First Winter Storm to kickoff 2025-26 Winter season

[Damage In Tolland]

8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

It will be and for the rest of the winter no matter what people will ride it.

If it is it’s in the 50’s about to ORH and most of SNE is skunked 

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, gonegalt said:

I never use show biz as evidence of anything.

 

Um not  show biz bro maybe look it up.

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

If it is it’s in the 50’s about to ORH and most of SNE is skunked 

You saw 0z already? 

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, radarman said:

Has the AI Euro scored a coup yet?  I was really interested and watched it closely last year, not just here but across the CONUS, and my anecdotal take was that it sucked for east coast cyclogenesis and atmospheric rivers out west.  But maybe I missed something.

The only event I think it did well in was the storm that looped around off SC this summer. It schooled NHC.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

You saw 0z already? 

18z was brutal 

[powderfreak]

13 minutes ago, radarman said:

I don't think this is inherently true... more runs should provide smaller moves per run if the model is stable and the assimilation is consistent.  

True, good point. 

[WxWatcher007]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The only event I think it did well in was the storm that looped around off SC this summer. It schooled NHC.

Yeah I think the Euro AI was just ok this season. Google DeepMind lapped everyone. A big season for that model. 

[weatherwiz]

ughh something wonky must be going on with bufkit profiles from PSU. keep forgetting to make a backup bufget list from iowa state. 

[WinterWolf]

Don’t care what anybody says…The Euro ain’t even close to what it once was…you  could have run that thing 8 times a day 7-8 years ago…and it would smoke every model 90 plus % of the time.  Yes the GFS sucked then as it does now…the difference now is, the Euro is just another model, so it makes the GFS look better Lmao.  There ya go.

 

Let’s see what 0z brings. I’m fine with 2-4”..not greedy, and a great start. 

[nianticct]

72 years old ! Georgetown 1971 freshman ! Smoking dope was smoking lousy bags of weed for 25 dollars an ounce! Then going to bars ( tombs,winstons, chadwicks, third edition, cellar door and more! Late night snack at little tavern burgers,AKA Tomaine Tavern!

 

 

 

 

 

[kdxken]

9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

ughh something wonky must be going on with bufkit profiles from PSU. keep forgetting to make a backup bufget list from iowa state. 

Eff the bufkit. Watch the game. Saturday, Saturday, Saturday night's all right. 

 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, kdxken said:

Eff the bufkit. Watch the game. Saturday, Saturday, Saturday night's all right. 

 

doing both  

[CoastalWx]

16 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah I think the Euro AI was just ok this season. Google DeepMind lapped everyone. A big season for that model. 

Wish they had that model running for something other than tropicals.

[weatherwiz]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Wish they had that model running for something other than tropicals.

Isn't Google DeepMind the one which has had extremely encouraging results, however, also described as "the model is able to produce great results, however, the model has no clue how it derived the results". There was some article or paper on this a year or two ago. 

[Torch Tiger]

16 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Don’t care what anybody says... I’m fine with 2-4”..not greedy, and a great start. 

if not? 

 

[weatherwiz]

Can't wait to see how amped the NAM turns out to be based on the look so far. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Can't wait to see how amped the NAM turns out to be based on the look so far. 

Coming in ever so slightly flatter so far.

[CoastalWx]

Nam still Super amped.

[CoastalWx]

Goes over BOS to Cape Ann. Congrats PF.

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Coming in ever so slightly flatter so far.

Kevin gets dry slotted  though most of QPF probably done 

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Nam still Super amped.

guessing its probably 18z tomorrow when NAM starts to tame down.

[CoastalWx]

NAM bombs so much it as a bit of a reach around ending.

[Baroclinic Zone]

4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Coming in ever so slightly flatter so far.

Started flatter but ended up about the same

[78Blizzard]

Well, this storm will give us a heads up on which model(s) to give a modicum of trust, if any, as we go into the winter season.

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

Not sure I believe you, NAM.

[Torch Tiger]

Lfg

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

NAM is pretty much snowless for SNE lol

[UnitedWx]

1 hour ago, gonegalt said:

I never use show biz as evidence of anything.

 

Me either, but growing up in the 80s, weed wasn't what we called dope...

[UnitedWx]

13 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Well, this storm will give us a heads up on which model(s) to give a modicum of trust, if any, as we go into the winter season.

Possibly, as long as you're not talking about the NAM this far out. It's not useful yet

[radarman]

12 hours ago, radarman said:

Not shocked.  Question is if this the furthest run NW we see or if it just keeps ticking warmer.

 

12 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I think we have a pretty good idea 

Done now?  Still not sure