E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2025-26 Obs/Discussion

[The Iceman]

Looks like a parade of clippers beginning feb 3-4 but I honestly don't see a big dog until the next NAO/AO rebound(ie mid month), flow is too fast for anything serious to organize. We are either going to need another SWFE and all that entails(mixing) or deal with the 1-3/2-4" type deals the next 2 weeks. I know guidance shows a miller b threat 3-4th but I think the flow is just too fast for anything to come of it. Too many s/w's like that just screams interference for any coastals. We're better off rooting for some good clipper passes. Those can still deliver.

[Ralph Wiggum]

8 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Looks like a parade of clippers beginning feb 3-4 but I honestly don't see a big dog until the next NAO/AO rebound(ie mid month), flow is too fast for anything serious to organize. We are either going to need another SWFE and all that entails(mixing) or deal with the 1-3/2-4" type deals the next 2 weeks. I know guidance shows a miller b threat 3-4th but I think the flow is just too fast for anything to come of it. Too many s/w's like that just screams interference for any coastals. We're better off rooting for some good clipper passes. Those can still deliver.

Well said. 

[Birds~69]

6 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Looks like a parade of clippers beginning feb 3-4 but I honestly don't see a big dog until the next NAO/AO rebound(ie mid month), flow is too fast for anything serious to organize. We are either going to need another SWFE and all that entails(mixing) or deal with the 1-3/2-4" type deals the next 2 weeks. I know guidance shows a miller b threat 3-4th but I think the flow is just too fast for anything to come of it. Too many s/w's like that just screams interference for any coastals. We're better off rooting for some good clipper passes. Those can still deliver.

I can hang with that...

17F/Sunny

 

[Mikeymac5306]

15 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Looks like a parade of clippers beginning feb 3-4 but I honestly don't see a big dog until the next NAO/AO rebound(ie mid month), flow is too fast for anything serious to organize. We are either going to need another SWFE and all that entails(mixing) or deal with the 1-3/2-4" type deals the next 2 weeks. I know guidance shows a miller b threat 3-4th but I think the flow is just too fast for anything to come of it. Too many s/w's like that just screams interference for any coastals. We're better off rooting for some good clipper passes. Those can still deliver.

But what about those two monsters on the GFS 300+ hrs out?

 

[Kevin Reilly]

1 hour ago, Mikeymac5306 said:

But what about those two monsters on the GFS 300+ hrs out?

 

How are we doing with 120? Lol

[JTA66]

Ugh! I know why the storm didn't pan out. I didn't put my shovel away this week. If you recall, last week I buried it in the back of the garage and, well, we got buried.

Sorry, this one's on me!

[Birds~69]

13 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

Ugh! I know why the storm didn't pan out. I didn't put my shovel away this week. If you recall, last week I buried it in the back of the garage and, well, we got buried.

Sorry, this one's on me!

I think it's because we didn't start a personalized thread. It felt inferior, sad and betrayed....said I'm outta here and just like that off the coast she went without a parting goodbye.

19F

 

[ChescoWx]

Today was our 6th consecutive day with temperatures failing to reach the freezing mark. The longest such streak was 16 days back in 1961. The current 6 days is already tied for the 10th longest freezing stretch in the philly burbs of Chester County PA since 1894. The current NWS Forecast has us remaining below freezing for at least for the next 7 days. If we were to reach next Thursday without cracking the freezing mark that would be the 13th consecutive day moving this current 2026 period to 3rd all-time. Below are the Top 10 consecutive freezing days on record.

[LVblizzard]

4 hours ago, The Iceman said:

Looks like a parade of clippers beginning feb 3-4 but I honestly don't see a big dog until the next NAO/AO rebound(ie mid month), flow is too fast for anything serious to organize. We are either going to need another SWFE and all that entails(mixing) or deal with the 1-3/2-4" type deals the next 2 weeks. I know guidance shows a miller b threat 3-4th but I think the flow is just too fast for anything to come of it. Too many s/w's like that just screams interference for any coastals. We're better off rooting for some good clipper passes. Those can still deliver.

Next Wed-Thurs has some potential. Probably nothing big but I could see a widespread 2-4” or 3-6” event.

[Duca892]

Next week definitely keeps popping on a few things. Nice 3-5in special 

[Birds~69]

11 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

Next Wed-Thurs has some potential. Probably nothing big but I could see a widespread 2-4” or 3-6” event.

Last year that would be considered a monster storm. We were measuring events in tenths of inch...ridiculous.

19F/Predicted low -2

 

[ChescoWx]

The Delaware getting frozen over in philly this evening.