The Return of the 12/5 Snowstorm

[WxUSAF]

For any psychopaths awake at 2-5am, don’t freak out by the “donut hole” look on LWX radar. That will be due to dry air subliming our snow as @SnowenOutThere posted about. It does not mean models are over predicting precipitation, etc.

[TSSN+]

Gfs bump little north and precip is heavier 

[Imgoinhungry]

Is there a rhyme or reason that the “last minute north bump” is seemingly a thing? Seems to happen a lot. Models overdoing the high pressure to the north?


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[Paleocene]

how we lookin on the GOOFUS

[batmanbrad]

18Z RGEM about the same as previous run, maybe just a hair better but mostly noise I think

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, Paleocene said:

how we lookin on the GOOFUS

 

[Paleocene]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

 

locked in for my inch. time to sharpen the shovels!

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

 

1/2” at work in Charlestown WV at least. Pixie dust in Hanover. 

[bncho]

4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

 

more north i believe

[ravensrule]

1 minute ago, Paleocene said:

locked in for my inch. time to sharpen the shovels!

Without any medicine?. 

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

more north i believe

In my mind this is still a Traveler's Advisory event.  

[Eskimo Joe]

Gorgeous moon rise in Frederick 

[dailylurker]

I can't believe Bacon Ridge in Crownsville (160-180' elevation) is yet again looking to do better than Parrs Ridge in Carroll County (max 1000' elevation). I'll be up at 3am. I'm charging my headlamps for my 4am hike. 

Gfs nudged north. 

[paulythegun]

19 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

For any psychopaths awake at 2-5am, don’t freak out by the “donut hole” look on LWX radar. That will be due to dry air subliming our snow as @SnowenOutThere posted about. It does not mean models are over predicting precipitation, etc.

The first radar hallucinations of the year! Come at me, Ms. Pacman!

[Winter Wizard]

All we need is 0.7” at DCA and this December is snowier than the last 7 combined. Wild stuff! And I think there’s a pretty good chance of that. 

[Disc]

Snow cam is ready to go!

 

[WEATHER53]

27 minutes ago, Imgoinhungry said:

Is there a rhyme or reason that the “last minute north bump” is seemingly a thing? Seems to happen a lot. Models overdoing the high pressure to the north?


.

Yes 

[PWC Split]

Just finished a final cut of the grass at a proper 2” and got the last of the leaves up. Snow can now fall on a perfectly manicured carpet. Beautiful moon rise and a crisp 36/22 at 5:10 in Haymarket.

[WEATHER53]

17 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Gorgeous moon rise in Frederick 

We may get the rare full moon amplification out of this 

[deer]

First time checking the board this winter as I didn't wanna jinx anything. Worst case scenario it seems like NOVA gets flakes in early December, I'll take that and run!

[AtlanticWx]

we're seeing two amazing trends happen in tandem with our energy. 

1. our shortwave is trending slower/deeper than cams initially anticipated. take a look at the hrrr trend over OK with our shortwave.

2. our midwest vort that digs and raises heights is digging more than expected over nebraska and looks more consolidated. 

these two trends (can't paste gifs bc of the file limit, unfortunately) should help lift our storm more north than expected. feeling very optimistic about this one, our only fail mode is really something that's just dissipitating as we get closer. more boom than bust potential with this one imo, especially near the metro.

[Maestrobjwa]

23 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

I got 11" last year and it was the best of the 3 since we bought property here. 2 previous were basically shutouts. Sounds awesome right? Lol

I guess not, lol But you being south does give you better nina climo, wouldn't you say? You don't have to miss the southern sliders (or even the front end of Miller Bs?)

[bncho]

21z HRRR might be the first run of the HRRR such that the entire storm is within its run. And dare I say the heavier precipitation is more north than 18z.

[Interstate]

Reminds me of Jan 13th 2019... just not nearly as much.

[SnowenOutThere]

50 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

For any psychopaths awake at 2-5am, don’t freak out by the “donut hole” look on LWX radar. That will be due to dry air subliming our snow as @SnowenOutThere posted about. It does not mean models are over predicting precipitation, etc.

Are we allowed to panic if the snow falling isn’t good ratio stuff because of misaligned DGZ and lift?

[SnowenOutThere]

37 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Gorgeous moon rise in Frederick 

Mine has a halo around it which can only mean one thing…

[bncho]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

Mine has a halo around it which can only mean one thing…

the moon is a secretly a snow god and it's endorsing this storm?

[hstorm]

20 minutes ago, PWC Split said:

Just finished a final cut of the grass at a proper 2” and got the last of the leaves up. Snow can now fall on a perfectly manicured carpet. Beautiful moon rise and a crisp 36/22 at 5:10 in Haymarket.

If you cut it to 4" your snow totals would increase dramatically. 

[WxUSAF]

3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Are we allowed to panic if the snow falling isn’t good ratio stuff because of misaligned DGZ and lift?

We’re getting 20:1 in Columbia, not sure for you 

[SnowenOutThere]

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

the moon is a secretly a snow god and it's endorsing this storm?

A halo in folk meteorology means a storms coming but yk close enough