Snow Potential Dec 26-27

[nycwinter]

when will winter storm watches be changed to winter weather advisories for the nyc metro?

[Stormlover74]

Just now, nycwinter said:

when will winter storm watches be changed to winter weather advisories for the nyc metro?

Probably 4 this afternoon they'll change to warnings and advisories

[Krs4Lfe]

16 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Probably 4 this afternoon they'll change to warnings and advisories

WOUDK probably be a safe bet to go with advisories for NYC on south for 3-6” of wet snow and sleet, and then warnings to the north and west for 6-8”. These bands usually get further north than expected anyway, just like the mix line does. I think Mount Holly will have to reduce totals for their area. I don’t see how Philly can get 5+” with all models showing a mainly sleet storm for them now 

[MJO812]

41 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

when will winter storm watches be changed to winter weather advisories for the nyc metro?

No warnings ?

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, the_other_guy said:

Who is they? We are they!

Fluffy snow is cold drier snow. If snow is flirting with changeover, its wetter, more dense

Mr G and a few others on Twitter. 

Temps are below freezing 

[Snowlover11]

6z NAM is still dogwater. On my phone at work. Otherwise I’d post the images.

[TriPol]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Mr G and a few others on Twitter. 

Temps are below freezing 

Come on. It's against forum rules to quote anything Mr. G. says. 

[RU848789]

The NWS offices in Philly and NYC kind of punted, lol, keeping all of the watches up and not reducing snowfall forecasts much in the updated map vs. yesterday afternoon's map, other than trimming back a bit near 276/195 and in EPA and on LI, although their discussion talks about reduced snowfall due to more sleet in the W/SW counties that have watches and due to more rain possible for the SNJ counties that have watches. Hard to blame them as there's still almost 36 hours before the event starts and this way they don't have to change twice.

 

[Krs4Lfe]

15 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

The NWS offices in Philly and NYC kind of punted, lol, keeping all of the watches up and not reducing snowfall forecasts much in the updated map vs. yesterday afternoon's map, other than trimming back a bit near 276/195 and in EPA and on LI, although their discussion talks about reduced snowfall due to more sleet in the W/SW counties that have watches and due to more rain possible for the SNJ counties that have watches. Hard to blame them as there's still almost 36 hours before the event starts and this way they don't have to change twice.

 

Yeah looks like a big sleeter south of NYC. A few more nudges north (not even including the storm will probably be under modeled as to the northern extent of the sleet because this is a SWFE yet) and sleet will probably be quite prevalent in NYC. I’d cut the totals from CNJ on south in half. 

[winterwarlock]

Mt holly is going to bust badly if they dont start following the modelling

[Roger Smith]

06z GFS not going for the north trend and looks reasonably similar to previous GFS runs. 

[MJO812]

34 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

06z GFS not going for the north trend and looks reasonably similar to previous GFS runs. 

Gfs looks great.  HRRR also.

[MJO812]

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[SnoSki14]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs looks great.  HRRR also.

RGEM not being amped is a big sign too. I really think it's just going to be a wall of snow that quickly drops several inches and then when rates lessen it turns to sleet/zr

[snowman19]

The 6z hi res RGEM and the 6z 3K and 12K NAM runs are showing a strong mid-level warm nose all the way up into Rockland, Orange, Sussex, Passaic and Bergen, Westchester. The Ptype goes to a sleet fest. This should be taken seriously due to the fact this is a WAA event

 

[MJO812]

Euro looks better than the 0z run

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Yeah looks like a big sleeter south of NYC. A few more nudges north (not even including the storm will probably be under modeled as to the northern extent of the sleet because this is a SWFE yet) and sleet will probably be quite prevalent in NYC. I’d cut the totals from CNJ on south in half. 

Warm noses are always underestimated at this range. The fact that the mesos (hi res RGEM/NAM) are showing a strong mid-level warm nose all the way north of NYC is a red flag. They turn it into a sleet fest. Ignore at your own risk. Globals (GFS, ICON, CMC, UKMET, EURO) are not going to pick on it as good as the mesos. Today is the day to take them seriously. Larry Cosgrove said many years ago ‘do not ignore the meso models showing mid-level warm noses in a WAA event they are usually right’