Moderate snowfall 12/14/2025 WWA up for most of the area

[donsutherland1]

The 12/13 12z HREF is quite aggressive with the snowfall:

If the areas are knocked down a level e.g., 4"-6" down to 2"-4", one still has good confidence in the idea of a widespread 2"-4" snowfall with higher amounts on parts of Long Island, NJ, and Philadelphia (generally 3"-6").

The latest probabilistic assessment of 2" or more snowfall.

[MJO812]

Euro wetter for nyc and LI

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

The 12/13 12z HREF is quite aggressive with the snowfall:

If the areas are knocked down a level e.g., 4"-6" down to 2"-4", one still has good confidence in the idea of a widespread 2"-4" snowfall with higher amounts on parts of Long Island, NJ, and Philadelphia (generally 3"-6").

The latest probabilistic assessment of 2" or more snowfall.

Good sign. We might go to town for a few hours if we can get some good moisture transport north and banding. Thank goodness this isn't another system with lame cold air and we have fresh arctic air plunging in when the winds turn north. 

[hooralph]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Euro wetter for nyc and LI

[winterwx21]

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro wetter for nyc and LI

Yeah Euro looks like 3 to 4 for a lot of the area.

This looks like a 2 to 4 inch snowfall with some areas getting as much as 5. Nice to get this type of event in the first half of December. Hopefully a good sign for the winter. 

[anthonymm]

9 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The 12/13 12z HREF is quite aggressive with the snowfall:

If the areas are knocked down a level e.g., 4"-6" down to 2"-4", one still has good confidence in the idea of a widespread 2"-4" snowfall with higher amounts on parts of Long Island, NJ, and Philadelphia (generally 3"-6").

The latest probabilistic assessment of 2" or more snowfall.

Looks like this winter will be significantly different from the last few. As we all know 3-4”+ in a nina december stacks the odds heavily to a 30”+ winter for our area.

[SnoSki14]

7 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

Looks like this winter will be significantly different from the last few. As we all know 3-4”+ in a nina december stacks the odds heavily to a 30”+ winter for our area.

It'll be interesting to see if that applies again but generally that has seemed to work out well. The higher end 4-5" totals will need to verify though 

[David-LI]

any1 got 12z euro snow totals map?

[psv88]

Just now, David-LI said:

any1 got 12z euro snow totals map?

Long Island still shows 3-5”

[Krs4Lfe]

This storm reminds me a bit of the early January 2022 snow event. That one was more wide-reaching of course, but 3-5" of snow expected, but NYC ended up with 5-8", a fluffy snow because the temperature was around 31 for most of the event, and it was a complete nighttime event. Not expecting anywhere near 5-8" with this one, and we're also starting out a bit warmer with temps in upper 30s, so I'd expect some white rain in the beginning. 

[SnoSki14]

HRRR looking quite aggressive. Supports what HREF is putting out. 

[sussexcountyobs]

After a low of 14.5 last night. Temps have been steadily rising from before sunrise. I was starting to worry, not so much for here, but for city folk and coasties. Made it up to 31.6 about an hour ago, but now it is slowly dropping. Hopefully these falling temps make it down to the coastal plain. A couple of hours of mixed precip or rain would cut down on totals.

[Stormlover74]

Up to 41 here. Probably start as a brief mix

[EastonSN+]

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

After a low of 14.5 last night. Temps have been steadily rising from before sunrise. I was starting to worry, not so much for here, but for city folk and coasties. Made it up to 31.6 about an hour ago, but now it is slowly dropping. Hopefully these falling temps make it down to the coastal plain. A couple of hours of mixed precip or rain would cut down on totals.

We might lose a small amount at the very beginning especially on the barrier islands, but the northerly winds are bringing in fresh cold air this time and it should be very brief that it’s not accumulating or a mix. Goes to show though what still happens here when winds are onshore in December. 

[EasternLI]

Yeah, HRRR gone wild. And still going lol.

[binbisso]

How about this map

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

2 minutes ago, binbisso said:

How about this map

Misleading. 10% probability maps less than 12 hours before an event begins rarely ever workout. I would love to be wrong though. 

[wthrmn654]

2 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Misleading. 10% probability maps less than 12 hours before an event begins rarely ever workout. I would love to be wrong though. 

I would say cut those 10%maps totals in half, and there's a far greater chance of seeing those #s 

[binbisso]

9 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Misleading. 10% probability maps less than 12 hours before an event begins rarely ever workout. I would love to be wrong though. 

I know. However the .5le line is touching the southern boroughs. Move that 10 to 20 miles north with  15-1 ratios and it's not to far fetched 

[psv88]

Wow upton is bullish for Suffolk now with its own WWA for 4-6” and up to 7” of snow. 
 

Nassau up to 3-5”

[binbisso]

18z hrrr without ratios

[MJO812]

I think 3-6 is a good bet for NYC and LI

[kat5hurricane]

Really liking the trends for us in the immediate metro and when Forky is giving the go ahead that perks my ears up even more. 3-5 seems like a good call with some local higher amounts probably out east.

It's funny how perspective changes, from 2000-2018 a storm like this would barely be a blip on the radar but nowadays this is pretty exciting, brings me back to my youth in the 90s when any moderate storm was a big deal.

[ForestHillWx]

Every model has some weird sucker-whole running thru MMU; I’m keeping expectations low for my area. 

[anthonymm]

55 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Misleading. 10% probability maps less than 12 hours before an event begins rarely ever workout. I would love to be wrong though. 

Well it's not misleading if they work out about 1 in 10 times. Which I think they do.

[sussexcountyobs]

NWS finally put up an advisory for Sussex county at 2:14pm

[BoulderWX]

1 minute ago, ForestHillWx said:

Every model has some weird sucker-whole running thru MMU; I’m keeping expectations low for my area. 

I'm with you neighbor; I'm going with 2" for me in Morristown, enough to make things festive hopefully

 

[wthrmn654]

Temps up to 40 and 42 in places, but forecast was about 40, hopefully they don't keep creeping up. 

[WeatherGeek2025]

3-5 inches seems like a good call for Central Perk