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Winter 2025-26 Short Range Discussion


SchaumburgStormer
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12 hours ago, fluoronium said:

This clipper is Peoria's storm. I can feel it!

 

Not looking like it anymore. Keeps shifting south and less qpf on morning runs. At this point 2in is probably generous here. Maybe 3in if we get into good banding. Hoping Sat can pan out better cuz this one has really downtrended. 

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  • 2 weeks later...

System Jan 9-10th still in the gov model eye. My modelling method is showing potential for that time, so someone is going to get hit pretty good it's looking like at this time. I think the best I could hope for is some LES action. But we also have potential svr wx on the S side of this as well to contend with. Very Spring like system again. 

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Game Time:

THIS MAY CHANGE A BIT BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING AS A SUBTLE   SURFACE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES SOUTHEAST OUT OF IOWA AND WISCONSIN   AHEAD OF A ROBUST 700-500 MB VORT LOBE. AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE   FALLING QUICKLY INTO THE 20S DURING THIS PERIOD, AND FORECAST   SOUNDINGS INDICATE A QUICK INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE   RATES AND MOISTURE. HAVE INCREASED POPS A BIT SATURDAY EVENING,   WITH A MENTION OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PRETTY MUCH ALL   OF THE FORECAST AREA. NOT CURRENTLY TO THE LEVEL OF A   SIGNIFICANT SNOW SQUALL SET UP, BUT QUICK COATINGS WITH WIND-   WHIPPED SNOW SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE ON THE TABLE, MAINLY DURING   THE 6 PM SATURDAY TO 1 AM SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. WITH SOME FORECAST   GUIDANCE (EXTENDED RAP FOR EXAMPLE) DEVELOPING UPWARDS OF 50-75   J/KG OF NEAR-SURFACE CAPE (WHICH MIGHT BE A BIT OVERDONE), CAN'T   RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME TRUE SQUALL-LIKE ACTION IN   SPOTS, SO SOMETHING WE'LL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON.  

 

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