Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[canderson]

Winds might hit 40 tomorrow and the night.  

[mahantango#1]

5 minutes ago, canderson said:

Winds might hit 40 tomorrow and the night.  

Gonna be brutal if you have to be outside for any length of time tomorrow night.

[Jns2183]

Lord have mercy 

Apparently the neighbors who got popped had a multi year fued. I remember reading up on it and it was so ridiculous I was in shock nothing happened sooner. I believe it's worth stressing the backstory here, else people believe they are at risk from getting it from any of there neighbors at any time. Not that they deserved this, just that your chance of being gunned down by neighbor are in someway usually proportional to your behavior over years.

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[WmsptWx]

Just watched the video again. Goddamn. Hearing the guy howl in pain crying for the cops is insane.

[Eskimo Joe]

00z Euro gets warning level snowfall to I-76 next weekend. Big dog potential for the Mason-Dixon folks.

[Yardstickgozinya]

I'm calling next weekend early. I'm predicting somewhere between the 0 and 30" and I hope to god that i'm way off. 

[mahantango#1]

 

 

 

 

Wxrisk.com

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TIME TO START TO TALK ABOUIT JAN 25 NEXT WEEKEND

In January 5-6 edition of the NEXT 3 WEEKS Newsletter I discussed three possible East Coast winter storm threats (THREATS= chances) JAN 15-16… JAN 18- 19… JAN 23-25. And I stated SEVERAL times in those newsletters and on the videos that the problem with the first two events was that the MJO was going to be either Phase 6 or Phase 7 and that's not good for East Coast snowstorms. (January / PHASE 6 / La Nina 500mb pattern = VERY unfavorable.

The one I was really focused on was Third possibility or threat around January 23-25. But that was based on the hope or belief that MJO will be moving either from Phase 7 into Phase 8 or in Phase 8. Based upon all the current data that appears to be exactly what is happening.

IMAGE 1 is the snowstorm Bible. It is a 2 Volume study produced bn the AMS written by snowstorm specialists Paul Kocin and Dr Lewis Uccellini. It covers 33 major East Coast snowstorms since 1950… up through 2005 . Obviously there have been several winter storms since then so at some point the book may be upgraded again.

In studying East Coast snow storms you learn a few things. One is that the vast majority 25 of the 33 occur when the MJO is in Phase 8 or 1 with some East Coast snowstorms occurring in Phase 2 or Phase 7.

Second things about Big East Coast sno storms is that happen when the normal jet stream pattern across North America is disrupted by strong blocking in Greenland or having a giant ocean low that is over Southeastern Canada such as Nova Scotia or Newfoundland AND by having Arctic air Displaced out of Canada deeper into the US.

As you may know right now, most of the eastern CONUS are experiencing drought conditions. Even though the winter has been cold y east of the Mississippi River and on the East Coast in particular… it has been extremely dry. This is due in part to La Nina. However, with La Nina weakening the strongly indicates the MJO to move into phase 8 in late January and a good portion of February and then moving to Phase 1 IN he second half of February. SEE IMAGE #2

Does this guarantee a snowstorm for the East Coast?

no of course not .

Does it increase the probability ? Yes it does.

TOO MUCH COLD AIR ? Yes of course that is a problem during the winter season. A lot of people get really excited about big arctic outbreaks and they are important since they can cause heating bills to rise, disrupt plans, shut down schools, and cause all sorts of infrastructure problems. But having a persistently cold pattern with the Arctic air pouring out of Canada -- essentially a dominating Northern jet stream pattern = cold and dry.

In short a pattern which does not produce East Coast snow storms.

If you are a long-term follower WXRISK then you know I said for many years and in many videos that *** SPLIT FLOW WEATHER PATTERN ** are really good for the East Coast In terms of producing significant winter weather. Of ourse this depends on some Arctic air just not too much. Having buckets of art of gear pouring out of western Canada doesn't do anything except make the pattern cold and dry..

IMAGE 3 is the 500mb European model valid for Friday January 23rd. It is an extremely impressive winter storm pattern for the East Coast. The Polar Vortex is located just north of the Great Lakes which is extremely far south. But more importantly the jet stream pattern has split. The key to this event occurring is going to be the UPPER LOW off the southern CALF coast and how it interacts with the Polar Vortex in the northern Jet Stream as it comes East and tracks across Texas and the Gulf Coast.

IMAGE 4 = shows the early morning European model from Sunday and then the new afternoon run (0z and 12Z) . The early morning Sunday European model suggests that the southern CALIF LOW is going to come far enough north to drive warm air into the middle levels of the atmosphere. If so then the Mid-Atlantic would be hit by is a long duration serious heavy ice storm with significant power outages and all sorts of infrastructure problems with heavy snow OH PA NY New England .

The 12z Sunday afternoon European has a major snowstorm for the Mid-Atlantic because California LOW tracks for the South. The LOW tracks further south because the Polar Vortex is stronger and bigger.

SUMMARY January 25 event was one of the three events I talked about in early January that would occur this month. The first two were misses and did not really happen as I thought. This one -JAN 25- however has a better chance because of the MJO going into the favorable phase 8. And the development of a split flow pattern. Right now all I will say is that the pattern looks really great for next weekend for some kind of significant winter weather in the Ohio Valley the Mid-Atlantic and New England. But that is s all I am saying. It could be snow… it could be ice …it could be a combination.

3 KEYS

The MJO has to go into phase 8.

The pattern has to develop a split flow on the west coast of North America.

The Arctic air has to be in place across the Great Lakes in New England but not too much are together to push everything to the South and crush the southern system

[Itstrainingtime]

31 with heavy frost on the car and grass here in Palm Coast FL.

[mahantango#1]

5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

31 with heavy frost on the car and grass here in Palm Coast FL.

Enjoy those frosty temps.

[pawatch]

15 degrees and snow flurries. 

[Blizzard of 93]

15 for the low in Marysville 

[Blizzard of 93]

Good to see the AI models still looking great for this weekend’s chance.

Hopefully the Op runs trend back in that direction.

Lots on the table & it will be fascinating to watch it unfold this week.

[pasnownut]

Happy Monday.

Happy to report that my area got 4" sat morn, 3" sunday morn, then 1" sunday night.  Looks like 2-3" more than what they have here in Etown. 

Roads in Akron to Manheim, snow/icy but as i drove west twds Etown, roads were clear (yet school looks to be closed in Etown - pansy asses).

Looking forward to next weekends wintry fun, to add some (lots?) on this beautiful wintry landscape. Had the sleds out w/ my son/DIL last night after he spent the weekend plowing in New Holland. 

8 degrees on digi car thermo about 1 mile from house. 

Here's to a good week of trackin. 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Yesterday’s early morning snow combined with the late afternoon surprise dusting amounted to an additional 2.5” off of .21” liquid, for a weekend total of 4.7”. Low last night dropped to 14, as this snowpack should really be able to show its teeth in the nights ahead. Hoping for a nice storm this weekend, have to get back into the swing of things. Onward. 

[paweather]

Let’s hope the H to the north doesn’t suppress the weekend storm

[Voyager]

All I'm going to say is...ugh. This is not going to be fun today.

[mahantango#1]

2 minutes ago, Voyager said:

All I'm going to say is...ugh. This is not going to be fun today.

Or tomorrow too.

[WmsptWx]

19 minutes ago, paweather said:

Let’s hope the H to the north doesn’t suppress the weekend storm

This is my prediction unfortunately. 

[Superstorm]

That weekend storm is got me licking my chops!


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[pasnownut]

35 minutes ago, paweather said:

Let’s hope the H to the north doesn’t suppress the weekend storm

suppression depression.  

dont wanna think of it, but ya have to.  1048 HP is stoud and likely the bully on the block.  Hopin it has a little give and as we see things trend back north that we get back into the goods.  

[pasnownut]

8 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

That weekend storm is got me licking my chops!


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its gonna be a big dog for many.  Just hope that includes us

[Jns2183]

That weekend storm is got me licking my chops!


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I remember laughing out loud when after all the damn hours I spent collecting daily data for NAO, PNA, AO, GBI, MJO, a couple other indicies going back to 1950 and running all the multivariate time lag correlations that at most those indicies explained roughly 6% of snowfall variance in our area. Further, that if I could have a super computer that held infinite historical data it would be a miracle if I approached 40%. So much of our storms come down frankly to dumb luck and pulling the slot machine handle. That said it isn't a slot machine, and our luck the past 5 years has rivaled the 1950s for worst luck ever. Eventually the luck will change. This weekend is as good as time for it to change as any I've seen.

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[ChescoWx]

A prolonged stretch of well below normal temperatures are likely across our area for at least the next 2 weeks. In fact, with the exception of Thursday where temperatures will moderate to above normal (around 40 degrees) we may not see another day this month with afternoon high temperatures above freezing. Temperatures tonight should fall to near 10 degrees with highs tomorrow struggling to top 20 degrees. Temperatures by Wednesday morning will be close to zero in the typical colder valley locations. Even colder weather moves in by the weekend with high temperatures on Saturday remaining around the mid-teens with lows by Sunday morning again near zero. Our next chance of snow looks like it will be possible toward the end of next weekend.

[pasnownut]

Nooners start off well w/ ICON notably north of 0z.  SLP about 200miles N of 0z run.  Couple more of them and its boom time....but it is the ICON, so lets just look for trends right now.

 

[WmsptWx]

3 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Nooners start off well w/ ICON notably north of 0z.  SLP about 200miles N of 0z run.  Couple more of them and its boom time....but it is the ICON, so lets just look for trends right now.

 

Potentially a good start 

[paweather]

6 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Nooners start off well w/ ICON notably north of 0z.  SLP about 200miles N of 0z run.  Couple more of them and its boom time....but it is the ICON, so lets just look for trends right now.

 

I’m not sure with this type of cold it could be an MA special 

[Superstorm]

Was able to get to 12F with the fresh snowpack.


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[Yardstickgozinya]

 I'd be careful with the Euro Ai. That baby's running at 30 petaflops . That's a lot a hell of a lot more flops than were used to. 

[pasnownut]

3 minutes ago, paweather said:

I’m not sure with this type of cold it could be an MA special 

Yep, legit concern.  Just remember that things usually tick north and west of late as we close in, so keep in mind when we are sniffin cirrus on models.  Cold is more stable, so it gives added credence to the worry tho.   

[pasnownut]

@138 GFS slp about 200-250 WNW of 6z.  I'm ok w/ that move.  

Thats 2 +'s so far.