12/2 Cold Rain and High Elevation Snow

[NorthArlington101]

2 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

12z Euro keeps bleeding the wrong way for our area.

Was debating a sick day travel up your way but hoping there will be a much better shot not too far away. Now I just gotta figure out my bike commute into the office tomorrow… sounds miserable 

[Chris78]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Was debating a sick day travel up your way but hoping there will be a much better shot not too far away. Now I just gotta figure out my bike commute into the office tomorrow… sounds miserable 

Good call. I think we'll see snow up here but it's looking less and less for each model cycle.

Catoctins above 1500 probably get 2" or 3" 

[clskinsfan]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

I think the only hope for a snowier outcome (and even then it’s mostly for the NW fringes of the forum, is for it to come in hot and heavy and the dynamic cooling and mixing of the column keeps it isothermal near 32 long enough to get the classic thump surprise. We’ve seen it happen. But it’s not something we can nail down ahead of time usually. 

latest hrrr comes in pretty hot and heavy out here. 

[WxUSAF]

I’ll grab any life preserver I can get. 12z hi-res FV3 is actually colder vs 0z and gives the Fall line and above accumulating snow.

[WVclimo]

29 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

12z Euro keeps bleeding the wrong way for our area.

Looks like 12Z continued the trend of the past several runs of more QPF for us.

Temps are dicey, especially at the surface, but it's showing quite a bit of frozen.

[Ji]

HRRR still giving us hope

[clskinsfan]

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

HRRR still giving us hope

Yeah, It's a paste bomb to start. 

[WxUSAF]

24 minutes ago, Ji said:

HRRR still giving us hope

Giving MBY the finger 

[H2O]

Festive green for me. All good

[NorthArlington101]

Wouldn't be bad for a good chunk of ya'll. Wish our favored friends the best!

[87storms]

Just got a workout in and it’s definitely anti-torch outside, unlike in March when we’d easily blast into the upper 40s/low 50s. I’m becoming more bullish. My bar is an inch on all elevated surfaces.

[87storms]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

HRRR still giving us hope

Rt 15 special incoming 

[Imgoinhungry]

HRRR still giving us hope

Not sure the latest run will be what we want. Looking warmer so far.


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[Ji]

6 minutes ago, Imgoinhungry said:

Not sure the latest run will be what we want. Looking warmer so far.


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yep 1-2 degrees warmer. can we ever get a good trend?

[mappy]

52 minutes ago, 87storms said:

Just got a workout in and it’s definitely anti-torch outside, unlike in March when we’d easily blast into the upper 40s/low 50s. I’m becoming more bullish. My bar is an inch on all elevated surfaces.

Only got to 41 here

[bncho]

I don't know if it means much, but McLean busted three degrees lower than the forecast high (42 vs 45). My weenie mind is hoping we could all bust three degrees colder at the onset of precipitation.

[aldie 22]

Are we really sure that the tracking is the fun part?

[bncho]

To all the clouds: 
you shall not pass.

[Interstate]

19 minutes ago, mappy said:

Only got to 41 here

41.5 here for the high... already back to 39.6

[Interstate]

15 minutes ago, bncho said:

I don't know if it means much, but McLean busted three degrees lower than the forecast high (42 vs 45). My weenie mind is hoping we could all bust three degrees colder at the onset of precipitation.

It is not the surface that most are worried about.

[Ji]

14 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

Are we really sure that the tracking is the fun part?

this started off last week with the GFS giving us 17 inches.

[bncho]

The Mid-Atlantic would be an extraordinarily snowy climate if water froze at 36 instead of 32.

[Imgoinhungry]

this started off last week with the GFS giving us 17 inches.

The amount of digital snow we lose each year is absurd. Why does it never happen in reverse… i dont get it? Models have a 2-3 degree cold bias for mid Atlantic?


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[mappy]

Some of yall are already trying my patience and it’s only December 1st

[bncho]

4 minutes ago, Imgoinhungry said:

The amount of digital snow we lose each year is absurd. Why does it never happen in reverse… i dont get it? Models have a 2-3 degree cold bias for mid Atlantic?

maybe it's because its the GFS more than a week out

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, Imgoinhungry said:

The amount of digital snow we lose each year is absurd. Why does it never happen in reverse… i dont get it? Models have a 2-3 degree cold bias for mid Atlantic?


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This is perception bias.  It does happen in reverse.  The vast majority of our actual snowstorms were not on the guidance 174 hours out.  And very often not showing that much snow...even at 72 hours.  They trended into something in the last 48-72 hours... just like most of our "fantasy digital threats" trend away form something...because the truth is the odds of the guidance being exactly right from range is low.  Very rarely do we get a snowstorm where the guidance nailed it from really far out.  The first Feb 2010 storm...January 2016 were rare exceptions not the norm.  

And the reason it feels like we get way too many "false threats" is also perception bias.  We register every potential threat as if "the models say it's going to snow"  WHich models? Did they all?  And when...did they have a threat at day 8 then lost it by day 6...which day is the one that matters...if we count every day through the whole winter where a couple models spit out a permutation with snow...as a legit threat and expect that snow to happen...that is on us...that is a failure of our perception not guidance.  

All that said our guidance is not perfect...its flawed...and we need to continue to work to improve our ability to forecast both with models and through other means.  But you're compounding this by falling victim to typical perception biases.  

[psuhoffman]

8 minutes ago, mappy said:

Some of yall are already trying my patience and it’s only December 1st

Storm cancel

December Cancel

Winter Cancel 

[87storms]

43 minutes ago, mappy said:

Only got to 41 here

Dew point is favorable, too

[ravensrule]

1 minute ago, 87storms said:

Dew point is favorable, too

Tell me more. 

[Eskimo Joe]

47 minutes ago, mappy said:

Only got to 41 here

Congrats your wet bulb is below freezing already. I think you get an inch of snow.