Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[mahantango#1]

25 minutes ago, Voyager said:

+5 here, but as I moved the Wunderground map westward, I saw the crazy negative numbers to the west. It looked like mahantango was in the minus double digits as well.

Only -5 here might drop a degree till sunrise. 

[mahantango#1]

27 minutes ago, Voyager said:

+5 here, but as I moved the Wunderground map westward, I saw the crazy negative numbers to the west. It looked like mahantango was in the minus double digits as well.

Only -5 here might drop a degree till sunrise. 

[mahantango#1]

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Low of 6. This snowpack is relentless. We’ll see how much of a dent these next few days can put in it. 

[canderson]

8 was my low. Winds kept it from

faling. 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Through the first 8 days of the month, MDT is running 12.3 degrees BN.  Yahtzee.

National high of 90 near Glamis, CA and low of -27 at Watertown, NY.

Decent signal here from WPC for the weekend.  

[MAG5035]

It’ll def be warmer this week overall and much more comfortable compared to what we’ve been dealing with, though the only “warm” day with respect to average looks to come tomorrow. If temps manage into the 40s that’ll make for daytime highs that aren’t much more than a few degrees above average. Western and actual central probably get there but a lot of guidance suggests the Sus Valley doesn’t even get out of the 30s. Tuesday night temps will stay up and probably have more of a + departure but we’re already bleeding cold air back in by that point behind what is now mostly a dry frontal passage. Rest of the week looks like a continuation of below average temps, although much closer to normal. 

Then we’ll see what this weekend system does. Snow prospects look to hinge on degree of secondary development to the Mid-Atlantic coast as we will likely have a more marginal cold airmass to work with. Overnight Euro was more of a cutter hence the brief mix to rain solution. GFS and Canadian further south with the primary and has the defined secondary low (esp Canadian solution). I’m thinking high probability this isn’t a clean system (strictly snow), but also good possibility of at least front end snows. Immediately beyond that potential system this weekend we look to more significantly moderate temp-wise for a time next week. WPO is forecast to head significantly negative again in the longer term, reloading Canadian cold. Continued +EPO/-PNA in the progs may mean that focuses out west at first, I think we’ll continue to be more vulnerable to cutting systems in that timeframe (next week). 

We should welcome precip in any form and any kind of a more active storm pattern, because we’ve been building a pretty sizeable negative departure the last 6 months in basically the entire East. If we get this weekends system, that would make 3 full weeks since the last significant precip maker. 

90 day precip departures

 

180 day departures

[paweather]

6 hours ago, MickeyTim6533 said:

Just ignore him folks that’s all. Wow the cold over the past couple of weeks have been impressive. We look to warm up a bit finally but making the storm track more active with mix weather events and then IMO end of month a big dog comes.

[ChescoWx]

Today will set an all-time consecutive below freezing streak of 17 days for Chester County PA at a few stations including KMQS Airport, Atglen DEOS and West Grove DEOS. This breaks the old record of 16 days set from January 19, 1961 through February 3, 1961 at the Coatesville 1SW NWS Cooperative station. All locations should finally see temperatures break the freezing mark both tomorrow and Wednesday with highs in the 35-to-38-degree range. This is still a few degrees below our normal highs for mid-February. We turn colder again by Thursday and Friday with near or below freezing high temperatures returning. Snow/Ice or rain chances start to increase by Sunday.

[Jns2183]

It’ll def be warmer this week overall and much more comfortable compared to what we’ve been dealing with, though the only “warm” day with respect to average looks to come tomorrow. If temps manage into the 40s that’ll make for daytime highs that aren’t much more than a few degrees above average. Western and actual central probably get there but a lot of guidance suggests the Sus Valley doesn’t even get out of the 30s. Tuesday night temps will stay up and probably have more of a + departure but we’re already bleeding cold air back in by that point behind what is now mostly a dry frontal passage. Rest of the week looks like a continuation of below average temps, although much closer to normal. 
Then we’ll see what this weekend system does. Snow prospects look to hinge on degree of secondary development to the Mid-Atlantic coast as we will likely have a more marginal cold airmass to work with. Overnight Euro was more of a cutter hence the brief mix to rain solution. GFS and Canadian further south with the primary and has the defined secondary low (esp Canadian solution). I’m thinking high probability this isn’t a clean system (strictly snow), but also good possibility of at least front end snows. Immediately beyond that potential system this weekend we look to more significantly moderate temp-wise for a time next week. WPO is forecast to head significantly negative again in the longer term, reloading Canadian cold. Continued +EPO/-PNA in the progs may mean that focuses out west at first, I think we’ll continue to be more vulnerable to cutting systems in that timeframe (next week). 
We should welcome precip in any form and any kind of a more active storm pattern, because we’ve been building a pretty sizeable negative departure the last 6 months in basically the entire East. If we get this weekends system, that would make 3 full weeks since the last significant precip maker. 
90 day precip departures

 
180 day departures

I was worried about this exact dryness when looking at the long range right after our storm. It seems to be a theme the last few years that outside 1 maybe 2 incredibly wet months each year we have solidly been dry to very dry most months. It's not really fun praying for a deluge or tropical system every year just for the hope of being somewhat below normal. I miss the 2010's dearly

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[pasnownut]

Hi all.  Hope you had a good weekend.

Next weekend looks tricky, but I remind some that only a few days ago this week looked warm, and we're now down to a 1ish day "warmup".  

Nooner CMC is what dreams are made of.  Verbatim its a best case scenario, and not sure I believe, but really nice to look at.  Antecedent cold is there but as NAO is on the rise, so will be the thermal boundary, so the souther secondary is the way to the white promise land, as critical layers recover and we lose less cold. At least we are pulling off another solid week of winter.