E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2025-26 Obs/Discussion

[The Iceman]

Looks like a parade of clippers beginning feb 3-4 but I honestly don't see a big dog until the next NAO/AO rebound(ie mid month), flow is too fast for anything serious to organize. We are either going to need another SWFE and all that entails(mixing) or deal with the 1-3/2-4" type deals the next 2 weeks. I know guidance shows a miller b threat 3-4th but I think the flow is just too fast for anything to come of it. Too many s/w's like that just screams interference for any coastals. We're better off rooting for some good clipper passes. Those can still deliver.

[Ralph Wiggum]

8 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Looks like a parade of clippers beginning feb 3-4 but I honestly don't see a big dog until the next NAO/AO rebound(ie mid month), flow is too fast for anything serious to organize. We are either going to need another SWFE and all that entails(mixing) or deal with the 1-3/2-4" type deals the next 2 weeks. I know guidance shows a miller b threat 3-4th but I think the flow is just too fast for anything to come of it. Too many s/w's like that just screams interference for any coastals. We're better off rooting for some good clipper passes. Those can still deliver.

Well said. 

[Birds~69]

6 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Looks like a parade of clippers beginning feb 3-4 but I honestly don't see a big dog until the next NAO/AO rebound(ie mid month), flow is too fast for anything serious to organize. We are either going to need another SWFE and all that entails(mixing) or deal with the 1-3/2-4" type deals the next 2 weeks. I know guidance shows a miller b threat 3-4th but I think the flow is just too fast for anything to come of it. Too many s/w's like that just screams interference for any coastals. We're better off rooting for some good clipper passes. Those can still deliver.

I can hang with that...

17F/Sunny

 

[Mikeymac5306]

15 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Looks like a parade of clippers beginning feb 3-4 but I honestly don't see a big dog until the next NAO/AO rebound(ie mid month), flow is too fast for anything serious to organize. We are either going to need another SWFE and all that entails(mixing) or deal with the 1-3/2-4" type deals the next 2 weeks. I know guidance shows a miller b threat 3-4th but I think the flow is just too fast for anything to come of it. Too many s/w's like that just screams interference for any coastals. We're better off rooting for some good clipper passes. Those can still deliver.

But what about those two monsters on the GFS 300+ hrs out?

 

[Kevin Reilly]

1 hour ago, Mikeymac5306 said:

But what about those two monsters on the GFS 300+ hrs out?

 

How are we doing with 120? Lol

[JTA66]

Ugh! I know why the storm didn't pan out. I didn't put my shovel away this week. If you recall, last week I buried it in the back of the garage and, well, we got buried.

Sorry, this one's on me!

[Birds~69]

13 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

Ugh! I know why the storm didn't pan out. I didn't put my shovel away this week. If you recall, last week I buried it in the back of the garage and, well, we got buried.

Sorry, this one's on me!

I think it's because we didn't start a personalized thread. It felt inferior, sad and betrayed....said I'm outta here and just like that off the coast she went without a parting goodbye.

19F

 

[ChescoWx]

Today was our 6th consecutive day with temperatures failing to reach the freezing mark. The longest such streak was 16 days back in 1961. The current 6 days is already tied for the 10th longest freezing stretch in the philly burbs of Chester County PA since 1894. The current NWS Forecast has us remaining below freezing for at least for the next 7 days. If we were to reach next Thursday without cracking the freezing mark that would be the 13th consecutive day moving this current 2026 period to 3rd all-time. Below are the Top 10 consecutive freezing days on record.

[LVblizzard]

4 hours ago, The Iceman said:

Looks like a parade of clippers beginning feb 3-4 but I honestly don't see a big dog until the next NAO/AO rebound(ie mid month), flow is too fast for anything serious to organize. We are either going to need another SWFE and all that entails(mixing) or deal with the 1-3/2-4" type deals the next 2 weeks. I know guidance shows a miller b threat 3-4th but I think the flow is just too fast for anything to come of it. Too many s/w's like that just screams interference for any coastals. We're better off rooting for some good clipper passes. Those can still deliver.

Next Wed-Thurs has some potential. Probably nothing big but I could see a widespread 2-4” or 3-6” event.

[Duca892]

Next week definitely keeps popping on a few things. Nice 3-5in special 

[Birds~69]

11 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

Next Wed-Thurs has some potential. Probably nothing big but I could see a widespread 2-4” or 3-6” event.

Last year that would be considered a monster storm. We were measuring events in tenths of inch...ridiculous.

19F/Predicted low -2

 

[ChescoWx]

The Delaware getting frozen over in philly this evening.

[zenmsav6810]

the nbm is a mild glancing 

[Birds~69]

8 minutes ago, zenmsav6810 said:

the nbm is a mild glancing 

I would take that in a heartbeat...

[Kevin Reilly]

4 hours ago, ChescoWx said:

Today was our 6th consecutive day with temperatures failing to reach the freezing mark. The longest such streak was 16 days back in 1961. The current 6 days is already tied for the 10th longest freezing stretch in the philly burbs of Chester County PA since 1894. The current NWS Forecast has us remaining below freezing for at least for the next 7 days. If we were to reach next Thursday without cracking the freezing mark that would be the 13th consecutive day moving this current 2026 period to 3rd all-time. Below are the Top 10 consecutive freezing days on record.

Slightly warmer tonight so far here currently 14f dew point 1f this time last night it was 8f dew point -4.  It’s all relative at this point but this is the coldest I remember going back to the later 1980s. 

[Kevin Reilly]

11 minutes ago, zenmsav6810 said:

the nbm is a mild glancing 

Gotta be broken right?

[Newman]

24 minutes ago, zenmsav6810 said:

the nbm is a mild glancing 

I was actually talking with an NWS Miami met the other day about the NBM and we expressed some disagreement in its implementation. Simply put... I don't believe it's operationally sound enough to use in such an automated way that it is in some WFOs. Case in point this map here (which by the way it's showing so much snow because it's time lagged with old data). If the NWS wants to move towards "automating" their gridded forecasts, the NBM is just not it IMO! Especially in certain unique setups like this weekend storm where the models it blends can be polarizing and opposite. It's exactly as it sounds... A national blend of models. But anytime you are faced with an 80th or 90th percentile scenario, it will only give you the 50th percentile "mean" blend of all models. It happens a lot with temperatures, for example, where local climo will beat out an NBM forecast but the NWS still uses the NBM for their grids... Maybe it's just the WFOs down here in Florida, idk. I totally understand the want and need to automate some NWS jobs, but I'm old school and wish we weren't moving in that direction.

Anyway, there's my rant and possibly unpopular opinion on the NBM today lol.

[The Iceman]

4 minutes ago, Newman said:

I was actually talking with an NWS Miami met the other day about the NBM and we expressed some disagreement in its implementation. Simply put... I don't believe it's operationally sound enough to use in such an automated way that it is in some WFOs. Case in point this map here (which by the way it's showing so much snow because it's time lagged with old data). If the NWS wants to move towards "automating" their gridded forecasts, the NBM is just not it IMO! Especially in certain unique setups like this weekend storm where the models it blends can be polarizing and opposite. It's exactly as it sounds... A national blend of models. But anytime you are faced with an 80th or 90th percentile scenario, it will only give you the 50th percentile "mean" blend of all models. It happens a lot with temperatures, for example, where local climo will beat out an NBM forecast but the NWS still uses the NBM for their grids... Maybe it's just the WFOs down here in Florida, idk. I totally understand the want and need to automate some NWS jobs, but I'm old school and wish we weren't moving in that direction.

Anyway, there's my rant and possibly unpopular opinion on the NBM today lol.

It’s seems like Mt Holly leans pretty heavily on the NBM based on the grids and afd’s, I could totally be wrong though and totally expect @MGorseto correct me if that’s the case 

[Newman]

12 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

It’s seems like Mt Holly leans pretty heavily on the NBM based on the grids and afd’s, I could totally be wrong though and totally expect @MGorseto correct me if that’s the case 

Ha, I would love to hear his thoughts. I actually have no real issue with the NBM being used as a basis for the NDFD grids. In fact, I believe that's what it's really for. I just don't like how you can tell some WFOs get lazy and just send out the NBM or MOS guidance verbatim without even trying to input real climo or meteorological expertise. Also, speaking with the NWS Miami met, the NBM is being pushed programmatically in a way that it's not mandatory yet but highly encouraged.

Let's be real here, what NWP guidance is even getting snow showers back to the I-95 corridor? I'd imagine very very few, and those that are are coming from the perturbed ensemble guidance like the GEFS, EPS, SREFs, etc. So right away I can tell you this forecast is heavily weighted by the NBM (which inputs those into it). In reality it could actually be a good forecast, if we believe the inevitable NW trend that hasn't commenced on guidance yet will occur so in that I give NWS Mount Holly plenty of kudos for not just sticking to the deterministic GFS and Euro. But also, I don't see any way it snows back to I-95 this weekend outside of a miracle personally.

[21chuck]

4 hours ago, ChescoWx said:

The Delaware getting frozen over in philly this evening.

That's Camden

[Ralph Wiggum]

0z GFS is bone cold from start to finish. I think I saw Kdyl hits 34 at one point otherwise below freezing with several 0 to sub 0 frames. Dont care if this cold is "wasted". When was the last time we had a run of cold quite like this?

[snowwors2]

29 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

0z GFS is bone cold from start to finish. I think I saw Kdyl hits 34 at one point otherwise below freezing with several 0 to sub 0 frames. Dont care if this cold is "wasted". When was the last time we had a run of cold quite like this?

❓❓❓❓❓

 

[mattinpa]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

0z GFS is bone cold from start to finish. I think I saw Kdyl hits 34 at one point otherwise below freezing with several 0 to sub 0 frames. Dont care if this cold is "wasted". When was the last time we had a run of cold quite like this?

I’ve been wondering that. I remember 1994 was cold, but not sure about the length of the cold stretches. 

[The Iceman]

2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

0z GFS is bone cold from start to finish. I think I saw Kdyl hits 34 at one point otherwise below freezing with several 0 to sub 0 frames. Dont care if this cold is "wasted". When was the last time we had a run of cold quite like this?

13-14 or 14-15? I remember both being cold winters but I don’t think either had the intensity or longevity of this winter. I mean it’s looking likely we see - monthly departures all 3 core winter months, when was the last time that happened?! 

[Kevin Reilly]

12 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

13-14 or 14-15? I remember both being cold winters but I don’t think either had the intensity or longevity of this winter. I mean it’s looking likely we see - monthly departures all 3 core winter months, when was the last time that happened?! 

Must be the sun spots or is it just cold here and no where else on the planet.  It’s a balancing act has to be well above normal somewhere have not had the time to see where.