WxUSAF Posted December 4, 2025 Share Posted December 4, 2025 For any psychopaths awake at 2-5am, don’t freak out by the “donut hole” look on LWX radar. That will be due to dry air subliming our snow as @SnowenOutThere posted about. It does not mean models are over predicting precipitation, etc. 7 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 4, 2025 Share Posted December 4, 2025 Gfs bump little north and precip is heavier 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted December 4, 2025 Share Posted December 4, 2025 Is there a rhyme or reason that the “last minute north bump” is seemingly a thing? Seems to happen a lot. Models overdoing the high pressure to the north?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted December 4, 2025 Share Posted December 4, 2025 how we lookin on the GOOFUS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
batmanbrad Posted December 4, 2025 Share Posted December 4, 2025 18Z RGEM about the same as previous run, maybe just a hair better but mostly noise I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 4, 2025 Share Posted December 4, 2025 1 minute ago, Paleocene said: how we lookin on the GOOFUS 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted December 4, 2025 Share Posted December 4, 2025 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: locked in for my inch. time to sharpen the shovels! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 4, 2025 Share Posted December 4, 2025 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: 1/2” at work in Charlestown WV at least. Pixie dust in Hanover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted December 4, 2025 Share Posted December 4, 2025 4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: more north i believe 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 4, 2025 Share Posted December 4, 2025 1 minute ago, Paleocene said: locked in for my inch. time to sharpen the shovels! Without any medicine?. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 4, 2025 Share Posted December 4, 2025 2 minutes ago, bncho said: more north i believe In my mind this is still a Traveler's Advisory event. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 4, 2025 Share Posted December 4, 2025 Gorgeous moon rise in Frederick 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted December 4, 2025 Share Posted December 4, 2025 I can't believe Bacon Ridge in Crownsville (160-180' elevation) is yet again looking to do better than Parrs Ridge in Carroll County (max 1000' elevation). I'll be up at 3am. I'm charging my headlamps for my 4am hike. Gfs nudged north. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted December 4, 2025 Share Posted December 4, 2025 19 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: For any psychopaths awake at 2-5am, don’t freak out by the “donut hole” look on LWX radar. That will be due to dry air subliming our snow as @SnowenOutThere posted about. It does not mean models are over predicting precipitation, etc. The first radar hallucinations of the year! Come at me, Ms. Pacman! 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Wizard Posted December 4, 2025 Share Posted December 4, 2025 All we need is 0.7” at DCA and this December is snowier than the last 7 combined. Wild stuff! And I think there’s a pretty good chance of that. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted December 4, 2025 Share Posted December 4, 2025 Snow cam is ready to go! 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 4, 2025 Share Posted December 4, 2025 27 minutes ago, Imgoinhungry said: Is there a rhyme or reason that the “last minute north bump” is seemingly a thing? Seems to happen a lot. Models overdoing the high pressure to the north? . Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWC Split Posted December 4, 2025 Share Posted December 4, 2025 Just finished a final cut of the grass at a proper 2” and got the last of the leaves up. Snow can now fall on a perfectly manicured carpet. Beautiful moon rise and a crisp 36/22 at 5:10 in Haymarket. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 4, 2025 Share Posted December 4, 2025 17 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Gorgeous moon rise in Frederick We may get the rare full moon amplification out of this 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deer Posted December 4, 2025 Share Posted December 4, 2025 First time checking the board this winter as I didn't wanna jinx anything. Worst case scenario it seems like NOVA gets flakes in early December, I'll take that and run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted December 4, 2025 Share Posted December 4, 2025 we're seeing two amazing trends happen in tandem with our energy. 1. our shortwave is trending slower/deeper than cams initially anticipated. take a look at the hrrr trend over OK with our shortwave. 2. our midwest vort that digs and raises heights is digging more than expected over nebraska and looks more consolidated. these two trends (can't paste gifs bc of the file limit, unfortunately) should help lift our storm more north than expected. feeling very optimistic about this one, our only fail mode is really something that's just dissipitating as we get closer. more boom than bust potential with this one imo, especially near the metro. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 4, 2025 Share Posted December 4, 2025 23 hours ago, Bob Chill said: I got 11" last year and it was the best of the 3 since we bought property here. 2 previous were basically shutouts. Sounds awesome right? Lol I guess not, lol But you being south does give you better nina climo, wouldn't you say? You don't have to miss the southern sliders (or even the front end of Miller Bs?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted December 4, 2025 Share Posted December 4, 2025 21z HRRR might be the first run of the HRRR such that the entire storm is within its run. And dare I say the heavier precipitation is more north than 18z. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 4, 2025 Share Posted December 4, 2025 Reminds me of Jan 13th 2019... just not nearly as much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 4, 2025 Author Share Posted December 4, 2025 50 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: For any psychopaths awake at 2-5am, don’t freak out by the “donut hole” look on LWX radar. That will be due to dry air subliming our snow as @SnowenOutThere posted about. It does not mean models are over predicting precipitation, etc. Are we allowed to panic if the snow falling isn’t good ratio stuff because of misaligned DGZ and lift? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 4, 2025 Author Share Posted December 4, 2025 37 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Gorgeous moon rise in Frederick Mine has a halo around it which can only mean one thing… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted December 4, 2025 Share Posted December 4, 2025 Just now, SnowenOutThere said: Mine has a halo around it which can only mean one thing… the moon is a secretly a snow god and it's endorsing this storm? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hstorm Posted December 4, 2025 Share Posted December 4, 2025 20 minutes ago, PWC Split said: Just finished a final cut of the grass at a proper 2” and got the last of the leaves up. Snow can now fall on a perfectly manicured carpet. Beautiful moon rise and a crisp 36/22 at 5:10 in Haymarket. If you cut it to 4" your snow totals would increase dramatically. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 4, 2025 Share Posted December 4, 2025 3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Are we allowed to panic if the snow falling isn’t good ratio stuff because of misaligned DGZ and lift? We’re getting 20:1 in Columbia, not sure for you 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 4, 2025 Author Share Posted December 4, 2025 2 minutes ago, bncho said: the moon is a secretly a snow god and it's endorsing this storm? A halo in folk meteorology means a storms coming but yk close enough 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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