The Return of the 12/5 Snowstorm

[Kay]

3 minutes ago, nj2va said:

You’re telling me

Take

[WxUSAF]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Man that would wreck that morning commute. Cold powder falling at sunrise on cold roads after several days of temps below normal.

Yeah this will accumulate efficiently on roads, especially side roads.

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

Yeah this will accumulate efficiently on roads, especially side roads.

The sad part is that one inch of snow on a week day cripples this area. 

[TSSN+]

I’m sad lol. Least I’ll be at work and maybe see a little something in Jefferson county WV 

[ravensrule]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

I’m sad lol. Least I’ll be at work and maybe see a little something in Jefferson county WV 

In the long run you’re a lot better off living where you do. 

[TSSN+]

3 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

In the long run you’re a lot better off living where you do. 

Haven’t been seeing very much in the past few years up here. So many southern sliders in these Nina’s. Hopefully can pull something out soon cause the legit storm drought up here is wild. I haven’t seen a storm over 7” since 2016. 

[ravensrule]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Haven’t been seeing very much in the past few years up here. So many southern sliders in these Nina’s. Hopefully can pull something out soon cause the legit storm drought up here is wild. I haven’t seen a storm over 7” since 2016. 

I can guarantee you that over the next 10 years you will do way better. I haven’t seen a storm over 5” since 2016. 

[winter_warlock]

1 hour ago, bncho said:

Yes, I know it's 90 %tile, but I just don't understand how this is even remotely possible.

I don't think any model even shows that lol

[MillvilleWx]

14 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

@SnowenOutThere 0z nam 3k soundings look much better for dendrite production. I just looked at DC, but a nice wide DGZ with moderate lift for several hours tomorrow morning. This is 12z for DC.

Wow! That is one of the nicer soundings you'll see with this one. Looks like winter will be knocking by morning for many. Along and south of Rt50 may be the spot now, so a bit further north expansion comparted to previous thinking. I'll be on night shift till 6am, so probably driving home in it. Looking forward to the festive feel! 

[WxUSAF]

Just now, MillvilleWx said:

Wow! That is one of the nicer soundings you'll see with this one. Looks like winter will be knocking by morning for many. Along and south of Rt50 may be the spot now, so a bit further north expansion comparted to previous thinking. I'll be on night shift till 6am, so probably driving home in it. Looking forward to the festive feel! 

You had a small typo there on I70 and accidentally typed “Rt50”

[nj2va]

2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Wow! That is one of the nicer soundings you'll see with this one. Looks like winter will be knocking by morning for many. Along and south of Rt50 may be the spot now, so a bit further north expansion comparted to previous thinking. I'll be on night shift till 6am, so probably driving home in it. Looking forward to the festive feel! 

[ravensrule]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

You had a small typo there on I70 and accidentally typed “Rt50”

He has sticky fingers. 

[HighStakes]

4 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Haven’t been seeing very much in the past few years up here. So many southern sliders in these Nina’s. Hopefully can pull something out soon cause the legit storm drought up here is wild. I haven’t seen a storm over 7” since 2016. 

We had two 7 plus inches storms in 2020/2021 here. March 2018 also. 

[high risk]

3 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

I don't think any model even shows that lol

 

    Actually, there are a few SREF and GEFS members that (no surprise) are super wet.    Those inputs are driving those high percentile values.

[EastCoast NPZ]

12 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Haven’t been seeing very much in the past few years up here. So many southern sliders in these Nina’s. Hopefully can pull something out soon cause the legit storm drought up here is wild. I haven’t seen a storm over 7” since 2016. 

Stephens City hasn't seen a 6" storm since Jan 2016.  

[Disc]

A few flakes falling now. (Blacksburg, VA)

[TSSN+]

12 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

I can guarantee you that over the next 10 years you will do way better. I haven’t seen a storm over 5” since 2016. 

We all just need to get clocked 

[nw baltimore wx]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

We all just need to get clocked 

Yes. 

[Demeter]

I know it’s OT, but I have a Xmas tree farm trip planned for tomorrow. There was 1 other time it was snowing while going and it’s kind of magical for me. I’m such a snow ho. 

[Interstate]

6 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

We all just need to get clocked 

We will this year. 

[ravensrule]

6 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

We all just need to get clocked 

We need a good 2009, 2010 or 2016 storm. Everyone here will be in a lot  better mood. 

[Eskimo Joe]

5 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

We all just need to get clocked 

Get clocked Christmas Day. We wake up to an amber sunrise that leads to a steel grey sky. Just after lunch snow starts falling and it's a solid 8" - 12" of cold powder that ends just before midnight. Then on New Year's Ever we get a nice clipper running along I-64 that put another 4" - 6" of sugar on top.

[SnowenOutThere]

33 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

@SnowenOutThere 0z nam 3k soundings look much better for dendrite production. I just looked at DC, but a nice wide DGZ with moderate lift for several hours tomorrow morning. This is 12z for DC.

Looks like its the band hits Charlottesville a couple hours earlier (4am sounding for refence). Will be a fun Jebwalk! (sorry to my poor roommate who has to deal with that though). But what a thing of beauty compared to the HRRR runs we were looking at earlier. 

 

[Eskimo Joe]

Early on, but it's good to see mPING reports following the darker returns. Maybe the dry air won't be stubborn?

[baltosquid]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Early on, but it's good to see mPING reports following the darker returns. Maybe the dry air won't be stubborn?

Get out there with a squirt gun and point it skyward. Do your part.

 

Edit: Also ICON a smidge north/wetter

[SnowenOutThere]

700mb frontgen is entering the southern parts of our region were now at Nowcasting time!

Also some weird line of 850 frontgen over NOVA that has been strengthening over the past couple hours. Anyone know whats up with that?

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

700mb frontgen is entering the southern parts of our region were now at Nowcasting time!

Also some weird line of 850 frontgen over NOVA that has been strengthening over the past couple hours. Anyone know whats up with that?

850 frontogenesis might be the cold front pressing down. Check out the wind barbs over MD and WV panhandle compared to central VA. Watch this area closely for a deathbed to set up.