anthonymm Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 2 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said: Absolutely. Sleet always makes its way further north than expected. There are a few exceptions but with another north trend, NYC’s totals will be cut back quite a bit I’d think my current thinking is 1-3" of snow for the city proper, followed by several hours of sleet, mainly sleet south of the city, and perhaps someone in upstate and or connecticut/mass gets 6". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 4 minutes ago, anthonymm said: not doubtful. writings on the wall with this one. congrats albany and western new england. 3 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said: Absolutely. Sleet always makes its way further north than expected. There are a few exceptions but with another north trend, NYC’s totals will be cut back quite a bit I’d think Okay bye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 8 minutes ago, anthonymm said: not doubtful. writings on the wall with this one. congrats albany and western new england. Then stop posting. You are insufferable. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago On 12/22/2025 at 11:10 PM, cleetussnow said: Gfs is what you want to see 5 days out. We want this thing to have wiggle room to come north. Bump for wiggle room - pray we have enough room left! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonymm Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Then stop posting. You are insufferable. Sorry but you and I both know that once the words "sleet" and "warm nose" start getting thrown around, our metro area always underperforms significantly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 1 minute ago, anthonymm said: Sorry but you and I both know that once the words "sleet" and "warm nose" start getting thrown around, our metro area always underperforms significantly. No. It does not. I've seen South Jersey have sleet while our area gets snow. That being said, this is going to be a wet snow which cuts back on ratio. A lot of people are saying we could get 4-6 inches. I think that's reasonable. 4-6 inches of wet, sloppy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago I'm in Western CT. Usually I hang out in the New England forum, but unless Boston or SE Mass is getting snow, 95% of them couldn't care less, and they stop posting. Hope you don't mind I jumped in here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted 3 hours ago Author Share Posted 3 hours ago 22 minutes ago, anthonymm said: yup. feb 8 2025. among many others. swfes arent good for our metro area, they're better for new england. underestimate the warm tongue at your own peril but this isn't a SWFE storm it's a NWFE (North west flow event) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 5 minutes ago, TriPol said: No. It does not. I've seen South Jersey have sleet while our area gets snow. That being said, this is going to be a wet snow which cuts back on ratio. A lot of people are saying we could get 4-6 inches. I think that's reasonable. 4-6 inches of wet, sloppy snow. They are saying fluffy snow, not wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Just now, WeatherGeek2025 said: but this isn't a SWFE storm it's a NWFE (North west flow event) Yep its not a strong storm either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 1 minute ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: but this isn't a SWFE storm it's a NWFE (North west flow event) Its sort of a SWFE behaving event, I guess its an overrunning storm, but yeah very few historical matches to this 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Yep its not a strong storm either. Merry Christmas Anthony...and congratulations! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted 2 hours ago Author Share Posted 2 hours ago 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Yep it's not a strong storm either. it's dynamic... not strong but dynamic as the elevation drop seems to help the precipitation dynamics if you will. Normally you would see this shred from the poconos but i do want to say this i have yet to see a storm like this behave the way this one is modeled. Also maybe climate change will climatically change our storm tracks and its dynamics! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 20 minutes ago, anthonymm said: my current thinking is 1-3" of snow for the city proper, followed by several hours of sleet, mainly sleet south of the city, and perhaps someone in upstate and or connecticut/mass gets 6". Read more, Post less. as of now NYC is excepting 4-8” not one forecast has NYC getting 1-3” 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott Koziara Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Its sort of a SWFE behaving event, I guess its an overrunning storm, but yeah very few historical matches to this A late March 1996 storm comes to mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 15 minutes ago, Patrick-02540 said: I'm in Western CT. Usually I hang out in the New England forum, but unless Boston or SE Mass is getting snow, 95% of them couldn't care less, and they stop posting. Hope you don't mind I jumped in here. We trade prisoners from time to time. Welcome. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 18 minutes ago, anthonymm said: Sorry but you and I both know that once the words "sleet" and "warm nose" start getting thrown around, our metro area always underperforms significantly. The Feb 2025 SWFE brought a widespread 4-6" because the snow came in like a wall and held off the warm air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 18 minutes ago, Patrick-02540 said: I'm in Western CT. Usually I hang out in the New England forum, but unless Boston or SE Mass is getting snow, 95% of them couldn't care less, and they stop posting. Hope you don't mind I jumped in here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 10 minutes ago, Scott Koziara said: A late March 1996 storm comes to mind. Welcome to the forum 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Euro AI . Bump up from 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Euro is 3-6 inches 4-8 with Kuchera 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 7 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Euro is 3-6 inches 4-8 with Kuchera yikes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Just now, Snowlover11 said: yikes Scattered amounts Nothing wrong with these amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey_Snowhole Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Everyone is on a cliff until it bumps south tomorrow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 53 minutes ago, MJO812 said: They are saying fluffy snow, not wet snow. Who is they? We are they! Fluffy snow is cold drier snow. If snow is flirting with changeover, its wetter, more dense 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
negative-nao Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Can someone post the link the Kuchera maps. My pc died and i am using a loaner laptop with no bookmarks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Fluffy snow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 18 minutes ago, Jersey_Snowhole said: Everyone is on a cliff until it bumps south tomorrow Bump south??? I want it to keep bumping north. But just a little north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 14 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: Who is they? We are they! Fluffy snow is cold drier snow. If snow is flirting with changeover, its wetter, more dense They are saying starts fluffy but gets wetter near end. The snow may initially begin with a higher ratio (drier snow) and then trend to a lower ratio (wetter) as the storm moves across the area. This will be fine tuned over the next day or so as high range guidance comes into range and the event draws closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 12 minutes ago, Patrick-02540 said: Bump south??? I want it to keep bumping north. But just a little north. OK go back 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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