Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[Yardstickgozinya]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Still going here. Just lt, non-accumulating stuff that's not on 

Very tiny dandarites started falling from the sky right around 5:00am and continued all through the morning hours here. 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

22 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

What type of gauge do you have

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[CarlislePaWx]

3 hours ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

I’m still at 30 degrees and everything is caked in a solid quarter inch of solid ice. Not going anywhere until things soften up a bit this afternoon. Thought I’d have more sleet but it’s a pretty scene out there either way. Ready for more cold as we approach the New Year. Melting down the gauge and will report back with qpf. Toodles. 

I just melted down my freezing rain and sleet.  It came out to precisely 0.25" (liquid).  There was no plain rain recorded throughout the entirety of the event as the temperature never went above 32.0 degrees.  Ice-coated trees and grass are barely showing signs of melting with a current temperature of 33.6 degrees.  Pavement and sidewalks are mostly ice-free now.  They experienced the least accumulation of ice from the storm.

It's next to impossible to come up with precise measurements of sleet versus freezing rain, although it seems obvious that the predominant form was from freezing rain.  I am going to go with 0.3" of sleet (0.09" liquid) and 0.16" of freezing rain.  The final few hours on either side of midnight were a "heavy" freezing drizzle.  It looked like the tiniest snowflakes floating and flying around, but it wasn't snow.

This precipitation brings my YTD total to 34.57" which represents an annual deficit of approximately 13.5" compared to the normal annual average of 48", which is the total I recorded during last year.  I'll have the final yearly total after our last precip event coming up tomorrow evening into Monday afternoon.

[Itstrainingtime]

Loved Penn State's effort today. Satisfying way to end a crazy season. It'll be interesting to see what Ethan decides to do. I'm a fan.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

13 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Loved Penn State's effort today. Satisfying way to end a crazy season. It'll be interesting to see what Ethan decides to do. I'm a fan.

Absolutely, fantastic effort. Dominated the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, and that was with an Oline of nearly all backups. Ethan was outstanding, sure looks like he could be the future. I was impressed with the entire team today in tough conditions. Nice way to end the year. Onward. 

[mahantango#1]

33.6 was the high today. 

[Blizzard of 93]

The upcoming advertised pattern during the first half of January says “buckle up”!

[Caveman]

1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Loved Penn State's effort today. Satisfying way to end a crazy season. It'll be interesting to see what Ethan decides to do. I'm a fan.

If he was truly being advised to better his chances in the NFL, he should stay on at PSU (as a backup), learn under the new HC and OC and their 5th year QB, then play one or two years at PSU and take it from there...

[MAG5035]

7 hours ago, canderson said:

Here are this morning’s CTP thoughts. 
 

Recent NBM/LREF model guidance paints an impressive signal for
gusty winds on Monday after the cold frontal passage with
EC/GFS model guidance in fair agreement in a 850mb 70kt LLJ
across the Laurel Highlands. Additionally, BUFKIT GFS Time Sections
for KJST show 50 kt isotachs down below 500 ft AGL, and 60 kts
at about 800 ft AGL. With the intense SFC low sliding by to our
north, there`s not a significant 3 hourly pressure rise (i.e.,
GRTN 5 mb/3 hr) accompanying the 30 deg F temp plunge on
Monday.

We topped out winds in the low 50s (KTS) across the highest
ridges just west of Interstate 99 and west of RT 219 in the
Laurel Highlands. That being said, would like to see another
model run or two before hoisting a High Wind Watch as the NAM
and other blended guidance indicates solid Advisory Criteria
winds.

To their point about the pressure rises, this bombing low is progged to track NE through the central Lakes. A more ideal track for a C-PA high wind warning type event in this type of a bombing Lakes low scenario would be up through Lakes Erie and Ontario. 

They did opt on going high wind watch earlier today for the Laurels counties as well as here and down in Bedford County. In terms of CTP’s coverage area, I personally think high wind criteria may only be reached on the main Allegheny ridgeline (Cambria,Somerset) with a general wind advisory elsewhere, perhaps up to 55mph gusts just off the Alleghenies and 50mph in the Sus Valley. This is progged to bomb out to a very strong low (perhaps into the 970-975mb range), so it will be quite windy area-wide in the wake of it either way with LES and upslope lighting up in western PA later Monday into Tuesday. 

Another thing to keep an eye out for tomorrow in the late-morning/afternoon timeframe is some freezing rain at the onset of an initial area of WAA precip that noses up through C-PA. Focus of that seems to be north central around IPT but some guidance is showing trace ice down as far as AOO/UNV  to a tad north of MDT. Only takes a T to throw up an advisory for ice so don’t be surprised if those advisories up north get expanded a bit further down this evening. 

[Blizzard of 93]

Next up for a light snow chance is another Clipper potential around New Year’s Day.

[canderson]

1 hour ago, MAG5035 said:

To their point about the pressure rises, this bombing low is progged to track NE through the central Lakes. A more ideal track for a C-PA high wind warning type event in this type of a bombing Lakes low scenario would be up through Lakes Erie and Ontario. 

They did opt on going high wind watch earlier today for the Laurels counties as well as here and down in Bedford County. In terms of CTP’s coverage area, I personally think high wind criteria may only be reached on the main Allegheny ridgeline (Cambria,Somerset) with a general wind advisory elsewhere, perhaps up to 55mph gusts just off the Alleghenies and 50mph in the Sus Valley. This is progged to bomb out to a very strong low (perhaps into the 970-975mb range), so it will be quite windy area-wide in the wake of it either way with LES and upslope lighting up in western PA later Monday into Tuesday. 

Another thing to keep an eye out for tomorrow in the late-morning/afternoon timeframe is some freezing rain at the onset of an initial area of WAA precip that noses up through C-PA. Focus of that seems to be north central around IPT but some guidance is showing trace ice down as far as AOO/UNV  to a tad north of MDT. Only takes a T to throw up an advisory for ice so don’t be surprised if those advisories up north get expanded a bit further down this evening. 

Thanks for the heads up on potential zr - I wasn’t aware that was a chance (I’m dumb and assumed any precut would’ve in front of the temp collapse!). 

[WmsptWx]

32 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Next up for a light snow chance is another Clipper potential around New Year’s Day.

Getting pretty goddamned tired of the dry slots...

[Jns2183]

Getting pretty goddamned tired of the dry slots...

We need a southern stream system and all the difficulties that brings us to get rid of that dry strip.

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[Blizzard of 93]

Just now, Jns2183 said:

We need a southern stream system and all the difficulties that brings us to get rid of that dry strip.

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The first half of January looks to bring this potential…

[Jns2183]

To their point about the pressure rises, this bombing low is progged to track NE through the central Lakes. A more ideal track for a C-PA high wind warning type event in this type of a bombing Lakes low scenario would be up through Lakes Erie and Ontario. 
They did opt on going high wind watch earlier today for the Laurels counties as well as here and down in Bedford County. In terms of CTP’s coverage area, I personally think high wind criteria may only be reached on the main Allegheny ridgeline (Cambria,Somerset) with a general wind advisory elsewhere, perhaps up to 55mph gusts just off the Alleghenies and 50mph in the Sus Valley. This is progged to bomb out to a very strong low (perhaps into the 970-975mb range), so it will be quite windy area-wide in the wake of it either way with LES and upslope lighting up in western PA later Monday into Tuesday. 
Another thing to keep an eye out for tomorrow in the late-morning/afternoon timeframe is some freezing rain at the onset of an initial area of WAA precip that noses up through C-PA. Focus of that seems to be north central around IPT but some guidance is showing trace ice down as far as AOO/UNV  to a tad north of MDT. Only takes a T to throw up an advisory for ice so don’t be surprised if those advisories up north get expanded a bit further down this evening. 

We had a 68mph guest with wind advisory just two weeks ago

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[Jns2183]

I just melted down my freezing rain and sleet.  It came out to precisely 0.25" (liquid).  There was no plain rain recorded throughout the entirety of the event as the temperature never went above 32.0 degrees.  Ice-coated trees and grass are barely showing signs of melting with a current temperature of 33.6 degrees.  Pavement and sidewalks are mostly ice-free now.  They experienced the least accumulation of ice from the storm.
It's next to impossible to come up with precise measurements of sleet versus freezing rain, although it seems obvious that the predominant form was from freezing rain.  I am going to go with 0.3" of sleet (0.09" liquid) and 0.16" of freezing rain.  The final few hours on either side of midnight were a "heavy" freezing drizzle.  It looked like the tiniest snowflakes floating and flying around, but it wasn't snow.
This precipitation brings my YTD total to 34.57" which represents an annual deficit of approximately 13.5" compared to the normal annual average of 48", which is the total I recorded during last year.  I'll have the final yearly total after our last precip event coming up tomorrow evening into Monday afternoon.

What's nuts are there are people within 10-15 miles of me who are above 60", even close to 70" for the year. Convection seems to be all that matters any more.

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[Mount Joy Snowman]

My daytime temp never got above 33 today. Now at 31.  Been a fair amount of low busts in the temp department lately. Love it. 

[WmsptWx]

If you can spare the money, try to find a way to drop $25 or something into whatever coffer is needed to keep Ethan Grunkemeyer in State College. 

 

Get him a couple of offensive linemen, two wide receivers, and a solid offensive coordinator and he's the guy. Save the $3M that was allegedly offered to Beau Pribula. A rental is not needed. 

[TimB]

On 12/12/2025 at 1:45 PM, ChescoWx said:

By the way Timmy funny how my "improperly sited wx station" is statistically exactly the same average temperature variance over 17 full years vs KMQS a raw difference of only 0.4 degrees - also hate to break it to you but uh the latest 12z Euro has a high of 29 degrees now on Christmas Day....

Bump. KMQS hit 50.2 on Christmas and even your station got to 49.1. Good thing you didn’t take that bet.

[Jns2183]

Bump. KMQS hit 50.2 on Christmas and even your station got to 49.1. Good thing you didn’t take that bet.

What is that even for? We are sitting at more than a 5 degree departure for the month and probably will end up closer to negative 6.

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[mahantango#1]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service State College PA
221 AM EST Sun Dec 28 2025

PAZ006-012-045-049>053-058-282030-
/O.EXA.KCTP.WW.Y.0028.251228T1800Z-251229T0600Z/
Potter-Northern Clinton-Southern Clinton-Union-Snyder-Montour-
Northumberland-Columbia-Schuylkill-
Including the cities of Shamokin, Sunbury, Berwick, Lewisburg,
Danville, Bloomsburg, Pottsville, Renovo, Selinsgrove, Lock
Haven, and Coudersport
221 AM EST Sun Dec 28 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1
AM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Freezing rain expected. Total ice accumulations up to one
  tenth of an inch possible.

* WHERE...Potter, Northern Clinton, Southern Clinton, Union, Snyder,
  Northumberland, Montour, Columbia, and Schuylkill Counties.

* WHEN...From 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Difficult travel conditions are possible.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Temperatures will gradually increase
  overnight tonight into Monday morning, ending the threat for
  freezing rain.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared for slippery roads. Slow down and use caution while
driving. If you are going outside, watch your first few steps taken
on stairs, sidewalks, and driveways. These surfaces could be icy and
slippery, increasing your risk of a fall and injury.

[mahantango#1]

One thing I noticed last night after temps. dropped below freezing, the consistency of that sleet, freezing rain  mixture on the ground changed. Yesterday during the afternoon you could walk on it not being slippy. Last night it turned to more of to pure smooth ice. Making it quite treacherous to even try to walk on.

[Yardstickgozinya]

12 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

What is that even for? We are sitting at more than a 5 degree departure for the month and probably will end up closer to negative 6.

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The less a fish bites, the more bait you gotta throw. Not everybody's an easy catch like your old neighbor here. Hopefully you didn't miss your little flizzards on the sixes yesterday. 

[Yardstickgozinya]

I was thinking about all the times that I  posted pictures and given advice, about how well a slightly modified pitchfork works to remove Ice from paved surfaces going a way back to my Flatheadsickness days. I'm sure glad I didn't have to kill myself yesterday and I find it very satisfying watching that s*** peel right off effortlessly while others are breaking their back. 

[Voyager]

1 hour ago, Jns2183 said:

What is that even for? We are sitting at more than a 5 degree departure for the month and probably will end up closer to negative 6.

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It's just Tim's continuing harassment of Chesco in our sub-forum.

[Blizzard of 93]

Here is the 0z EPS look for the day 10 to 15 period.

[Blizzard of 93]

6z GFS has this moisture laden storm on the 6th this run.

The potential period is going to be interesting to track.

[paweather]

22 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

6z GFS has this moisture laden storm on the 6th this run.

The potential period is going to be interesting to track.

This would be nice! 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

My current temp of 29 hasn’t budged all through the night. 

[pawatch]

CPT non-diurnal temperature trend the next 36 hours 

I looked it up, one answer…These are what we call non-diurnal temperatures. It's a fancy way of talking about high or low temperatures that don't occur when they usually do. 
28 degrees this morning.