MJO812 Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 5 minutes ago, TriPol said: No. It does not. I've seen South Jersey have sleet while our area gets snow. That being said, this is going to be a wet snow which cuts back on ratio. A lot of people are saying we could get 4-6 inches. I think that's reasonable. 4-6 inches of wet, sloppy snow. They are saying fluffy snow, not wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 Just now, WeatherGeek2025 said: but this isn't a SWFE storm it's a NWFE (North west flow event) Yep its not a strong storm either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 1 minute ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: but this isn't a SWFE storm it's a NWFE (North west flow event) Its sort of a SWFE behaving event, I guess its an overrunning storm, but yeah very few historical matches to this 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Yep its not a strong storm either. Merry Christmas Anthony...and congratulations! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted December 25, 2025 Author Share Posted December 25, 2025 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Yep it's not a strong storm either. it's dynamic... not strong but dynamic as the elevation drop seems to help the precipitation dynamics if you will. Normally you would see this shred from the poconos but i do want to say this i have yet to see a storm like this behave the way this one is modeled. Also maybe climate change will climatically change our storm tracks and its dynamics! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 20 minutes ago, anthonymm said: my current thinking is 1-3" of snow for the city proper, followed by several hours of sleet, mainly sleet south of the city, and perhaps someone in upstate and or connecticut/mass gets 6". Read more, Post less. as of now NYC is excepting 4-8” not one forecast has NYC getting 1-3” 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott Koziara Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Its sort of a SWFE behaving event, I guess its an overrunning storm, but yeah very few historical matches to this A late March 1996 storm comes to mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 15 minutes ago, Patrick-02540 said: I'm in Western CT. Usually I hang out in the New England forum, but unless Boston or SE Mass is getting snow, 95% of them couldn't care less, and they stop posting. Hope you don't mind I jumped in here. We trade prisoners from time to time. Welcome. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 18 minutes ago, anthonymm said: Sorry but you and I both know that once the words "sleet" and "warm nose" start getting thrown around, our metro area always underperforms significantly. The Feb 2025 SWFE brought a widespread 4-6" because the snow came in like a wall and held off the warm air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 18 minutes ago, Patrick-02540 said: I'm in Western CT. Usually I hang out in the New England forum, but unless Boston or SE Mass is getting snow, 95% of them couldn't care less, and they stop posting. Hope you don't mind I jumped in here. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 10 minutes ago, Scott Koziara said: A late March 1996 storm comes to mind. Welcome to the forum 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 Euro AI . Bump up from 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 Euro is 3-6 inches 4-8 with Kuchera 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 7 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Euro is 3-6 inches 4-8 with Kuchera yikes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 Just now, Snowlover11 said: yikes Scattered amounts Nothing wrong with these amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey_Snowhole Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 Everyone is on a cliff until it bumps south tomorrow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 53 minutes ago, MJO812 said: They are saying fluffy snow, not wet snow. Who is they? We are they! Fluffy snow is cold drier snow. If snow is flirting with changeover, its wetter, more dense 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
negative-nao Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 Can someone post the link the Kuchera maps. My pc died and i am using a loaner laptop with no bookmarks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 Fluffy snow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 18 minutes ago, Jersey_Snowhole said: Everyone is on a cliff until it bumps south tomorrow Bump south??? I want it to keep bumping north. But just a little north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 14 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: Who is they? We are they! Fluffy snow is cold drier snow. If snow is flirting with changeover, its wetter, more dense They are saying starts fluffy but gets wetter near end. The snow may initially begin with a higher ratio (drier snow) and then trend to a lower ratio (wetter) as the storm moves across the area. This will be fine tuned over the next day or so as high range guidance comes into range and the event draws closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 12 minutes ago, Patrick-02540 said: Bump south??? I want it to keep bumping north. But just a little north. OK go back 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 when will winter storm watches be changed to winter weather advisories for the nyc metro? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 Just now, nycwinter said: when will winter storm watches be changed to winter weather advisories for the nyc metro? Probably 4 this afternoon they'll change to warnings and advisories Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Krs4Lfe Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 16 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Probably 4 this afternoon they'll change to warnings and advisories WOUDK probably be a safe bet to go with advisories for NYC on south for 3-6” of wet snow and sleet, and then warnings to the north and west for 6-8”. These bands usually get further north than expected anyway, just like the mix line does. I think Mount Holly will have to reduce totals for their area. I don’t see how Philly can get 5+” with all models showing a mainly sleet storm for them now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 41 minutes ago, nycwinter said: when will winter storm watches be changed to winter weather advisories for the nyc metro? No warnings ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 1 hour ago, the_other_guy said: Who is they? We are they! Fluffy snow is cold drier snow. If snow is flirting with changeover, its wetter, more dense Mr G and a few others on Twitter. Temps are below freezing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 6z NAM is still dogwater. On my phone at work. Otherwise I’d post the images. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Mr G and a few others on Twitter. Temps are below freezing Come on. It's against forum rules to quote anything Mr. G. says. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted December 25, 2025 Share Posted December 25, 2025 Door #3 - The NWS offices in Philly and NYC punted, lol, keeping all of the watches up and not really reducing snowfall forecasts much in the updated map vs. yesterday afternoon's map, other than trimming back a bit near 276/195, but they also bumped snowfall up a bit in EPA and on LI, although their discussion talks about reduced snowfall due to more sleet in the W/SW counties that have watches and due to more rain possible for the SNJ counties that have watches. Hard to blame them for simply keeping the watches, as there's still almost 36 hours before the event starts and this way they don't have to change twice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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