First Winter Storm to kickoff 2025-26 Winter season

[HoarfrostHubb]

29 minutes ago, tavwtby said:

original call here of 4-6 will stand until further notice, nice compromise of GFS and Euro, think jackpot North ORH cty, looks like double digits possible.

I doubt anyone gets 10”+.   It’s quick moving and you would need really intense rates. 

[SouthCoastMA]

14 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Yes--SE.  

I'll be calling for the shuffles in my new spot.  They'll happen and I'll still wind up with 1/2 of slush and I'll call it a win.

You'll also be rooting for storms that hook in but stay just outside the benchmark. That's our sweet spot

[HoarfrostHubb]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think you’ll really enjoy that area in the summer. I’ve actually never been to that town specifically, but anywhere along buzzards Bay there is nice.

It’s really nice. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Hopefully this storm will allow me to stay up to watch the whole Pats/Giants game…

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Hopefully this storm will allow me to stay up to watch the whole Pats/Giants game…

Isn’t it mostly Tuesday afternoon/evening. Doubt there will be any cancellations 

[NW_of_GYX]

First event of the season! My take: Euro is an outlier, not buying verbatim and expect to see that tick NW over the next 24 hours. Seems like that’s been a pattern for that model over the past few seasons. NAM is doing its overamped NW thing but beware those midlevels for CNE and SNE. I have a feeling congrats dendrite with this one which is typically good for me too. Happy winter everyone! 

[HoarfrostHubb]

3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Isn’t it mostly Tuesday afternoon/evening. Doubt there will be any cancellations 

I tend to agree with that.   But hoping it speeds up a little.    Although a snow day this early in the season isn’t ideal.    #conflicted

 

and superintendents might read into this part of the watch:

IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions
  could impact the Tuesday morning and evening commutes.

 

[Prismshine Productions]

I was wondering where you were.

Work retail as an ASM at my Dollar Tree, kinda fucked this time of year time wise

Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

[H2Otown_WX]

1 hour ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

It’s definitely wrong, but its insistence on holding onto these solutions make it even worse. The eventual cave will be bad 

Could be wrong, could be right? No one knows?

 

[mahk_webstah]

GYX seems to be saying that the nam could be signaling a heavy meso band in the interior coastal plain 

[moneypitmike]

5 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

GYX seems to be saying that the nam could be signaling a heavy meso band in the interior coastal plain 

Hanging your hat on the NAM 2 days out is a risky venture.

 

Anyway--here's my p/c.  Hoping the tuesday night numbers pad the day time totals a lot.

Tuesday

Snow, mainly after 9am. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 36. Calm wind becoming west around 5 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

 

Tuesday Night

Snow, mainly before midnight. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 22. Chance of precipitation is 80%

[mahk_webstah]

1 minute ago, moneypitmike said:

Hanging your hat on the NAM 2 days out is a risky venture.

 

Anyway--here's my p/c.  Hoping the tuesday night numbers pad the day time totals a lot.

Tuesday

Snow, mainly after 9am. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 36. Calm wind becoming west around 5 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

 

Tuesday Night

Snow, mainly before midnight. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 22. Chance of precipitation is 80%

A rapidly intensifying coastal storm can certainly have a heavy band even if moving quickly.  I’m talking 1-2”/hour

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

A rapidly intensifying coastal storm can certainly have a heavy band even if moving quickly.  I’m talking 1-2”/hour

There will be one of those 

[mahk_webstah]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

There will be one of those 

Yes and where it sits for a bit double digits possible.

i volunteer 

[moneypitmike]

For those who care about such things:  LOL

 

[ineedsnow]

First watch of the year! We take!!

[Kitz Craver]

2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

For those who care about such things:  LOL

 

.5-6” ok. Got it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

For those who care about such things:  LOL

 

How do you get paid to do this as a professional, and post a 2-11" range?

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

There will be one of those 

Hopefully I can catch some twistser

[WinterWolf]

41 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I doubt anyone gets 10”+.   It’s quick moving and you would need really intense rates. 

I mean some get 10” in SWFE and they move fast.  This could produce 10” in the favored spots that are cold enough and get the QPF imo. 
 

Best case scenario…early dismissal Tuesday, delayed opening Wednesday morning-win win.  Worst case scenario-early dismissal Tuesday(which is a win), no school Wednesday. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

How do you get paid to do this as a professional, and post a 2-11" range?

So I did see a different map posted that showed like specific amounts not those ridiculous ranges. I’m not sure what happened there.

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

So I did see a different map posted that showed like specific amounts not those ridiculous ranges. I’m not sure what happened there.

They've been doing this and don't know why with the ranges, I just use the point map

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

How do you get paid to do this as a professional, and post a 2-11" range?

Could it be a preliminary call? But ya that’s just such a ridiculous range. 

[dendrite]

The answer probably lies somewhere in the raw data, but I’m not finding a consistent algorithm in my head.

[moneypitmike]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

So I did see a different map posted that showed like specific amounts not those ridiculous ranges. I’m not sure what happened there.

They're both (GYX/BOX) from their probablistics.  They provide two identified as "Expected:  Official NWS Forecast".  One provides a number, the other a range.

The range version should not be confused with their 10% and 90% probability amounts.  Those are diffferent.

[Damage In Tolland]

They blend something like 80% bottom percentile and 20% top percentile. It’s ass 

[dendrite]

OK I think the range may be taking the 25th and 75th percentile on amounts. You can eyeball what that would be in the percentile columns.

[mahk_webstah]

Well now that we’ve figured that out…let’s see the Nam push the upper range highrr

[moneypitmike]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

OK I think the range may be taking the 25th and 75th percentile on amounts. You can eyeball what that would be in the percentile columns.

Regardless of their methodology, I think they would serve themselves (and their crediblity) well by not naming it "Official NWS Forecast".  

It reminds me of one of my old work friends who would weight all his sales opportunities as 50% saying "either they will or they won't".  

[dendrite]

Just now, moneypitmike said:

Regardless of their methodology, I think they would serve themselves well by not naming it "Official NWS Forecast".  

Well it does say experimental. It’s a forecast based on probability and confidence and the confidence just isn’t there right now. But yeah, I’m not sure how helpful 1-12” is.