Light Snowfall (1" - 4") on Tuesday Dec 23 For NYC Region (Discussion & Observations)

[snywx]

850am

30° moderate snow falling

4.8" otg

( Big time fail ) 

[IrishRob17]

5 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Same here in Highland Mills, at least one inch per hour rates right now. Hope it lasts, over 2 inches now.

Despite temps close to freezing at the ground there must be some good snow growth temps up above. 

[snywx]

5 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Same here in Highland Mills, at least one inch per hour rates right now. Hope it lasts, over 2 inches now.

Warning criteria will almost certainty be met on this side of the county 

[IrishRob17]

1 minute ago, snywx said:

850am

30° moderate snow falling

4.8" otg

( Big time fail ) 

I knew you were in this band at your home, the same one that has been running through Goshen. Nice. 

[Brian5671]

White rain here-a slight coating on the grass but this one's a dud locally

[BxEngine]

Dare i say borderline heavy the last 10 mins or so….Still above 1/4 mile vis but not by much. About to hit 2”. 

[WeatherGeek2025]

heavy white rain in midtown 34 degrees

 

edit i was wrong about the city getting any accumulations it's just not cold enough!

[binbisso]

6 minutes ago, dWave said:

In New Rochelle, rain switch to heavy snow. For now, no accumulation grassy surfaces or pavement.

Heavy snow here in mt vernon everything covered close to an inch on the holder surfaces 

[Stormlover74]

Wow heavy snow now

[donsutherland1]

From Rye, NY:

 

[eduggs]

47 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Considering NWS was expecting 1 inch of accumulation, this will be impossible as temps are warming up already. Quite the fail by most models that expected any form of accumulation in NYC. I think they don’t truly factor in the urban heat island to the fullest extent. Always have to tack on a few extra degrees which naturally cuts down totals. Marginal events like these probably would have produced a few inches a few decades ago but now it’s too warm. We need the big ones for serious accumulation 

This is nonsense. Models don't forecast snow. Their output is liquid precipitation. 3rd party vendors convert that to snowfall using, for example, a 10:1 ratio. So if a model correctly predicts falling snow but it doesn't accumulate due to intensity or temperature, that's not a model fail. That's a user fail for not understanding 3rd party vendor maps and not looking at model forecast soundings.

A lot of people in Orange, Rockland, and Westchester Counties were not expecting heavy accumulating snow this morning due to downplaying of the event by the NWS and local media (and certain posters on this board). That's a fail on their part since models have advertised the localized banding with this very well. The WPC snowfall probability maps are trash. Use them with extreme caution.

[weathermedic]

4 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

heavy white rain in midtown 34 degrees

 

edit i was wrong about the city getting any accumulations it's just not cold enough!

But about 1/2 inch of salt on the roads!

[eduggs]

Subsidence in eastern Orange and Putnam Counties from the heavy band to the south and some downsloping off the escarpment. Meso models also showed this effect.

[the_other_guy]

Just now, eduggs said:

This is nonsense. Models don't forecast snow. Their output is liquid precipitation. 3rd party vendors convert that to snowfall using, for example, a 10:1 ratio. So if a model correctly predicts falling snow but it doesn't accumulate due to intensity or temperature, that's not a model fail. That's a user fail for not understanding 3rd party vendor maps and not looking and model forecast soundings.

A lot of people in Orange, Rockland, and Westchester Counties were not expecting heavy accumulating snow this morning due to downplaying of the event by the NWS and local media (and certain posters on this board). That's a fail on their part since models have advertised the localized banding with this very well. The WPC snowfall probability maps are trash. Use them with extreme caution.

This is where experience and gut comes in.

Youre not gonna get accumulations in the day, concrete jungle with temps in the mid/upper 30s from a warm front.

 

People push narratives on here, but the weather always shakes out factually

[eduggs]

On 12/21/2025 at 8:42 PM, donsutherland1 said:

No changes in thinking at this time. With marginal temperatures and light precipitation rates, most of the New York City area will probably see little more than a coating. The City will likely see temperatures remain above freezing for most or all of the storm. A trace of snow cannot be ruled out for parts of the City. Nearly three-quarters of events with temperatures above freezing saw no measurable snowfall while just one-in-six had 1" or more in Central Park's climate record. It is possible that the precipitation could mix with or end as some light rain or drizzle in and around New York City.

The distant northern and western suburbs continue to have the best chance of seeing 1"-2", as readings will likely be near or perhaps even a little below freezing during much of the event. 

The latest WPC maps for 24-hour probabilities of 1" or more and 2" or more snowfall are below:

Two nights ago WPC snow probs for 2" accumulation had Nyack at 2% chance and Middletown at 20%. I said at the time they were low. I have no idea what they were looking at/using. Those are not mountainous regions. This was not a last minute shift or some kind of big surprise.

[snywx]

Just now, eduggs said:

Two nights ago WPC snow probs had Nyack at 2% chance and Middletown at 20%. I said at the time they were low. I have no idea what they were looking at/using. This was not a last minute shift or some kind of big surprise.

No advisory here for the last event when most received 3-5". This county sits in between 4 different NWS offices. I usually peak at all to get an idea of their thinking

[eduggs]

Looking at radar, could be some 6-8" totals in NEPA and maybe stretching into  extreme NNJ and W Orange County. Parts of Rockland and Westchester could get 3-4" if banding holds together. Pretty well advertised actually. NAM was too dry.

[binbisso]

7 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

This is where experience and gut comes in.

Youre not gonna get accumulations in the day, concrete jungle with temps in the mid/upper 30s from a warm front.

 

People push narratives on here, but the weather always shakes out factually

Nonsense I'm in mt vernon I border the bronx heavy snow now sticking in the daylight on all surfaces about an inch on the colder surfaces 

[BxEngine]

4 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Two nights ago WPC snow probs had Nyack at 2% chance and Middletown at 20%. I said at the time they were low. I have no idea what they were looking at/using. Those are not mountainous regions. This was not a last minute shift or some kind of big surprise.

Yeah thats pretty rough by them unfortunately. If we can stay in light to moderate until 11 or so like some of the mesos show even in rockland we’re gonna be above 3”. Its borderline right now depending on where the subsidence stays. 

[the_other_guy]

1 minute ago, binbisso said:

Nonsense I'm in mt vernon I border the bronx heavy snow now sticking in the daylight on all surfaces about an inch on the colder surfaces 

Drive a mile south and youll see it isnt nonsense at all

[ForestHillWx]

Grabbed an 1” out of that band; rates are lighter now. 

[Brasiluvsnow]

pleasantly surprised as its 32 in New City and I would guesstimate that we have 2 inches give or take,,,,my son is visiting with his dog who rarely sees snow and she and I are in the back yard loving this !!!! And to you naysayers and haters who said this wouldn't be possible, well I got 3 words for ya " Let It Snow " 

[BxEngine]

[eduggs]

It can snow and stick even in NYC in this airmass. NYC is a big place. It helps to be away from the immediate shoreline, outside of the heavily paved areas, and preferably a little north or west of Manhattan. If intensity is moderate or heavy, it can accumulate anywhere at 33.5F. 

If you are in a less favorable location within NYC and intensity is not particularly heavy and the temperature is 35F, then it is difficult to accumulate. But there are no hard and fast rules about predicting this. This kind of event happened many times in the past, including in the distant past.

[binbisso]

4 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Drive a mile south and youll see it isnt nonsense at all

What are you talking about mt vernon is a concrete jungle. I border the bronx. What you're saying is nonsense 

[snywx]

8 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Looking at radar, could be some 6-8" totals in NEPA and maybe stretching into  extreme NNJ and W Orange County. Parts of Rockland and Westchester could get 3-4" if banding holds together. Pretty well advertised actually. NAM was too dry.

5" here at the stake 

Snow has lightened up

Temp is 30°

[eduggs]

1 minute ago, snywx said:

5" here at the stake 

Snow has lightened up

Temp is 30°

That is so awesome, enjoy it! I'm in Putnam County right now and we have less than an inch and main roads are wet. I'm still loving it.

[lee59]

I started as white rain and then light rain and now back to white rain 

[RU848789]

Up to 3/4" as of 9:00 am, so might get to my 1" prediction, although with it being 33F and slowly rising, I don't think we'll get accumulating snow for more than another hour.  Snowing pretty good right now though...

[snywx]

2 minutes ago, eduggs said:

That is so awesome, enjoy it! I'm in Putnam County right now and we have less than an inch and main roads are wet. I'm still loving it.

There was def a hint at banding potential in this area but I didn't expect this. We had 1-2"/hr rates since 7am