E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2025-26 Obs/Discussion

[Heisy]

How is the drifting situation out there anybody need to be dug out

Took me a while this morning, my side of street is where all the snow goes. Shoveled when the snow changed to sleet, this morning when I woke up I had like 2-4” on my sidewalk of just crust I could walk across without sinking in


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[Mikeymac5306]

Lately, it's been me, or Wiggum starting the storm threads. 

My preference is to confirm the major models are all on board and the NAM is in range before a storm thread is started by me. 

Can't truly speak for Ralph but I know he is waaaaay better than I am at reading the models and knowing when a threat is legit.  

Look. we're all tired right now, but Winter is not over! Got more tracking to do!

 

[MickeyTim6533]

ICON whiffed.......not good trends

[coastal front]

Icon was not far off. Still had a bombing coastal low with coastal sections getting snow as the run ended. Chance it could have tucked more if it ran out far enough. That’s all you can ask for at this range


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[Duca892]

lmfao this really is dejavu. went back to the 19th on this thread and we were all waiting for pulls North lmfao 

[The Iceman]

Don’t forget 2 weekends ago we went from a miss se to 4-6” for most.

 

i could use a break from shoveling though. I’ve always been anti snowblower, but today has really made me rethink that stance. My neighbor blew his blower out today trying to blow this cement.

[Chadzachadam]

City was handing out fines at 10 o'clock this morning for unshoveled sidewalks but they also haven't plowed half the streets in my neighborhood 

[Duca892]

Disappointed in the 18z runs. Was hoping to see this one back. Hoping for the 0z suite to be good. Will probably be out of model to model to model watching if the 0z's are  not looking hot

[Prairie Dog]

2 hours ago, RedSky said:

How is the drifting situation out there anybody need to be dug out

down here not many drifts  However, we had to use a flat head shovel to loosen the accumulated sleet on the driveway.  I then used the snow thrower.  Otherwise the snow thrower rode along the top  Since you are Upper Bucks, maybe less sleet  Good luck

[BBasile]

57 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Don’t forget 2 weekends ago we went from a miss se to 4-6” for most.

 

i could use a break from shoveling though. I’ve always been anti snowblower, but today has really made me rethink that stance. My neighbor blew his blower out today trying to blow this cement.

Had 4 snow blowers break at work today.  The three inches of compacted sleet were not messing around.  

[coastal front]

Euro hits the coast good with a sharp cutoff at 95. Absolute bomb 970s at end of run. Regardless it’s better than 12z with an eternity to wobble this back west some more.


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[hazwoper]

2 hours ago, MickeyTim6533 said:

ICON whiffed.......not good trends

Read more.  Post less.

[RedSky]

Euro Ai backed west far enough to include southeast Pa

[coastal front]

EPS backed west a bit to with average precip amounts


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[ChescoWx]

18z Euro ensembles closer to the coast....game is far from over as we all know. 

[JTA66]

Any updates on the Euro?? 

[RedSky]

2 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

Any updates on the Euro?? 

We skip the bad stuff

[penndotguy]

Nothing scientific here but it just wants to snow this year, ya really can’t deny the trends with all the snow so far. I’m willing to bet this comes north and West we’ll be watching that damn sleet line again before ya know it Lol

[Violentweatherfan]

13 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Euro Ai backed west far enough to include southeast Pa

The more the storm deepens the further west it’ll track. The only concern i have is that huge high pressure system over Arkansas/Missouri/ Kansas 

[ChescoWx]

With yesterday's storm we are now at 34.1" of snow for the season. This is 9th most snow we have received through the end of January. We have continuous and consistently reported snow records for the below 3 stations since 1888. Average seasonal snowfall through the end of January is 16.4". The remaining average snowfall for February through April is an additional 19.3". The average seasonal snowfall is 35.7". Below are the top 10 years along with the final snow totals for the season.

[MickeyTim6533]

ICON is terrible btw

[RedSky]

6 minutes ago, MickeyTim6533 said:

ICON is terrible btw

The Germans are bad at winter stuff 

[Newman]

GFS is so close now. Our southern energy that phases with our closed off NS energy races out ahead just too much and doesn't get scooped up, so all of that PVA is too far OTS. That's what made the 6z Euro so special, the timing was nearly ideal with the trough turning negative and scooping up that southern energy/PVA and directing it straight into the Jersey shore. Let's see what the other models do here tonight.