Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[mahantango#1]

25 minutes ago, Voyager said:

+5 here, but as I moved the Wunderground map westward, I saw the crazy negative numbers to the west. It looked like mahantango was in the minus double digits as well.

Only -5 here might drop a degree till sunrise. 

[mahantango#1]

27 minutes ago, Voyager said:

+5 here, but as I moved the Wunderground map westward, I saw the crazy negative numbers to the west. It looked like mahantango was in the minus double digits as well.

Only -5 here might drop a degree till sunrise. 

[mahantango#1]

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Low of 6. This snowpack is relentless. We’ll see how much of a dent these next few days can put in it. 

[canderson]

8 was my low. Winds kept it from

faling. 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Through the first 8 days of the month, MDT is running 12.3 degrees BN.  Yahtzee.

National high of 90 near Glamis, CA and low of -27 at Watertown, NY.

Decent signal here from WPC for the weekend.  

[MAG5035]

It’ll def be warmer this week overall and much more comfortable compared to what we’ve been dealing with, though the only “warm” day with respect to average looks to come tomorrow. If temps manage into the 40s that’ll make for daytime highs that aren’t much more than a few degrees above average. Western and actual central probably get there but a lot of guidance suggests the Sus Valley doesn’t even get out of the 30s. Tuesday night temps will stay up and probably have more of a + departure but we’re already bleeding cold air back in by that point behind what is now mostly a dry frontal passage. Rest of the week looks like a continuation of below average temps, although much closer to normal. 

Then we’ll see what this weekend system does. Snow prospects look to hinge on degree of secondary development to the Mid-Atlantic coast as we will likely have a more marginal cold airmass to work with. Overnight Euro was more of a cutter hence the brief mix to rain solution. GFS and Canadian further south with the primary and has the defined secondary low (esp Canadian solution). I’m thinking high probability this isn’t a clean system (strictly snow), but also good possibility of at least front end snows. Immediately beyond that potential system this weekend we look to more significantly moderate temp-wise for a time next week. WPO is forecast to head significantly negative again in the longer term, reloading Canadian cold. Continued +EPO/-PNA in the progs may mean that focuses out west at first, I think we’ll continue to be more vulnerable to cutting systems in that timeframe (next week). 

We should welcome precip in any form and any kind of a more active storm pattern, because we’ve been building a pretty sizeable negative departure the last 6 months in basically the entire East. If we get this weekends system, that would make 3 full weeks since the last significant precip maker. 

90 day precip departures

 

180 day departures

[paweather]

6 hours ago, MickeyTim6533 said:

Just ignore him folks that’s all. Wow the cold over the past couple of weeks have been impressive. We look to warm up a bit finally but making the storm track more active with mix weather events and then IMO end of month a big dog comes.

[ChescoWx]

Today will set an all-time consecutive below freezing streak of 17 days for Chester County PA at a few stations including KMQS Airport, Atglen DEOS and West Grove DEOS. This breaks the old record of 16 days set from January 19, 1961 through February 3, 1961 at the Coatesville 1SW NWS Cooperative station. All locations should finally see temperatures break the freezing mark both tomorrow and Wednesday with highs in the 35-to-38-degree range. This is still a few degrees below our normal highs for mid-February. We turn colder again by Thursday and Friday with near or below freezing high temperatures returning. Snow/Ice or rain chances start to increase by Sunday.

[Jns2183]

It’ll def be warmer this week overall and much more comfortable compared to what we’ve been dealing with, though the only “warm” day with respect to average looks to come tomorrow. If temps manage into the 40s that’ll make for daytime highs that aren’t much more than a few degrees above average. Western and actual central probably get there but a lot of guidance suggests the Sus Valley doesn’t even get out of the 30s. Tuesday night temps will stay up and probably have more of a + departure but we’re already bleeding cold air back in by that point behind what is now mostly a dry frontal passage. Rest of the week looks like a continuation of below average temps, although much closer to normal. 
Then we’ll see what this weekend system does. Snow prospects look to hinge on degree of secondary development to the Mid-Atlantic coast as we will likely have a more marginal cold airmass to work with. Overnight Euro was more of a cutter hence the brief mix to rain solution. GFS and Canadian further south with the primary and has the defined secondary low (esp Canadian solution). I’m thinking high probability this isn’t a clean system (strictly snow), but also good possibility of at least front end snows. Immediately beyond that potential system this weekend we look to more significantly moderate temp-wise for a time next week. WPO is forecast to head significantly negative again in the longer term, reloading Canadian cold. Continued +EPO/-PNA in the progs may mean that focuses out west at first, I think we’ll continue to be more vulnerable to cutting systems in that timeframe (next week). 
We should welcome precip in any form and any kind of a more active storm pattern, because we’ve been building a pretty sizeable negative departure the last 6 months in basically the entire East. If we get this weekends system, that would make 3 full weeks since the last significant precip maker. 
90 day precip departures

 
180 day departures

I was worried about this exact dryness when looking at the long range right after our storm. It seems to be a theme the last few years that outside 1 maybe 2 incredibly wet months each year we have solidly been dry to very dry most months. It's not really fun praying for a deluge or tropical system every year just for the hope of being somewhat below normal. I miss the 2010's dearly

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[pasnownut]

Hi all.  Hope you had a good weekend.

Next weekend looks tricky, but I remind some that only a few days ago this week looked warm, and we're now down to a 1ish day "warmup".  

Nooner CMC is what dreams are made of.  Verbatim its a best case scenario, and not sure I believe, but really nice to look at.  Antecedent cold is there but as NAO is on the rise, so will be the thermal boundary, so the souther secondary is the way to the white promise land, as critical layers recover and we lose less cold. At least we are pulling off another solid week of winter.  

[RedSky]

6 hours ago, mahantango#1 said:

Soil? what does that even look like 

[mahantango#1]

40 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Soil? what does that even look like 

I guess we'll know in over a month what that looks like.

[Voyager]

32 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

I guess we'll know in over a month what that looks like.

I hope it's sooner than that...

[canderson]

53 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

I guess we'll know in over a month what that looks like.

My mulch out front is visible this afternoon around the edge of the sidewalk. 

[canderson]

More 35-45 mph winds Tuesday night through Wednesday night. 

[mahantango#1]

1 hour ago, canderson said:

More 35-45 mph winds Tuesday night through Wednesday night. 

Oh great!

[Voyager]

1 hour ago, canderson said:

More 35-45 mph winds Tuesday night through Wednesday night. 

You've got to be kidding...

[pawatch]

Tuesday night a chance of freezing rain…yuck.

It was a nice day today but never got above freezing. 26 degrees was the high.

[Blizzard of 93]

Here are CTP’s thoughts on the Sunday Winter storm chance.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Risk managing potential for Valentine`s Day
weekend storm

Aside from the 09/12Z GFS to some extent, an ensemble consensus
including ECMWF, CMC, NBM, and AI runs would lean toward an
increasing potential for wintry weather arriving by the second
half of Valentine`s Day weekend. That said, there is still plenty
of time and space between now and then. Wintry weather/impacts,
particularly details surrounding how much and what ptypes, are
uncertain/unclear. Confidence right now is on low side, but the
potential certainly exists and will need to be monitored in the
coming days.

[mahantango#1]

6 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Here are CTP’s thoughts on the Sunday Winter storm chance.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Risk managing potential for Valentine`s Day
weekend storm

Aside from the 09/12Z GFS to some extent, an ensemble consensus
including ECMWF, CMC, NBM, and AI runs would lean toward an
increasing potential for wintry weather arriving by the second
half of Valentine`s Day weekend. That said, there is still plenty
of time and space between now and then. Wintry weather/impacts,
particularly details surrounding how much and what ptypes, are
uncertain/unclear. Confidence right now is on low side, but the
potential certainly exists and will need to be monitored in the
coming days.

Some tv mets. are writing the storm off.

[Blizzard of 93]

36 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

Some tv mets. are writing the storm off.

Way too soon for that. Lots of options are still on the table.

[SnowPlowGuy88]

Absolutely. GFS is wintry to start and then flips to rain. CMC and Icon are pretty good for  our area. Euro can’t seem to make its mind up. Plenty of time for adjustments. I’m rooting for this one to give a nice 3”-6” on top of what’s left after the “thaw” that is this week. Even though highs have been below freezing, that sun angle is doin numbers on my southern exposure. I have liquid runoff almost every day it gets full sun

[Blizzard of 93]

48 minutes ago, SnowPlowGuy88 said:

Absolutely. GFS is wintry to start and then flips to rain. CMC and Icon are pretty good for  our area. Euro can’t seem to make its mind up. Plenty of time for adjustments. I’m rooting for this one to give a nice 3”-6” on top of what’s left after the “thaw” that is this week. Even though highs have been below freezing, that sun angle is doin numbers on my southern exposure. I have liquid runoff almost every day it gets full sun

My lean right now for this Sunday is a 3 to 6 type of front end snow thump that mixes or changes over depending on the final track.
I think that the chances of a high end event are diminishing, but I think a low end Warning to Advisory level snow are still on the table for many of us.

[canderson]

I’m honestly hoping for a rainstorm lol 

 

[Yardstickgozinya]

  I think the end of the month and early next month look interesting, but until I actually see snow falling.this coming weekend I'm comfortable right here in the doo doo camp.  The difference between me and some others not feeling the upcoming pattern, is that I want my intuition to be completely wrong. The way I see it, is if i'm wrong, everybody here that actually enjoys winter wins including myself. I'd rather be buried in snow than be right. I think this winter is far from dead just to be  clear, which is a long ways from my DOA thoughts in November.  

[SnowPlowGuy88]

9 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

My lean right now for this Sunday is a 3 to 6 type of front end snow thump that mixes or changes over depending on the final track.
I think think that the chances of a high end event are diminishing, but I think a low end Warning to Advisory level snow are still on the table for many of us.

That is my untrained, snow muddled mind thoughts, as well. Still a lot of time, but I like where we are at. The warmup has backed off some. And who doesn’t like snow on snow? Haha. Let’s bring it home, even if it is the last one for the year. 
 

We did the cold better than expected this winter. Time to cash in on it. 

[Blizzard of 93]

@mitchnick

I liked the look at the end of the 18z EPS as well & think it would have delivered a decent front end thump for southern PA on to the north if the run continued.

6hr snowfall on 18z Eps at 144hrs. Nothing in our area before that hour.