Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[Yardstickgozinya]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Still going here. Just lt, non-accumulating stuff that's not on 

Very tiny dandarites started falling from the sky right around 5:00am and continued all through the morning hours here. 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

22 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

What type of gauge do you have

Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk
 

[CarlislePaWx]

3 hours ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

I’m still at 30 degrees and everything is caked in a solid quarter inch of solid ice. Not going anywhere until things soften up a bit this afternoon. Thought I’d have more sleet but it’s a pretty scene out there either way. Ready for more cold as we approach the New Year. Melting down the gauge and will report back with qpf. Toodles. 

I just melted down my freezing rain and sleet.  It came out to precisely 0.25" (liquid).  There was no plain rain recorded throughout the entirety of the event as the temperature never went above 32.0 degrees.  Ice-coated trees and grass are barely showing signs of melting with a current temperature of 33.6 degrees.  Pavement and sidewalks are mostly ice-free now.  They experienced the least accumulation of ice from the storm.

It's next to impossible to come up with precise measurements of sleet versus freezing rain, although it seems obvious that the predominant form was from freezing rain.  I am going to go with 0.3" of sleet (0.09" liquid) and 0.16" of freezing rain.  The final few hours on either side of midnight were a "heavy" freezing drizzle.  It looked like the tiniest snowflakes floating and flying around, but it wasn't snow.

This precipitation brings my YTD total to 34.57" which represents an annual deficit of approximately 13.5" compared to the normal annual average of 48", which is the total I recorded during last year.  I'll have the final yearly total after our last precip event coming up tomorrow evening into Monday afternoon.

[Itstrainingtime]

Loved Penn State's effort today. Satisfying way to end a crazy season. It'll be interesting to see what Ethan decides to do. I'm a fan.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

13 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Loved Penn State's effort today. Satisfying way to end a crazy season. It'll be interesting to see what Ethan decides to do. I'm a fan.

Absolutely, fantastic effort. Dominated the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, and that was with an Oline of nearly all backups. Ethan was outstanding, sure looks like he could be the future. I was impressed with the entire team today in tough conditions. Nice way to end the year. Onward. 

[mahantango#1]

33.6 was the high today. 

[Blizzard of 93]

The upcoming advertised pattern during the first half of January says “buckle up”!

[Caveman]

1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Loved Penn State's effort today. Satisfying way to end a crazy season. It'll be interesting to see what Ethan decides to do. I'm a fan.

If he was truly being advised to better his chances in the NFL, he should stay on at PSU (as a backup), learn under the new HC and OC and their 5th year QB, then play one or two years at PSU and take it from there...

[MAG5035]

7 hours ago, canderson said:

Here are this morning’s CTP thoughts. 
 

Recent NBM/LREF model guidance paints an impressive signal for
gusty winds on Monday after the cold frontal passage with
EC/GFS model guidance in fair agreement in a 850mb 70kt LLJ
across the Laurel Highlands. Additionally, BUFKIT GFS Time Sections
for KJST show 50 kt isotachs down below 500 ft AGL, and 60 kts
at about 800 ft AGL. With the intense SFC low sliding by to our
north, there`s not a significant 3 hourly pressure rise (i.e.,
GRTN 5 mb/3 hr) accompanying the 30 deg F temp plunge on
Monday.

We topped out winds in the low 50s (KTS) across the highest
ridges just west of Interstate 99 and west of RT 219 in the
Laurel Highlands. That being said, would like to see another
model run or two before hoisting a High Wind Watch as the NAM
and other blended guidance indicates solid Advisory Criteria
winds.

To their point about the pressure rises, this bombing low is progged to track NE through the central Lakes. A more ideal track for a C-PA high wind warning type event in this type of a bombing Lakes low scenario would be up through Lakes Erie and Ontario. 

They did opt on going high wind watch earlier today for the Laurels counties as well as here and down in Bedford County. In terms of CTP’s coverage area, I personally think high wind criteria may only be reached on the main Allegheny ridgeline (Cambria,Somerset) with a general wind advisory elsewhere, perhaps up to 55mph gusts just off the Alleghenies and 50mph in the Sus Valley. This is progged to bomb out to a very strong low (perhaps into the 970-975mb range), so it will be quite windy area-wide in the wake of it either way with LES and upslope lighting up in western PA later Monday into Tuesday. 

Another thing to keep an eye out for tomorrow in the late-morning/afternoon timeframe is some freezing rain at the onset of an initial area of WAA precip that noses up through C-PA. Focus of that seems to be north central around IPT but some guidance is showing trace ice down as far as AOO/UNV  to a tad north of MDT. Only takes a T to throw up an advisory for ice so don’t be surprised if those advisories up north get expanded a bit further down this evening. 

[Blizzard of 93]

Next up for a light snow chance is another Clipper potential around New Year’s Day.