit the mold of this setup well as much of the forcing is tied into the strong WAA.

Might have time to update this tomorrow. Depends on what I have going on for Christmas after work.