Snow Potential Dec 26-27

[WeatherGeek2025]

A block is in place and it seems like the storm will go to our south with precipitation breaking out throughout our region Friday night as snow and snowing into Saturday. trying to narrow this down by Thursday. 

 

Discuss!

[MJO812]

Cmc is coming in colder. More press from the block.

[Stormlover74]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Cmc is coming in colder. More press from the block.

I dont even see a storm yet

Much slower and north of gfs

[Stormlover74]

Friday night sleetfest on cmc

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I dont even see a storm yet

Much slower and north of gfs

Yep further south and colder though.

[Big Jims Videos]

look at the last 3 runs of the Canadian. Definite shift. 

[David-LI]

Is the 12z UKIE out yet?

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, David-LI said:

Is the 12z UKIE out yet?

 

[brooklynwx99]

really easy to see how Friday's system trending colder and farther south increases the blocking due to stronger wave breaking, which then leads to a more favorable outcome for Monday

if the block keeps trending in this way, Monday might hold some high end potential, especially up by you guys. TBD

[steve392]

15th anniversary special from boxing day 2010!! Prayers lol

[WestBabylonWeather]

I want day after Xmas off can we have a nice little surprise 

[cleetussnow]

40 minutes ago, steve392 said:

15th anniversary special from boxing day 2010!! Prayers lol

Commend the idea and remembrance of an all timer, but Boxing Day repeat sin’t walking through that door.  
 

Back to this storm - have we forgot?  These things trend north.  I like where metro is sitting rn.  

[Stormlover74]

8 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

Commend the idea and remembrance of an all timer, but Boxing Day repeat sin’t walking through that door.  
 

Back to this storm - have we forgot?  These things trend north.  I like where metro is sitting rn.  

Ukie and cmc we don't want going any more north. 

[North and West]

C’mon, we just cancelled winter.


.

[sussexcountyobs]

Yes. As of now looks like snow for Friday with high of 25 forecasted out my way.

[donsutherland1]

For reference, I'll add this information here for second half of December PNA- snowstorms.

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Ukie and cmc we don't want going any more north. 

They came way south from 0z

[MJO812]

Euro

[donsutherland1]

6 minutes ago, North and West said:

C’mon, we just cancelled winter.


.

MJO812 uncancelled it.

[NEG NAO]

10 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

MJO812 uncancelled it.

yes and when is the last time we had 2 Winter Storm threads active at the same time ? As for this late week event only thing that I have high confidence in today is the precip shield will not miss to the south - still low confidence in precip types region wide and amounts.........

 

 

 

[donsutherland1]

15 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

yes and when is the last time we had 2 Winter Storm threads active at the same time ? As for this late week event only thing that I have high confidence in today is the precip shield will not miss to the south - still low confidence in precip types region wide and amounts.........

 

 

 

I agree concerning a miss to the south. The historical odds would favor something further north than what the recent runs of the GFS have been showing. It should also be noted that most storms during PNA- patterns have lighter amounts. 

Many options are on the table, including a weak, sheared out primary that produces very little precipitation. Let's see how things evolve. 

[BoulderWX]

Would take the 5" the euro is showing for Morristown and run...  

[MJO812]

Eps

[SnowGoose69]

26 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I agree concerning a miss to the south. The historical odds would favor something further north than what the recent runs of the GFS have been showing. It should also be noted that most storms during PNA- patterns have lighter amounts. 

Many options are on the table, including a weak, sheared out primary that produces very little precipitation. Let's see how things evolve. 

Yeah I still think less juicy and more north is likely.  I could see SN/PL/FZRA in NYC.  I am not highly confident in this range at the metro being mostly snow at all.  I don't like the -PNA and think the pattern upstream over the N Plains/MW will allow this to probably gain too much latitude before its shunted.

[brooklynwx99]

EPS continues to tick colder. mean is about 4" for NYC

i generally like this kind of event... shove moisture into HP and you usually have success

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

EPS continues to tick colder. mean is about 4" for NYC

i generally like this kind of event... shove moisture into HP and you usually have success

We had a bunch of these in 93-94, I feel we've had basically none since minus PDII

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

We had a bunch of these in 93-94, I feel we've had basically none since minus PDII

I think 2003/2004 had 2 systems well north of us redevelopment just south with a similar NW to SE snowfall distribution.

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

I agree concerning a miss to the south. The historical odds would favor something further north than what the recent runs of the GFS have been showing. It should also be noted that most storms during PNA- patterns have lighter amounts. 

Many options are on the table, including a weak, sheared out primary that produces very little precipitation. Let's see how things evolve. 

If there is in fact a snowstorm Friday-Saturday in the NYC metro with a PNA that strongly negative (full-latitude trough down to Baja), then it will be remembered as an extremely anomalous event 

[psv88]

I like this event. I will be a wintry week. 

[donsutherland1]

7 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

If there is in fact a snowstorm Friday-Saturday in the NYC metro with a PNA that strongly negative (full-latitude trough down to Baja), then it will be remembered as an extremely anomalous event 

It would certainly be unusual. The New York City area hasn't seen many 4" or greater snowstorms when the PNA has been negative. Lighter amounts are far more common. Boston is usually favored with 4" or above amounts.