12/2 Cold Rain and High Elevation Snow

[NorthArlington101]

2 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

12z Euro keeps bleeding the wrong way for our area.

Was debating a sick day travel up your way but hoping there will be a much better shot not too far away. Now I just gotta figure out my bike commute into the office tomorrow… sounds miserable 

[Chris78]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Was debating a sick day travel up your way but hoping there will be a much better shot not too far away. Now I just gotta figure out my bike commute into the office tomorrow… sounds miserable 

Good call. I think we'll see snow up here but it's looking less and less for each model cycle.

Catoctins above 1500 probably get 2" or 3" 

[clskinsfan]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

I think the only hope for a snowier outcome (and even then it’s mostly for the NW fringes of the forum, is for it to come in hot and heavy and the dynamic cooling and mixing of the column keeps it isothermal near 32 long enough to get the classic thump surprise. We’ve seen it happen. But it’s not something we can nail down ahead of time usually. 

latest hrrr comes in pretty hot and heavy out here. 

[WxUSAF]

I’ll grab any life preserver I can get. 12z hi-res FV3 is actually colder vs 0z and gives the Fall line and above accumulating snow.

[WVclimo]

29 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

12z Euro keeps bleeding the wrong way for our area.

Looks like 12Z continued the trend of the past several runs of more QPF for us.

Temps are dicey, especially at the surface, but it's showing quite a bit of frozen.

[Eskimo Joe]

Bottom line from the 12z long range is that we aren't losing this pattern for at least the next 7 to 10 days. We shouldn't see huge storms, but we can definitely score some snow before Christmas.