HoarfrostHubb Posted November 30, 2025 Share Posted November 30, 2025 29 minutes ago, tavwtby said: original call here of 4-6 will stand until further notice, nice compromise of GFS and Euro, think jackpot North ORH cty, looks like double digits possible. I doubt anyone gets 10”+. It’s quick moving and you would need really intense rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted November 30, 2025 Share Posted November 30, 2025 14 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Yes--SE. I'll be calling for the shuffles in my new spot. They'll happen and I'll still wind up with 1/2 of slush and I'll call it a win. You'll also be rooting for storms that hook in but stay just outside the benchmark. That's our sweet spot 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 30, 2025 Share Posted November 30, 2025 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I think you’ll really enjoy that area in the summer. I’ve actually never been to that town specifically, but anywhere along buzzards Bay there is nice. It’s really nice. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 30, 2025 Share Posted November 30, 2025 Hopefully this storm will allow me to stay up to watch the whole Pats/Giants game… 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 30, 2025 Share Posted November 30, 2025 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Hopefully this storm will allow me to stay up to watch the whole Pats/Giants game… Isn’t it mostly Tuesday afternoon/evening. Doubt there will be any cancellations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NW_of_GYX Posted November 30, 2025 Share Posted November 30, 2025 First event of the season! My take: Euro is an outlier, not buying verbatim and expect to see that tick NW over the next 24 hours. Seems like that’s been a pattern for that model over the past few seasons. NAM is doing its overamped NW thing but beware those midlevels for CNE and SNE. I have a feeling congrats dendrite with this one which is typically good for me too. Happy winter everyone! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 30, 2025 Share Posted November 30, 2025 3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Isn’t it mostly Tuesday afternoon/evening. Doubt there will be any cancellations I tend to agree with that. But hoping it speeds up a little. Although a snow day this early in the season isn’t ideal. #conflicted and superintendents might read into this part of the watch: IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday morning and evening commutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted November 30, 2025 Share Posted November 30, 2025 I was wondering where you were.Work retail as an ASM at my Dollar Tree, kinda fucked this time of year time wise Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 30, 2025 Share Posted November 30, 2025 1 hour ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: It’s definitely wrong, but its insistence on holding onto these solutions make it even worse. The eventual cave will be bad Could be wrong, could be right? No one knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted November 30, 2025 Share Posted November 30, 2025 GYX seems to be saying that the nam could be signaling a heavy meso band in the interior coastal plain 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 30, 2025 Share Posted November 30, 2025 5 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: GYX seems to be saying that the nam could be signaling a heavy meso band in the interior coastal plain Hanging your hat on the NAM 2 days out is a risky venture. Anyway--here's my p/c. Hoping the tuesday night numbers pad the day time totals a lot. Tuesday Snow, mainly after 9am. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 36. Calm wind becoming west around 5 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Tuesday Night Snow, mainly before midnight. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 22. Chance of precipitation is 80% 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted November 30, 2025 Share Posted November 30, 2025 1 minute ago, moneypitmike said: Hanging your hat on the NAM 2 days out is a risky venture. Anyway--here's my p/c. Hoping the tuesday night numbers pad the day time totals a lot. Tuesday Snow, mainly after 9am. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 36. Calm wind becoming west around 5 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Tuesday Night Snow, mainly before midnight. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 22. Chance of precipitation is 80% A rapidly intensifying coastal storm can certainly have a heavy band even if moving quickly. I’m talking 1-2”/hour 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2025 Share Posted November 30, 2025 7 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: A rapidly intensifying coastal storm can certainly have a heavy band even if moving quickly. I’m talking 1-2”/hour There will be one of those 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted November 30, 2025 Share Posted November 30, 2025 Just now, CoastalWx said: There will be one of those Yes and where it sits for a bit double digits possible. i volunteer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 30, 2025 Share Posted November 30, 2025 For those who care about such things: LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 30, 2025 Share Posted November 30, 2025 First watch of the year! We take!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted November 30, 2025 Share Posted November 30, 2025 2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: For those who care about such things: LOL .5-6” ok. Got it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2025 Share Posted November 30, 2025 3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: For those who care about such things: LOL How do you get paid to do this as a professional, and post a 2-11" range? 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2025 Share Posted November 30, 2025 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: There will be one of those Hopefully I can catch some twistser Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 30, 2025 Share Posted November 30, 2025 41 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I doubt anyone gets 10”+. It’s quick moving and you would need really intense rates. I mean some get 10” in SWFE and they move fast. This could produce 10” in the favored spots that are cold enough and get the QPF imo. Best case scenario…early dismissal Tuesday, delayed opening Wednesday morning-win win. Worst case scenario-early dismissal Tuesday(which is a win), no school Wednesday. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2025 Share Posted November 30, 2025 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: How do you get paid to do this as a professional, and post a 2-11" range? So I did see a different map posted that showed like specific amounts not those ridiculous ranges. I’m not sure what happened there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 30, 2025 Share Posted November 30, 2025 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: So I did see a different map posted that showed like specific amounts not those ridiculous ranges. I’m not sure what happened there. They've been doing this and don't know why with the ranges, I just use the point map 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 30, 2025 Share Posted November 30, 2025 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: How do you get paid to do this as a professional, and post a 2-11" range? Could it be a preliminary call? But ya that’s just such a ridiculous range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 30, 2025 Share Posted November 30, 2025 The answer probably lies somewhere in the raw data, but I’m not finding a consistent algorithm in my head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 30, 2025 Share Posted November 30, 2025 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: So I did see a different map posted that showed like specific amounts not those ridiculous ranges. I’m not sure what happened there. They're both (GYX/BOX) from their probablistics. They provide two identified as "Expected: Official NWS Forecast". One provides a number, the other a range. The range version should not be confused with their 10% and 90% probability amounts. Those are diffferent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 30, 2025 Share Posted November 30, 2025 They blend something like 80% bottom percentile and 20% top percentile. It’s ass 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 30, 2025 Share Posted November 30, 2025 OK I think the range may be taking the 25th and 75th percentile on amounts. You can eyeball what that would be in the percentile columns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted November 30, 2025 Share Posted November 30, 2025 Well now that we’ve figured that out…let’s see the Nam push the upper range highrr 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 30, 2025 Share Posted November 30, 2025 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: OK I think the range may be taking the 25th and 75th percentile on amounts. You can eyeball what that would be in the percentile columns. Regardless of their methodology, I think they would serve themselves (and their crediblity) well by not naming it "Official NWS Forecast". It reminds me of one of my old work friends who would weight all his sales opportunities as 50% saying "either they will or they won't". 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 30, 2025 Share Posted November 30, 2025 Just now, moneypitmike said: Regardless of their methodology, I think they would serve themselves well by not naming it "Official NWS Forecast". Well it does say experimental. It’s a forecast based on probability and confidence and the confidence just isn’t there right now. But yeah, I’m not sure how helpful 1-12” is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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