Moderate snowfall 12/14/2025 WWA up for most of the area

[brooklynwx99]

this looks like more than a minor snowfall for most of the metro, honestly. solid WAA with warning criteria likely even being approached in CNJ and parts of LI

[Tatamy]

57 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

That seems unlikely unless we start off above freezing mark. Some of the more amped model show freezing line running right through NYC and Long Island during the event, so I guess this will be like a pasty snow, not fluffy 

Stations right along the south shore of LI have just seen a jump in temperatures to the mid 30s along with a wind shift to the south.  Not sure how this plays into some of the forecasts calling for precipitation starting as rain in immediate coastal areas.

[wthrmn654]

I would rather models show bigger amounts, then lower only because if something didn't pan out perfectly we know what happens and atleast we would still see plowable snows... 

 

I will say sucks I have my fire dept Christmas party tonight and work at 7 am tomorrow,  guess I can't get to drink tonight

[wthrmn654]

Temps drop pretty fast and the best snows should be when everyone's snowing.  It will be an icy first layer followed by fluffy

[RU848789]

6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this looks like more than a minor snowfall for most of the metro, honestly. solid WAA with warning criteria likely even being approached in CNJ and parts of LI

Completely agree and liking the latest NBM, especially for NYC/NENJ/LI - first time we've seen amounts over 4" for NYC and nearby locations from the NBM.

[BoulderWX]

1 minute ago, RU848789 said:

Completely agree and liking the latest NBM, especially for NYC/NENJ/LI - first time we've seen amounts over 4" for NYC and nearby locations from the NBM.

I'm riding the northern edge in Morristown so could see 1 or 4 inches just as easily depending how far north this goes; hoping for at least 2" to cover everything up - im not greedy

[Stormlover74]

Rgem mostly held serve but beefed up a bit for southern areas. Ocean County 6+

[Tatamy]

50 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

It’s a narrow band of frontogenesis. Sinking/subsidence just to the north. Another way to put it is the stronger the band, the worse the subsidence in areas just north of it.
 

Have and have nots right across the sound.

Not an exact forecast here but from a conceptual standpoint it’s a case where commack LI could see 6” and north haven CT, 1.5”.

The modeling likely underdone on the gradient (delta).

I saw one of these gradient type events two years ago with the I78 death band.  Four miles separated 6” amounts from 10” amounts.  You cannot underestimate these gradient events.

[Rmine1]

What’s different about this storm than what we have seen in the recent past, is that the preceding air masses have been cold. The ground is ample cold, so snow should accumulate very quickly.

[ILoveWinter]

3 minutes ago, Rmine1 said:

What’s different about this storm than what we have seen in the recent past, is that the preceding air masses have been cold. The ground is ample cold, so snow should accumulate very quickly.

Yes true in all areas except near the Belvedere Castle/CPK weather station 

[jm1220]

I definitely see the chance for a northern weenie band somewhere, hopefully it doesn't park over the sound. That's where the mid level lift and fronto would be best and could sneak a 5-6" total. North of that unfortunately might be skunked somewhat with subsidence but we have to see how it evolves. Also liking how the snow seems to linger longer which might be based on the trough bending a little more and bringing more moisture north, so it might be more like a 12 hour event from maybe 3z to 15z around or east of the city. The sound might help enhance the snow as well over LI since we have a northerly flow with the storm-the northerly winds enhance lift through frictional convergence-the wind "piles up" over LI and forces air to rise. Should be a nice little event. Not huge by any means but on the upper end of what this kind of fast pattern allows. I could see a 6" total or two where the banding sits overhead and if the snow lingers for 12 hours or more.

[MJO812]

HRRR has the heavy band over NYC.

[NEG NAO]

[jm1220]

GFS looks great. Finally woke up.

[forkyfork]

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

HRRR has the heavy band over NYC.

i agree with it

[North and West]

GFS looks great. Finally woke up.

So it’s a bad model then, right? You (the model) can’t be telling me ABC for days and then suddenly the day of, tell me you bought me a whole bouquet of Oopsie Daisies.


.

[jm1220]

Just now, North and West said:

So it’s a bad model then, right? You (the model) can’t be telling me ABC for days and then suddenly the day of, tell me you bought me a whole bouquet of Oopsie Daisies.


.

Yep, it sucks. Glad though when it finally wakes up. 

[TJW014]

2 minutes ago, North and West said:

So it’s a bad model then, right? You (the model) can’t be telling me ABC for days and then suddenly the day of, tell me you bought me a whole bouquet of Oopsie Daisies.


.

According to this sub, it has sucked since the moment I joined this AmWx

[psv88]

1 hour ago, jbenedet said:

It’s a narrow band of frontogenesis. Sinking/subsidence just to the north. Another way to put it is the stronger the band, the worse the subsidence in areas just north of it.
 

Have and have nots right across the sound.

Not an exact forecast here but from a conceptual standpoint it’s a case where commack LI could see 6” and north haven CT, 1.5”.

The modeling likely underdone on the gradient (delta).

Glad you picked Commack!

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

GFS looks great. Finally woke up.

Gfs shifted the heavier precip towards the southside of NYC area

[WeatherGeek2025]

this is looking like a nice snow event, very excited for this!

[wthrmn654]

Lol at the name changing game for this topic.  Snow storm title isn't being allowed haha

[BoulderWX]

RAP (i know) on the northern end of the guidance; all in all things like good for a region wide 2-4" (up to 6 locally). good luck all

[psv88]

39 now. 

[weathermedic]

37 on a southerly wind here 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

40 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

RAP (i know) on the northern end of the guidance; all in all things like good for a region wide 2-4" (up to 6 locally). good luck all

Let's save the snowstorm banners for real snow storms. I know it's been a while for those of you on the UHI and coastal plain but let's act like we've been there before.

Moderate snowfall is certainly an adequate description for what looks to be an area wide 2-5 inch event. 

[Brasiluvsnow]

IF this possible moderate " snow event " pans out and is the real deal that makes most people in this forum ( besides Snowy ) Happy then no offense to Anthony or anyone else but I suggest that WeatherGeek2025 ,,,, be the person to start the next storm discussion as well and IF he does good again , heck he can do it for the rest of the winter !!!!

•  

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, jbenedet said:

It’s a narrow band of frontogenesis. Sinking/subsidence just to the north. Another way to put it is the stronger the band, the worse the subsidence in areas just north of it.
 

Have and have nots right across the sound.

Not an exact forecast here but from a conceptual standpoint it’s a case where commack LI could see 6” and north haven CT, 1.5”.

The modeling likely underdone on the gradient (delta).

It’s too bad they discontinued the banding product from FSU.  These charts were nice to have in the past. But the exact spot of the banding and subsidence is almost always a nowcasters special. 
 

Robert Hart, Florida State University

https://moe.met.fsu.edu › banding

 

 

 

 

Experimental NAM and GFS Banding Diagnostics. Note: The NAM output is ... Archive of recent images. Bob Hart, FSU David Novak, WPC Walt Drag, NWS PHI

[the_other_guy]

im curious how colder temps up north vs lighter precip plays out in terms of total snowfall. in a vacuum, the heaviest snow should be at a point lake Jfk where a place like White Plains gets less.

 

but when you factor in temperatures, I wonder if that’s actually the case. Wont know until it is done

[Stormlover74]

5 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

im curious how colder temps up north vs lighter precip plays out in terms of total snowfall. in a vacuum, the heaviest snow should be at a point lake Jfk where a place like White Plains gets less.

 

but when you factor in temperatures, I wonder if that’s actually the case. Wont know until it is done

There's usually that secondary weenie band further north.