The Return of the 12/5 Snowstorm

[Chris78]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

My baby son is due tomorrow morning, so it may very well be that we'll be driving through the snow on slippery roads to get to the hospital. It won't take much snow to make the roads dicey especially with cold temperatures overnight. Fortunately it's only a 10 minute drive and we'll give ourselves extra time to get there. 

Will probably be busy over the next couple of weeks, but I'll try to pop in here if there's something else to track.

May it snow tomorrow and everyone gets at least 1"!

Awesome! Congrats

[Paleocene]

4 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

My baby son is due tomorrow morning, so it may very well be that we'll be driving through the snow on slippery roads to get to the hospital. It won't take much snow to make the roads dicey especially with cold temperatures overnight. Fortunately it's only a 10 minute drive and we'll give ourselves extra time to get there. 

Will probably be busy over the next couple of weeks, but I'll try to pop in here if there's something else to track.

May it snow tomorrow and everyone gets at least 1"!

Congrats! Best of luck!

[Scraff]

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

My baby son is due tomorrow morning, so it may very well be that we'll be driving through the snow on slippery roads to get to the hospital. It won't take much snow to make the roads dicey especially with cold temperatures overnight. Fortunately it's only a 10 minute drive and we'll give ourselves extra time to get there. 

Will probably be busy over the next couple of weeks, but I'll try to pop in here if there's something else to track.

May it snow tomorrow and everyone gets at least 1"!

Congrats! How soon until you read him the  forum for story time? 

[aldie 22]

5 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

My baby son is due tomorrow morning, so it may very well be that we'll be driving through the snow on slippery roads to get to the hospital. It won't take much snow to make the roads dicey especially with cold temperatures overnight. Fortunately it's only a 10 minute drive and we'll give ourselves extra time to get there. 

Will probably be busy over the next couple of weeks, but I'll try to pop in here if there's something else to track.

May it snow tomorrow and everyone gets at least 1"!

Congrats!! Eat his shoes they're smaller

[adelphi_sky]

23 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Short Pump again for the win.  Damn those Short Pumpers! 

They be pumpin that atmosphere. 

[adelphi_sky]

7 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

My baby son is due tomorrow morning, so it may very well be that we'll be driving through the snow on slippery roads to get to the hospital. It won't take much snow to make the roads dicey especially with cold temperatures overnight. Fortunately it's only a 10 minute drive and we'll give ourselves extra time to get there. 

Will probably be busy over the next couple of weeks, but I'll try to pop in here if there's something else to track.

May it snow tomorrow and everyone gets at least 1"!

Congrats! My son was born in the middle of the March 3rd 2014 storm! Born at the house. 

[SnowenOutThere]

7 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

My baby son is due tomorrow morning, so it may very well be that we'll be driving through the snow on slippery roads to get to the hospital. It won't take much snow to make the roads dicey especially with cold temperatures overnight. Fortunately it's only a 10 minute drive and we'll give ourselves extra time to get there. 

Will probably be busy over the next couple of weeks, but I'll try to pop in here if there's something else to track.

May it snow tomorrow and everyone gets at least 1"!

Congrats and good luck! My sister was born during the 2002-2003 winter (or the "one where it snowed a lot" as they call it) and my parents have similar stories. I'll try to be the intern filling in for your absence posting wise! 

[nw baltimore wx]

9 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

My baby son is due tomorrow morning, so it may very well be that we'll be driving through the snow on slippery roads to get to the hospital. It won't take much snow to make the roads dicey especially with cold temperatures overnight. Fortunately it's only a 10 minute drive and we'll give ourselves extra time to get there. 

Will probably be busy over the next couple of weeks, but I'll try to pop in here if there's something else to track.

May it snow tomorrow and everyone gets at least 1"!

Congratulations!!! I hope that you’re naming him Chuck.

 

[bncho]

10 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

My baby son is due tomorrow morning, so it may very well be that we'll be driving through the snow on slippery roads to get to the hospital. It won't take much snow to make the roads dicey especially with cold temperatures overnight. Fortunately it's only a 10 minute drive and we'll give ourselves extra time to get there. 

Will probably be busy over the next couple of weeks, but I'll try to pop in here if there's something else to track.

May it snow tomorrow and everyone gets at least 1"!

I hope you need a snow plow to get to the hospital 

[nw baltimore wx]

9 minutes ago, high risk said:

 I think this is a great point - social science is really going to be a factor here.    Tomorrow's decision will be made with Tuesday's decision fresh in their minds, and they'll absolutely be scared to death of another delay or closing that ends up not needed.   And it seems like a 2h delay wouldn't accomplish much tomorrow, as it will be cold and snowing 2 hours later.    It's probably either a "normal day" or "closure" decision.

Snow days are made up so if it’s risky, just close. Who cares if the school day is December 5 or June 5?

[H2O]

12 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Congratulations!!! I hope that you’re naming him Chuck.

 

I hope it’s not Crocs or Uggs

[ravensrule]

20 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

My baby son is due tomorrow morning, so it may very well be that we'll be driving through the snow on slippery roads to get to the hospital. It won't take much snow to make the roads dicey especially with cold temperatures overnight. Fortunately it's only a 10 minute drive and we'll give ourselves extra time to get there. 

Will probably be busy over the next couple of weeks, but I'll try to pop in here if there's something else to track.

May it snow tomorrow and everyone gets at least 1"!

Congratulations, such great news. Have you bought him shoes yet?. 

[yoda]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1213 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

VAZ025-036>038-050-056-050115-
/O.CON.KLWX.WW.Y.0023.251205T0600Z-251205T2100Z/
Augusta-Nelson-Albemarle-Greene-Orange-Spotsylvania-
1213 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Snow, with total accumulations of 1 to 3 inches. Localized
  totals around 4 inches are possible over the higher elevations of
  Augusta and Highland Counties.

* WHERE...Portions of central and western Virginia.

* WHEN...From 1 AM to 4 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions will impact the Friday morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Given temperatures will be in the 20s, snow
  is expected to accumulate on all untreated surfaces. A light snow
  will overspread the advisory area, with slightly higher amounts
  possible in any banding features. As snow winds down, a light
  freezing drizzle is possible into Friday evening.

[yoda]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1213 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

VAZ026-029-039-040-051-503-504-050115-
/O.EXA.KLWX.WW.Y.0023.251205T0600Z-251205T2100Z/
Rockingham-Page-Madison-Rappahannock-Culpeper-Western Highland-
Eastern Highland-
1213 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Snow, with total accumulations of 1 to 3 inches. Localized
  totals around 4 inches are possible over the higher elevations of
  Augusta and Highland Counties.

* WHERE...Portions of northern, northwest, and western Virginia.

* WHEN...From 1 AM to 4 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions will impact the Friday morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Given temperatures will be in the 20s, snow
  is expected to accumulate on all untreated surfaces. A light snow
  will overspread the advisory area, with slightly higher amounts
  possible in any banding features. As snow winds down, a light
  freezing drizzle is possible into Friday evening.

[yoda]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1213 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

MDZ016>018-VAZ055-502-527-050115-
/O.EXB.KLWX.WW.Y.0023.251205T0900Z-251205T2100Z/
Charles-St. Marys-Calvert-Stafford-Southern Fauquier-Central and
Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-
1213 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Snow, with total accumulations of 1 to 2 inches.

* WHERE...Portions of southern Maryland and northern Virginia.

* WHEN...From 4 AM to 4 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions will impact the Friday morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Given temperatures will be in the 20s, snow
  is expected to accumulate on all untreated surfaces. A light snow
  will overspread the advisory area, with slightly higher amounts
  possible in any banding features. As snow winds down, a light
  freezing drizzle is possible into Friday evening.

[bncho]

Hip, hip, hooray! 12z Euro is here to save the day!

[yoda]

12z Euro 

 

[yoda]

12z Euro-AIFS (only has 10:1 on PW... so not Kuchera)

 

 

[Jersey Andrew]

The one time I was rooting against snow. Scheduled to take 9am bus from Vienna up to NYC tomorrow morning to celebrate my birthday this weekend.

[TSSN+]

Just now, yoda said:

12z Euro 

 

Us northern tier folks just can’t win anymore. It’s either south of us or so far north it doesn’t matter. Congrats dc south crew. 

[ravensrule]

9 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Us northern tier folks just can’t win anymore. It’s either south of us or so far north it doesn’t matter. Congrats dc south crew. 

I will take my inch and LOVE it. 

[high risk]

This thread is reminding me why I love summer:  the long hours of daylight, the warm breezes, and not have to look at a stupidly-inflated Kuchera plot for 8 months.

[mdhokie]

Howard County deployed their brine trucks. Didn't even know we had county brine. They will probably still close schools too.

[WEATHER53]

29 minutes ago, yoda said:

12z Euro 

 

To me this configuration is when the high is over central PA/southern  NY State and pressing downward north to south.  In fact this set up reminds me of one Wes and me analyzed a lot 5-10 years ago where the high was more  like over central NJ with a moistening easterly flow and the main area kinda got ground to a halt, after clearing the mountains, by the high and we picked up a very uprising 4-6”!

[SnowenOutThere]

6 minutes ago, high risk said:

This thread is reminding me why I love summer:  the long hours of daylight, the warm breezes, and not have to look at a stupidly-inflated Kuchera plot for 8 months.

What ratio would you advise using instead of Kuchera for this event 

[high risk]

3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

What ratio would you advise using instead of Kuchera for this event 

         Honestly, I usually start with the 10:1 maps and make some modest mental adjustments (up or down, depending on whether temperatures are marginal or solidly cold).    The concept of Kuchera is good, but it's not as simple as a colder profile means better ratios, and I find that Kuchera runs outrageously hot in many cases when the snow falls at temperatures well below 32.

[poppyX2]

[poppyX2]

Just now, poppyX2 said:

Salem, VA  and Smith Mountain Lake looking good!

 

[Cobalt]

6 minutes ago, high risk said:

The concept of Kuchera is good, but it's not as simple as a colder profile means better ratios, and I find that Kuchera runs outrageously hot in many cases when the snow falls at temperatures well below 32.

I recall the Feb 16-17 2015 event being sold as a 6-10"+ event solely because of it was progged to have 0.3-0.5" of precip fall in a brutally cold airmass. That was around when kuchera was beginning to get attention, but come game time the snow growth was terrible and grainy, and ratios were much closer to 10:1. 

 

 

[mappy]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

My baby son is due tomorrow morning, so it may very well be that we'll be driving through the snow on slippery roads to get to the hospital. It won't take much snow to make the roads dicey especially with cold temperatures overnight. Fortunately it's only a 10 minute drive and we'll give ourselves extra time to get there. 

Will probably be busy over the next couple of weeks, but I'll try to pop in here if there's something else to track.

May it snow tomorrow and everyone gets at least 1"!

Congrats!!