Snow Potential Dec 26-27

[SnoSki14]

WWA now. Figures with models trending downward. However more ice will probably cause more issues had we just had more snows. 

[Snowlover11]

1 minute ago, wthrmn654 said:

Is that on am app or something? 

Apple weather app.

[Snowlover11]

My point and click says 5-10”

[wthrmn654]

Just now, Snowlover11 said:

My point and click says 5-10”

Mine says 3-5 while the snow totals for select towns says 4-7 lol

[EastonSN+]

Does anyone have the gefs?

[Blizzardo]

Mt. Holly just downgraded me to a winter weather advisory for 3-5 now. Instead of the 4-8 and winter storm watch.. 

[MJO812]

Winter storm warning for NYC

4-8 inches

[MJO812]

[jconsor]

3 hours ago, psv88 said:

24 hours to first flakes for some on here and the American mesos all over the place. NYC northwest, north and northeast in line for a solid snowstorm. 
 

South of nyc is on the bubble. Probably a sleet storm up to Monmouth after some snow. I think the city and points north and east stay all snow 

Aside from the 12z and 0z NAM, which look unreasonable and lack a focused WNW-ESE area of heavier precip, there is a good consensus of a peak QPF axis around 0.75-0.8" extending from roughly the PA/NJ/NY border ESE toward NYC and the western third of LI.   However in reality the peak QPF axis will likely be more narrow than shown by the HREF.

The HREF snowfall amounts are often overdone, but given that I expect ratios of 12 to 13:1 even in NYC and Nassau County, I think they are overall pretty reasonable here.

I would conservatively go with 5-8" from Orange, Rockland and Westchester counties SE into Bergen and Passaic Counties in NJ, NYC, Nassau and W. third of Suffolk.  Could see local amounts up to 10-12" where best banding sets up (likely N of NYC).

[mob1]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

If Central Park records 6" or more, I'll donate 50 dollars to the charity of your choice. 

Let's get some good karma going. 

[Krs4Lfe]

5 minutes ago, mob1 said:

If Central Park records 6" or more, I'll donate 50 dollars to the charity of your choice. 

Let's get some good karma going. 

Hell with the way they are measuring, they will end up with only 4 to 5. NWS is quite bullish with this I must say. At least the Northward trend appears to have stopped for now 

[wthrmn654]

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

That's looks so differentfrom there winter weather page. 

[mob1]

2 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Hell with the way they are measuring, they will end up with only 4 to 5. NWS is quite bullish with this I must say. At least the Northward trend appears to have stopped for now 

I'll extend the offer to LGA and JFK as well. 

Regarding the north trend, it does seem to have leveled off for now so let's see where we go from here. 

[BoulderWX]

Mt. Holly bullish still 

[weatherpruf]

so in other words, a run of the mill event of the kind that used to be quite normal around here....3-5 and more to the north. i have come to miss them, myself. i'd take one of these every week or two. 

[weatherpruf]

Just now, BoulderWX said:

Mt. Holly bullish still 

at times like this, i stop and think what the actual working pros think, even steve d....they all seem to think there will be some significant snow, albeit not the storm of the century. if these folks thought this was low confidence, they would say so. 

[wthrmn654]

7 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

Mt. Holly bullish still 

That says it was updated about 6 am so that's likely not the final#s

[Jt17]

That says it was updated about 6 am so that's likely not the final#s

Looks just like Upton at 1 pm


.

[MJO812]

Winter storm Devin 

[jm1220]

17 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

at times like this, i stop and think what the actual working pros think, even steve d....they all seem to think there will be some significant snow, albeit not the storm of the century. if these folks thought this was low confidence, they would say so. 

If it comes in heavy it’s possible those places on the NE corner of the map reach warning amounts. These storms are always a race between the warm mid level air and heavy snow piling up before the warm air wins. If it comes in shredded the warm air has an easier time advancing in most cases. In the Dec 2020 storm that’s what minimized it east of the city. I’d be expecting largely a sleetfest from Allentown to Trenton to Philly. The tougher call is NE of there. It’s possible that sleet makes it into the SW part of NYC especially if that shredded up snow shield happens. 

[wthrmn654]

16 minutes ago, Jt17 said:

Looks just like Upton at 1 pm


.

This is updated snow amounts from mount Holly. They haven't updated they're warning details yet. 

[NEG NAO]

6 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

This is updated snow amounts from mount Holly. They haven't updated they're warning details yet. 

The bust potential is above average with this storm - because forecasters are playing the snow vs. mix game especially around central NJ

[weatherpruf]

12 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

If it comes in heavy it’s possible those places on the NE corner of the map reach warning amounts. These storms are always a race between the warm mid level air and heavy snow piling up before the warm air wins. If it comes in shredded the warm air has an easier time advancing in most cases. In the Dec 2020 storm that’s what minimized it east of the city. I’d be expecting largely a sleetfest from Allentown to Trenton to Philly. The tougher call is NE of there. It’s possible that sleet makes it into the SW part of NYC especially if that shredded up snow shield happens. 

my experience is that if it gets to trenton, it's going further and will make it all the way to staten island and the city; they are not that far apart really.

[mob1]

HRRR with a significant NE shift unfortunately. Still very good for our area though, the main band just shift north from 12Z (still snowing here)

[weatherpruf]

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

The bust potential is above average with this storm - because forecasters are playing the snow vs. mix game especially around central NJ

as i noted, in march 2017 i watched a 2 foot blizzard devolve into several inches of sleet; the sleet reached far and wide and no one, even where it snowed, got the 2 feet...but that was in march.

[mob1]

2 minutes ago, mob1 said:

HRRR with a significant NE shift unfortunately. Still very good for our area though, the main band just shift north from 12Z (still snowing here)

12Z for reference 

[forkyfork]

3 minutes ago, mob1 said:

HRRR with a significant NE shift unfortunately. Still very good for our area though, the main band just shift north from 12Z (still snowing here)

but the icon kuchera map showed nyc getting 6"

[NEG NAO]

4 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

as i noted, in march 2017 i watched a 2 foot blizzard devolve into several inches of sleet; the sleet reached far and wide and no one, even where it snowed, got the 2 feet...but that was in march.

this is obviously not as extreme - but I still consider myself here in extreme northern Middlesex County under a Winter Storm Warning because Upton still has Union County under one .........

[Snowlover11]

2 minutes ago, mob1 said:

12Z for reference 

Hrrr swings more than swingers themselves.

[winterwarlock]

13 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

This is updated snow amounts from mount Holly. They haven't updated they're warning details yet. 

Wow big range