Discussion OBS for minor to possibly moderate impact winter storm interior 4A Tue - midnight Tue 12/2/25, may bring first measurable snow-sleet to coastal areas including NYC

[Dark Star]

1 hour ago, RU848789 said:

Wasn't too surprised we didn't get any flakes here, but would've thought Garwood would get some...

A report of 3.5" in Kittatiny Lake NJ...

[MANDA]

Somebody stole about 4.5” of my snow.  ☹️

[ag3]

Solid rain fall of .97” on my weather station.

 

[ag3]

Precip is mostly over. Storm pulling away rapidly.

[sussexcountyobs]

Precip over. 2" total. Neighbor said there was more earlier before it rained. I saw 2" when I got home. I'm sticking with that. Just cleared driveway and walk. Everything rapidly freezing.  30.4°

3.2" for season so far. Not bad for Dec. 2nd

 

[IrishRob17]

3.1” today melted down to .45 liquid. 3.3” snowfall for the season. 

[psv88]

1.24” of rain. 38 now. Sick

[lee59]

.97 inch of rain, raw, miserable cold day.

[Dark Star]

6 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

An outside chance as the low pressure pulls away to the east that NYC and LI briefly flip to light snow before the precip ends tonight. Maybe a dusting if that.

WX/PT

If I had a nickel...

[donsutherland1]

612 
NOUS41 KOKX 022136
PNSOKX
CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-030936-

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
436 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

...SNOWFALL REPORTS...

Location                     Amount    Time/Date       Provider             

...Connecticut...

...Fairfield County...
4 NNW New Fairfield          2.5 in    0404 PM 12/02   Trained Spotter      

...New York...

...Orange County...
2 SW Middletown              3.9 in    0330 PM 12/02   Fire Dept/Rescue     
2 S Montgomery Airport       3.1 in    0301 PM 12/02   Public               
1 WNW Monroe                 2.5 in    1245 PM 12/02   Trained Spotter      
1 NNE Chester                2.3 in    0112 PM 12/02   Trained Spotter      
Pine Bush                    2.2 in    1220 PM 12/02   Public               
1 WSW Balmville              2.2 in    0130 PM 12/02   Public               
2 E Highland Mills           2.2 in    0157 PM 12/02   Public               
2 SSW Middletown             2.0 in    1209 PM 12/02   Trained Spotter      
1 NNE Chester                2.0 in    1230 PM 12/02   Trained Spotter      
2 SSW Stewart Airport        2.0 in    0144 PM 12/02   Public               
3 WNW Warwick                2.0 in    0340 PM 12/02   Public               
Chester                      1.0 in    1056 AM 12/02   Cocorahs             

...Westchester County...
Peekskill                    1.1 in    1200 PM 12/02   Public               
&&

[donsutherland1]

063 
NOUS41 KBGM 022104
PNSBGM
NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-044-047-
048-072-030904-

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
404 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

...SNOWFALL REPORTS FROM PAST 6 HOURS...

Location                     Amount    Time/Date       Provider             

...New York...

...Broome County...
1 SSE Whitney Point          6.2 in    0315 PM 12/02   NWS Employee         
Whitney Point                6.0 in    1130 AM 12/02   Public               
NWS Binghamton               5.9 in    0100 PM 12/02   Official NWS Obs     
2 SW Lisle                   5.8 in    0100 PM 12/02   Trained Spotter      
Vestal Center                3.9 in    1237 PM 12/02   Trained Spotter      
1 N Johnson City             3.6 in    1245 PM 12/02   Broadcast Media      
Vestal 3.2 E                 2.9 in    0140 PM 12/02   COCORAHS             
Kirkwood                     2.7 in    1010 AM 12/02   Public               

...Cayuga County...
1 ESE Locke                  5.6 in    1245 PM 12/02   NWS Employee         

...Chemung County...
Horseheads                   4.5 in    1227 PM 12/02   Public               
1 ESE Horseheads North       4.1 in    1150 AM 12/02   Broadcast Media      
1 S Elmira                   4.0 in    1155 AM 12/02   Trained Spotter      

...Chenango County...
Sherburne                    6.5 in    0300 PM 12/02   Public               
Greene                       6.0 in    0200 PM 12/02   Public               

...Cortland County...
Solon                        7.0 in    0150 PM 12/02   Public               
Marathon                     6.5 in    0100 PM 12/02   Trained Spotter      
1 NE Cortland                5.2 in    1205 PM 12/02   Public               

...Delaware County...
1 NE Beerston                8.5 in    0230 PM 12/02   Public               
Franklin                     7.0 in    0145 PM 12/02   Law Enforcement      
Margaretville                7.0 in    0240 PM 12/02   Public               
2 NW Peabrook                5.9 in    0325 PM 12/02   Emergency Mngr       
Delhi                        4.0 in    1045 AM 12/02   Trained Spotter      
Fishs Eddy                   4.0 in    1245 PM 12/02   Public               
East Meredith                4.0 in    0225 PM 12/02   Public               
Stamford                     4.0 in    0240 PM 12/02   Public               
Bovina Center                2.0 in    1206 PM 12/02                        

...Madison County...
Chittenango                  6.0 in    1245 PM 12/02   Public               
2 SE Chittenango             4.7 in    0227 PM 12/02   Trained Spotter      

...Oneida County...
Sauquoit                     7.0 in    0315 PM 12/02   Public               
Hinckley                     7.0 in    0315 PM 12/02   Public               
Forestport                   6.0 in    1130 AM 12/02   Public               
Marcy                        5.5 in    0100 PM 12/02   Trained Spotter      
1 SE Waterville              5.5 in    0315 PM 12/02   Public               
Whitesboro                   5.2 in    0300 PM 12/02   Public               
Knoxboro                     4.0 in    0125 PM 12/02   Trained Spotter      
Paris                        4.0 in    0133 PM 12/02   Trained Spotter      
Waterville                   4.0 in    0315 PM 12/02   Public               
3 NE Deerfield               2.6 in    1030 AM 12/02   Broadcast Media      

...Onondaga County...
Jamesville                   5.2 in    1200 PM 12/02   Trained Spotter      
Tully 0.3 NNW                5.0 in    0300 PM 12/02   COCORAHS             

...Otsego County...
Hartwick                     6.0 in    0350 PM 12/02   Public               
New Lisbon                   5.0 in    1200 PM 12/02   Public               
1 NNW Mt Vision              5.0 in    1259 PM 12/02   Public               
Emmons                       4.9 in    0327 PM 12/02   Public               

...Schuyler County...
Beaver Dams                  4.0 in    1055 AM 12/02   Public               
Tyrone                       4.0 in    0150 PM 12/02   Public               
Montour Falls                4.0 in    0353 PM 12/02   Public               
1 NW Hector                  3.2 in    1141 AM 12/02                        

...Seneca County...
1 WNW Townsendville          3.0 in    1130 AM 12/02   Public               

...Steuben County...
Cameron Mills                5.0 in    0351 PM 12/02   Public               
Painted Post 0.7 SSE         4.5 in    0100 PM 12/02   COCORAHS             
Corning                      3.8 in    1200 PM 12/02   Public               
Jasper                       3.0 in    1120 AM 12/02   Public               

...Sullivan County...
Narrowsburg                  8.0 in    0225 PM 12/02   Public               
Jeffersonville               8.0 in    0330 PM 12/02   Public               
4 E Grahamsville             6.5 in    0230 PM 12/02   Public               
Liberty                      6.0 in    0240 PM 12/02   Public               
1 E Callicoon Center         5.0 in    1046 AM 12/02   Trained Spotter      
Wurtsboro                    5.0 in    0330 PM 12/02   Public               
Woodbourne                   3.5 in    1056 AM 12/02   Public               
Jeffersonville               2.5 in    1005 AM 12/02   Public               

...Tioga County...
1 SSW Newark Valley          7.0 in    0240 PM 12/02   NWS Employee         
2 WSW Nanticoke              6.0 in    1119 AM 12/02                        
Berkshire                    6.0 in    0136 PM 12/02   Trained Spotter      
Richford                     6.0 in    0245 PM 12/02   Public               
Tioga Terrace                2.3 in    1222 PM 12/02   Trained Spotter      

...Tompkins County...
Freeville                    6.5 in    0345 PM 12/02   Public               
West Danby                   5.5 in    1200 PM 12/02   Trained Spotter      
Newfield                     5.0 in    1150 AM 12/02   Public               
Newfield                     5.0 in    0353 PM 12/02   Public               
Trumansburg                  4.3 in    0140 PM 12/02   Trained Spotter      
1 SW Forest Home             4.3 in    0320 PM 12/02   Public               
Enfield                      4.0 in    0200 PM 12/02   Public               

...Pennsylvania...

...Bradford County...
Sayre                        3.8 in    1200 PM 12/02   Trained Spotter      
Athens 1.2 N                 3.3 in    0100 PM 12/02   COCORAHS             
1 S Sayre                    3.3 in    0105 PM 12/02                        

...Lackawanna County...
2 WNW Springbrook Corner     7.0 in    0100 PM 12/02   Public               
1 NW Jessup                  5.4 in    0234 PM 12/02                        
Taylor                       4.2 in    0215 PM 12/02   Trained Spotter      
2 NNE Moosic                 4.2 in    0220 PM 12/02   Official NWS Obs     
Wallsville                   4.0 in    1200 PM 12/02   Amateur Radio        
Waverly                      4.0 in    1240 PM 12/02   Trained Spotter      
1 SSW Oakhill                4.0 in    0100 PM 12/02   Trained Spotter      
Clarks Summit                3.5 in    1100 AM 12/02   Public               

...Luzerne County...
Edwardsville                 5.3 in    1249 PM 12/02   Trained Spotter      
1 NNE Sugar Notch            5.0 in    1220 PM 12/02   Trained Spotter      
Dallas                       5.0 in    1225 PM 12/02   Public               
1 SE Albert                  4.6 in    0104 PM 12/02                        
Pittston                     4.0 in    1200 PM 12/02   Amateur Radio        

...Pike County...
1 ENE Twin Lakes             6.5 in    0320 PM 12/02   Public               
Rowland                      6.0 in    1230 PM 12/02   Amateur Radio        
4 ENE Milford                4.0 in    1246 PM 12/02   Public               

...Susquehanna County...
Brackney                     5.0 in    1200 PM 12/02   Amateur Radio        
Forest City                  4.8 in    0200 PM 12/02   Public               
Susquehanna                  4.5 in    1200 PM 12/02   Amateur Radio        
Uniondale                    4.5 in    0310 PM 12/02   Public               

...Wayne County...
2 W Damascus                 8.0 in    0345 PM 12/02   Public               
Lakewood                     5.0 in    1200 PM 12/02   Amateur Radio        
Equinunk                     5.0 in    1230 PM 12/02   Amateur Radio        
Lake Como                    5.0 in    0345 PM 12/02   Emergency Mngr       
Honesdale                    4.5 in    1200 PM 12/02   Amateur Radio        
Newfoundland                 4.0 in    1230 PM 12/02   Amateur Radio        
Greentown                    3.5 in    1200 PM 12/02   Amateur Radio        
Orson                        2.8 in    1200 PM 12/02   Amateur Radio        

...Wyoming County...
Falls                        5.0 in    0300 PM 12/02   Public               
1 ESE Mill City              4.5 in    0220 PM 12/02   Trained Spotter      
&&

[donsutherland1]

103 
NOUS41 KPHI 022025
PNSPHI
DEZ001>004-MDZ012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-060>062-070-
071-101>106-030825-

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
325 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

...SNOWFALL AND FREEZING RAIN REPORTS AS OF 3:15 PM 12/2/25...

Location                     Amount    Time/Date       Provider             

...New Jersey...

...Mercer County...
Trenton Mercer Airport        T in     0700 AM 12/02   ASOS                 

...Morris County...
1 SW Netcong                 1.6 in    1115 AM 12/02   Trained Spotter      
Green Pond                   1.0 in    1050 AM 12/02   Trained Spotter      
Lake Hopatcong               1.0 in    1045 AM 12/02   Trained Spotter      
Milton                       1.0 in    1150 AM 12/02   Trained Spotter      
1 S Butler                   0.9 in    1200 PM 12/02   Public               
2 SSW Randolph               0.2 in    0200 PM 12/02   Trained Spotter      

...Sussex County...
Kittatinny Lake              3.6 in    0100 PM 12/02   Trained Spotter      
Wantage Twp                  3.1 in    0200 PM 12/02   Trained Spotter      
Sussex                       2.5 in    0125 PM 12/02   Public               
4 WSW Wantage Twp            2.3 in    0100 PM 12/02   Trained Spotter      
1 NNE Sparta                 2.0 in    1200 PM 12/02   Emergency Mngr       
Ogdensburg                   1.8 in    0145 PM 12/02   Trained Spotter      
2 NW Vernon                  1.4 in    1250 PM 12/02   Trained Spotter      

...Warren County...
1 WSW Blairstown Twp         2.2 in    1145 AM 12/02   Trained Spotter      
Hackettstown                 0.5 in    1115 AM 12/02   Trained Spotter      
Stewartsville                0.5 in    0930 AM 12/02   Trained Spotter      

...Pennsylvania...

...Berks County...
Leesport                     1.7 in    1037 AM 12/02   Trained Spotter      
Reading Regional Airport     0.7 in    0100 PM 12/02   ASOS                 
Huffs Church                 0.6 in    0930 AM 12/02   Trained Spotter      
Morgantown                   0.3 in    0852 AM 12/02   Trained Spotter      

...Carbon County...
1 ENE Palmerton              3.7 in    1240 PM 12/02   Trained Spotter      
Jim Thorpe                   3.4 in    1155 AM 12/02   Trained Spotter      

...Chester County...
1 N East Nantmeal Twp        0.3 in    0830 AM 12/02   Trained Spotter      

...Lehigh County...
Washington Twp               4.0 in    1130 AM 12/02   Trained Spotter      
1 SE North Whitehall Twp     2.0 in    1140 AM 12/02   Trained Spotter      
1 NW Schnecksville           2.0 in    1230 PM 12/02   Cocorahs             
Wescosville                  1.4 in    0130 PM 12/02   Trained Spotter      
Lehigh Valley International  0.8 in    0100 PM 12/02   ASOS                 
Salisbury Twp                0.8 in    0915 AM 12/02   Trained Spotter      

...Monroe County...
Coolbaugh Twp                5.3 in    0230 PM 12/02   Trained Spotter      
Mount Pocono                 5.3 in    0100 PM 12/02   Trained Spotter      
Saylorsburg                  4.3 in    1200 PM 12/02   Trained Spotter      
2 SSE Lake Monroe            3.5 in    1230 PM 12/02   Public               
1 SSW Paradise Valley        3.5 in    1120 AM 12/02   Public               
Pocono Summit                3.5 in    1100 AM 12/02   Trained Spotter      
1 E Scotrun                  3.2 in    1227 PM 12/02   Trained Spotter      
1 N Arlington Heights        2.5 in    1200 PM 12/02   Trained Spotter      

...Northampton County...
1 SSE Bushkill Twp           3.1 in    1140 AM 12/02   Trained Spotter      
Bangor                       3.0 in    1200 PM 12/02   Trained Spotter      
Danielsville                 3.0 in    0222 PM 12/02   Trained Spotter      
1 E Pen Argyl                2.5 in    1200 PM 12/02   Trained Spotter      
3 E Moore Twp                2.2 in    1125 AM 12/02   Trained Spotter      
Nazareth                     2.2 in    1105 AM 12/02   Trained Spotter      
Martins Creek                1.6 in    1045 AM 12/02   CO-OP Observer       

...Philadelphia County...
Philadelphia International     T in    0700 AM 12/02   ASOS                 

...FREEZING RAIN REPORTS...

Location                     Amount    Time/Date       Provider             

...Delaware...

...New Castle County...
Wilmington                    T in     0919 AM 12/02   ASOS                 

...New Jersey...

...Somerset County...
Somerville                   0.06 in   0127 PM 12/02   ASOS                 

...Sussex County...
Sussex                        T in     0134 PM 12/02   ASOS                 

...Pennsylvania...

...Berks County...
Reading                      0.05 in   1154 AM 12/02   ASOS                 

...Bucks County...
Doylestown                   0.05 in   0914 AM 12/02   ASOS                 

...Lehigh County...
Lehigh Valley Intl Airport   0.01 in   1251 PM 12/02   ASOS                 

...Monroe County...
Mt. Pocono                   0.01 in   0133 PM 12/02   ASOS                 

...Montgomery County...
Pottstown                    0.08 in   1054 AM 12/02   ASOS                 
&&

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

1.24” of rain. 38 now. Sick

Yep, ending as raw nasty mist. 

[wdrag]

Reality check for one ensemble indicator: GEFS best and most consistent from 29/00z cycle through todays cycle on the se edge of the 24 hr positive snow depth change, and max axis snow depth change. EPS initially far too far se but slowly corrected Northwest.  Ditto CMCE.  

[psv88]

Seems like storm underperformed in New Jersey 

[NorthShoreWx]

1.38" from the ambient, but it's still raining here.

[Picard]

Currently at 32F which is my high for the day.  We definitely have a decent glaze on everything and I anticipate lots of ice in the morning on driveways and sidewalks.  Total snow was 1.5" +/- before the changeover to sleet and freezing rain.  Careful out there.  

[the_other_guy]

Backside snow.

Ultimate kick in the balls after a 38F rainy day

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

2.2 inches for the day 2.5 for the season. 

[psv88]

Haha it’s snowing now! 35

[NorthShoreWx]

A lick and a promise from the departing storm.  It's snowing. 34.7⁰

I'd play it up like some kind of cosmic irony, but I thought this would happen.

[wdrag]

Indulge me for a moment on Thread reasoning despite the fact that all snow/ice was just inland from I95 and therefore missed the bulk of our members (no mPing sleet NYC).  I say bulk of our members because I'm not sure we know how may are on here from coastal locations vs inland...I'm pretty sure its not 50  to 1.  At Go time last Friday, a thread was made with the following basics. First the WSSI-P... MINOR impact.  Yellow was the threat area and CORRECT with significant snow/ice during the morning-midday hours.  I will use WSSI P yellow or higher probs for closer in threads during the future.  We do have an ample amount of interior folk interested in winter activity. I hadn't heard anything negative from a moderator.  

So... the yellow thread area in the Friday guidance, even though a 40% threat for D5 is pretty decent for automated guidance. The numbers... plenty of beneficial rainfall for the coasts, AND the snowfall in the interior (doesn't show ice).  Now, check the GEFS Modeled 24 hour Positive snow depth change!!!!  against the the EPS same...except I could not go back to the Friday version, so I sued Saturday, but you see the EPS was HEAVIER AND WRONG. I hung may hat on what I thought was a better model. 

From my view: WSSI-P is a tool that should be used by all regarding impact.  AND, the EPS (Ecmwf) is not as advanced as I thought it was.... This leaves the door open to more future choices... and am disspoiinted in EPS performance. 

[wdrag]

And my last group of graphics:  Check out the 08z/2 HRRR and the resultant snowfall... cherry picked that HRRR but its what I used for a local FB post. Scary good science (at least at times close in). 

[MANDA]

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

Indulge me for a moment on Thread reasoning despite the fact that all snow/ice was just inland from I95 and therefore missed the bulk of our members (no mPing sleet NYC).  I say bulk of our members because I'm not sure we know how may are on here from coastal locations vs inland...I'm pretty sure its not 50  to 1.  At Go time last Friday, a thread was made with the following basics. First the WSSI-P... MINOR impact.  Yellow was the threat area and CORRECT with significant snow/ice during the morning-midday hours.  I will use WSSI P yellow or higher probs for closer in threads during the future.  We do have an ample amount of interior folk interested in winter activity. I hadn't heard anything negative from a moderator.  

So... the yellow thread area in the Friday guidance, even though a 40% threat for D5 is pretty decent for automated guidance. The numbers... plenty of beneficial rainfall for the coasts, AND the snowfall in the interior (doesn't show ice).  Now, check the GEFS Modeled 24 hour Positive snow depth change!!!!  against the the EPS same...except I could not go back to the Friday version, so I sued Saturday, but you see the EPS was HEAVIER AND WRONG. I hung may hat on what I thought was a better model. 

From my view: WSSI-P is a tool that should be used by all regarding impact.  AND, the EPS (Ecmwf) is not as advanced as I thought it was.... This leaves the door open to more future choices... and am disspoiinted in EPS performance. 

Appreciate your posts Walt.  I think you did a fine job in highlighting this event.  This never was about accumulating snow south and east of I95.

I think the event under performed from my area north and west compared to most modeling 36-48 hours out.  The 12Z Monday guidance pulled the football away and that was mostly correct for the north of 80 / west of 287 crowd.  

[wdrag]

I just hope others see the utility of WssiP