Snow Potential Dec 26-27

[cannoliman42]

We are less than 36 hours from this event in NYC and the HRRR is showing over a foot of snow (with ratios) and NAM is showing nada. The 12z NAM will be very interesting.

 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, cannoliman42 said:

We are less than 36 hours from this event in NYC and the HRRR is showing over a foot of snow (with ratios) and NAM is showing nada. The 12z NAM will be very interesting.

 

I’m taking the HRRR + globals when the NAM is on its own like this. 

[winterwarlock]

54 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Imagine the chaotic forecast the NWS would have if they just used Modelology, and not Meteorology. Changing their forecast every couple hrs, when a new model run comes out. It would be ridiculous, and no one would pay them any mind.

to be fair, its been more than one model and more than one model nest. The issue is they ran with really high amounts early on, not sure why they started out at 5-8 

[HeadInTheClouds]

19 minutes ago, cannoliman42 said:

We are less than 36 hours from this event in NYC and the HRRR is showing over a foot of snow (with ratios) and NAM is showing nada. The 12z NAM will be very interesting.

 

The nam is an awful model and anybody who takes it over every other model is a fool. 

[winterwarlock]

58 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

who is this, thats incredibly bullish to put 10 inches amounts that far south

[EastonSN+]

The Nam came south by a lot

[sussexcountyobs]

1 minute ago, winterwarlock said:

who is this, thats incredibly bullish to put 10 inches amounts that far south

Steve D.

[MJO812]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

The Nam came south by a lot

Yep caved

[HeadInTheClouds]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Yep caved

I'm shocked. 

[forkyfork]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Yep caved

you still get a lot of sleet

[snywx]

4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

The Nam came south by a lot

Who is shocked by that? 

[mob1]

2 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

you still get a lot of sleet

I kind of like sleet, has some serious staying power (not that it matters much this time, there's a driving rainstorm just a few days later). 

3K with a solid shift south as well

[sussexcountyobs]

NWS has increased the amounts from 5-8" last evening. To 6-10" this morning for my area.

[winterwarlock]

8 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Steve D.

oh not a fan of his

[jconsor]

38 minutes ago, mob1 said:

HRRR moved north from 06Z but is still amazing verbatim 

The HRRR tends to be too wet at this range, so precip amounts are likely somewhat overdone.  The snow map is using dynamic snow:liquid ratio calculated by the HRRR.  What is interesting is the 12 to 13:1 ratios from western LI and NYC to NE NJ.

[brooklynwx99]

NAM has the main vortmax over upstate NY rather then into the metro like the euro and other models… i suspect that’s erroneous 

[wishcast_hater]

NWS has increased the amounts from 5-8" last evening. To 6-10" this morning for my area.

Meanwhile I don’t have any watches or advisories for my area. Very odd since everyone else has them.


.

[Northof78]

Wow, NAM now has -9C @ 850 during height of precipitation and low exiting southern tip of Delmarva….casual 100s of mile shift south. This being said, I would not out too much faith in this model getting any details right…trend is obvious though, back towards GFS/Euro

[mob1]

3K NAM shift 

[HeadInTheClouds]

1 minute ago, wishcast_hater said:

Meanwhile I don’t have any watches or advisories for my area. Very odd since everyone else has them.


.

Very odd indeed but NWS Albany is always late putting up watches and warnings. There should be a watch up with start time less than 36 hours away. Dutchess county needs 7 inches in 24 hours to reach warning criteria but to post nothing is ridiculous especially with holiday travel. They can always change to WWA or warning. 

[North and West]

Wow, NAM now has -9C @ 850 during height of precipitation and low exiting southern tip of Delmarva….casual 100s of mile shift south. This being said, I would not out too much faith in this model getting any details right…trend is obvious though, back towards GFS/Euro

.

[sussexcountyobs]

White Christmas here. It's been a few years. Merry Christmas all !

[mob1]

[qg_omega]

3K NAM spilts the forcing and NYC does very poor

[EastonSN+]

22 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

NAM has the main vortmax over upstate NY rather then into the metro like the euro and other models… i suspect that’s erroneous 

Forky is saying a lot of sleet for NYC. Is is a likely scenario?

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, qg_omega said:

3K NAM spilts the forcing and NYC does very poor

It just caved

[qg_omega]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It just caved

This is 12z

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Forky is saying a lot of sleet for NYC. Is is a likely scenario?

I doubt it

[EastonSN+]

Just now, MJO812 said:

I doubt it

Maybe he meant as the CURRENT NAM depicts. However it is still the northern most model.

[Northof78]

Could be a general depiction i see hear across most models of a general 5" - 7", but someone in that NW to SE band (roughly 50 miles wide)will get near 10"