White Christmas Miracle? December 23-24th

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I still like my one-and-done map from the weekend.

 

Looks very reasonable. 

I have yet to look in depth yet (haven't even checked out bufkit) but one killer here is ratios aren't going to be great (except far interior) and lift overall probably not terribly great across the region as a whole...but all of this is rather insignificant anyways given we aren't dealing with a high ceiling anyways.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Other than far S coast no one is turning to rain though. It’s trended colder 

I’d agree with that. It’s trended weaker, which should limit warm push. I think if you’re more than 10 miles from the water, you should probably be fine

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Looks very reasonable. 

I have yet to look in depth yet (haven't even checked out bufkit) but one killer here is ratios aren't going to be great (except far interior) and lift overall probably not terribly great across the region as a whole...but all of this is rather insignificant anyways given we aren't dealing with a high ceiling anyways.

Yea, it's a clipper.....it's like going to a hot-dog eating contest and making note of the fact that people weren't fasting.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I’d agree with that. It’s trended weaker, which should limit warm push. I think if you’re more than 10 miles from the water, you should probably be fine

I haven't looked since I made it....amounts will probably be similar, anyway.

[Kitz Craver]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I still like my one-and-done map from the weekend.

 

I’m almost certain I’ll get some accumulation out of this, unless guidance tanks today

[rimetree]

Models show some energy moving through on Christmas to keep it festive during the day.

[UnitedWx]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

Cancel school for tomorrow, and it’s a win for me. Xmas break can start a day early. Thank you Santa. 

I'm hoping for a cancel so I can get in some overdue maintenance without distractions

[Sey-Mour Snow]

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

BDL right in the tip.

[Kitz Craver]

2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Is that dong meant to go right up my arse, cause that’s what it feels like

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

I’m almost certain I’ll get some accumulation out of this, unless guidance tanks today

Everyone should get some.

[dendrite]

There’s been a subtle shift of trending the inv trough from SW ME more northward to the midcoast. Although I see the FV3 just came in with warning criteria here.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

12z HRRR is pretty much shredded garbage for everyone. SW CT looks okay 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

RGEM isn’t too bad. HRDPS at 12x still looks good. Widespread 2-4

[weatherwiz]

That's a pretty good hit from SW ME into S NH on the GFS...easily warning criteria there

[Sey-Mour Snow]

GFS is beefy for everyone again 

[Ginx snewx]

5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

That's a pretty good hit from SW ME into S NH on the GFS...easily warning criteria there

Really cranked up 

[SouthCoastMA]

The 12z GFS Doug Fluties EMA on Christmas eve Day with the invt trough

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Emass Christmas Eve special on gfs 3-6” widespread Tuesday PM and Wednesday 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

I’d take the 12z gfs, probably 2-3” here.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Really cranked up 

Yup...becoming pretty clear they may cash in pretty well from this. Also encouraging seeing the GFS remaining more juiced for all, but seeing the mesos, I wonder if there is some resolution influence going on and the GFS isn't  going to fully depict a similar look like some of the mesos are showing. 

Regardless, definitely feeling most should pick up 1-2" (coast may be burned though with marginal BL temps). Will be some surprises (Berk/NW Hills) that get 3-4". 

[moneypitmike]

Nice GFS--especially PWM land.  I'm a little east of the jack--hoping for a minor correction.

[NorEastermass128]

Cape Ann’s revenge type winter?  My mom is hosting Xmas Eve…first since we lost my dad…so I’m hoping for at least the grass to be covered up in Rockport. 

[tamarack]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

That's a pretty good hit from SW ME into S NH on the GFS...easily warning criteria there

GYX has a watch for the counties just to our south, advisory level here, about 3-5 with high ratio.  Family in SNJ is planning to head up tomorrow and can't start before noon, so may be driving their 15-passenger van in snow from Hartford north.  Last time they were here for Christmas was 2 years ago, and they didn't see a flake, not even a dirty snow pile (4"+ RA at 50-55° wiped everything), until the day they headed south.  Assuming they don't have any "adventures" tomorrow, they'll see fresh white this year.

[DavisStraight]

33 minutes ago, dendrite said:

There’s been a subtle shift of trending the inv trough from SW ME more northward to the midcoast. Although I see the FV3 just came in with warning criteria here.

Looks north of me, got lucky last time.

[SouthCoastMA]

This trough is going to flop around on the models like Lebron until Tuesday

[moneypitmike]

A couple hours old....but GYX had updated their map since the ones posted earlier.

[40/70 Benchmark]

41 minutes ago, dendrite said:

There’s been a subtle shift of trending the inv trough from SW ME more northward to the midcoast. Although I see the FV3 just came in with warning criteria here.

Of course, while the follow up event shifts south.

[dendrite]

GFSGW

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

GFSGW

Unless the euro looks similar…can’t truss it