cannoliman42 Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 We are less than 36 hours from this event in NYC and the HRRR is showing over a foot of snow (with ratios) and NAM is showing nada. The 12z NAM will be very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 Just now, cannoliman42 said: We are less than 36 hours from this event in NYC and the HRRR is showing over a foot of snow (with ratios) and NAM is showing nada. The 12z NAM will be very interesting. I’m taking the HRRR + globals when the NAM is on its own like this. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 54 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said: Imagine the chaotic forecast the NWS would have if they just used Modelology, and not Meteorology. Changing their forecast every couple hrs, when a new model run comes out. It would be ridiculous, and no one would pay them any mind. to be fair, its been more than one model and more than one model nest. The issue is they ran with really high amounts early on, not sure why they started out at 5-8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 19 minutes ago, cannoliman42 said: We are less than 36 hours from this event in NYC and the HRRR is showing over a foot of snow (with ratios) and NAM is showing nada. The 12z NAM will be very interesting. The nam is an awful model and anybody who takes it over every other model is a fool. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 58 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: who is this, thats incredibly bullish to put 10 inches amounts that far south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 The Nam came south by a lot 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 1 minute ago, winterwarlock said: who is this, thats incredibly bullish to put 10 inches amounts that far south Steve D. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 Just now, EastonSN+ said: The Nam came south by a lot Yep caved 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Yep caved I'm shocked. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Yep caved you still get a lot of sleet 2 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: The Nam came south by a lot Who is shocked by that? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 2 minutes ago, forkyfork said: you still get a lot of sleet I kind of like sleet, has some serious staying power (not that it matters much this time, there's a driving rainstorm just a few days later). 3K with a solid shift south as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 NWS has increased the amounts from 5-8" last evening. To 6-10" this morning for my area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 8 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said: Steve D. oh not a fan of his Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 38 minutes ago, mob1 said: HRRR moved north from 06Z but is still amazing verbatim The HRRR tends to be too wet at this range, so precip amounts are likely somewhat overdone. The snow map is using dynamic snow:liquid ratio calculated by the HRRR. What is interesting is the 12 to 13:1 ratios from western LI and NYC to NE NJ. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 NAM has the main vortmax over upstate NY rather then into the metro like the euro and other models… i suspect that’s erroneous 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 NWS has increased the amounts from 5-8" last evening. To 6-10" this morning for my area.Meanwhile I don’t have any watches or advisories for my area. Very odd since everyone else has them. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 Wow, NAM now has -9C @ 850 during height of precipitation and low exiting southern tip of Delmarva….casual 100s of mile shift south. This being said, I would not out too much faith in this model getting any details right…trend is obvious though, back towards GFS/Euro 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 3K NAM shift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 1 minute ago, wishcast_hater said: Meanwhile I don’t have any watches or advisories for my area. Very odd since everyone else has them. . Very odd indeed but NWS Albany is always late putting up watches and warnings. There should be a watch up with start time less than 36 hours away. Dutchess county needs 7 inches in 24 hours to reach warning criteria but to post nothing is ridiculous especially with holiday travel. They can always change to WWA or warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 Wow, NAM now has -9C @ 850 during height of precipitation and low exiting southern tip of Delmarva….casual 100s of mile shift south. This being said, I would not out too much faith in this model getting any details right…trend is obvious though, back towards GFS/Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 White Christmas here. It's been a few years. Merry Christmas all ! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 3K NAM spilts the forcing and NYC does very poor 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 22 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: NAM has the main vortmax over upstate NY rather then into the metro like the euro and other models… i suspect that’s erroneous Forky is saying a lot of sleet for NYC. Is is a likely scenario? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 1 minute ago, qg_omega said: 3K NAM spilts the forcing and NYC does very poor It just caved Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: It just caved This is 12z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Forky is saying a lot of sleet for NYC. Is is a likely scenario? I doubt it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 Just now, MJO812 said: I doubt it Maybe he meant as the CURRENT NAM depicts. However it is still the northern most model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 Could be a general depiction i see hear across most models of a general 5" - 7", but someone in that NW to SE band (roughly 50 miles wide)will get near 10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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