First Winter Storm to kickoff 2025-26 Winter season

[40/70 Benchmark]

I would be fine with an advisory event.

[Snowcrazed71]

19 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

We love 'em but he's lost. John Travolta levels of confusion. This is a light to mod event in his hood. 

Yeah..... I know he loves it as much as we do though. I'm thinking an advisory level is probably the likely outcome for us 84 And north. 

[eduggs]

There's more going on than whether it's amped or flat. There's the location and amplitude of the shortwave, location of vorticity advection, the tilt of the trof, and its evolution over time.
 

Some runs over the past few days have been "amped" with a sharp shortwave and associated vortmax taking a northerly route near the Great Lakes into NYS (e.g., 0z 28th GFS) and others have been "ampled" but with the shortwave taking a more southerly track from AR through KY to VA (e.g., 06z 27th ECM). Other runs have been a little flat initially but amped up late (e.g., 0z 29th ECM) or initially amped only to quickly flatten (various CMC and UK runs). This combination of variables has led to a spectrum of outcomes that defy a simple binary description.

[Snowcrazed71]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would be fine with an advisory event.

Especially at this juncture. It's still early for our Hood. So an advisory event now is perfectly okay with me. Looks like we have another shot of something next Saturday as well

[ORH_wxman]

22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

EPS mean definitely juicier than op

Yeah it has 6”+ here. I’m still pretty pessimistic for warning snows but maybe advisory has a decent chance. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

DT's First Call map looks like mine. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Euro used to instill some confidence. It’s the only model getting anything appreciable here. I’m guessing it’s going to cave at some point.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

8 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Euro used to instill some confidence. It’s the only model getting anything appreciable here. I’m guessing it’s going to cave at some point.

It’s had some problems the past few years, but Euro is not as bad as people make it out to be.

[Ginx snewx]

37 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it has 6”+ here. I’m still pretty pessimistic for warning snows but maybe advisory has a decent chance. 

One thing about the EPS mean that's a great sign going forward are the clown maps . When big numbers come up on the mean it means ENS are on to something big occurring in the next 15. Machine numbers this high uniformly in the means is a rare occurrence and I would say 90% of the time a biggie is on the horizon.  Now about Tuesday.  EPS look like gold here.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

One thing about the EPS mean that's a great sign going forward are the clown maps . When big numbers come up on the mean it means ENS are on to something big occurring in the next 15. Machine numbers this high uniformly in the means is a rare occurrence and I would say 90% of the time a biggie is on the horizon.  Now about Tuesday.  EPS look like gold here.

I want to believe the euro is on to something. It’s been pretty steadfast. Would go a long way to improving spirits here. 
 

most other models confine the snow well NW

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I want to believe the euro is on to something. It’s been pretty steadfast. Would go a long way to improving spirits here. 
 

most other models confine the snow well NW

Only thing that has varied, and it huge, is the intensity and mid levels.At any rate even a 2 inch cover here would be a great start.  Tomorrow's system was at day 5 was  a possible snowstorm but alas its dumping at Ohio State Michigan game. We cut we bleed

[Sey-Mour Snow]

12 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

One thing about the EPS mean that's a great sign going forward are the clown maps . When big numbers come up on the mean

Ya don’t recall seeing the ensemble means this snowy on all ensembles in early to mid December. Multiple threats to track, Howell we can cash in on 1 or 2. 

[WxWatcher007]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Ya don’t recall seeing the ensemble means this snowy on all ensembles in early to mid December. Multiple threats to track, Howell we can cash in on 1 or 2. 

For early December this is great, but I recall some epic means last season that produced nothing.

Not sure if I’ll do a map today but I’m currently thinking C-2 coast including most of New London County and 2-5 elsewhere. 

[Damage In Tolland]

54 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

DT's First Call map looks like mine. 

He definitely copied yours 

[eduggs]

5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Only thing that has varied, and it huge, is the intensity and mid levels.At any rate even a 2 inch cover here would be a great start.  Tomorrow's system was at day 5 was  a possible snowstorm but alas its dumping at Ohio State Michigan game. We cut we bleed

5 days ago there was barely the hint of a ripple of a shortwave across the central US... And a big trof along the west coast.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

15 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

For early December this is great, but I recall some epic means last season that produced nothing.

Not sure if I’ll do a map today but I’m currently thinking C-2 coast including most of New London County and 2-5 elsewhere. 

 No doubt about last year underperforming we ended up getting like 5-10” in 2 week from the 18-24” mean that we had.  But this does mean that the threats are there. 
 

Im leaning white rain to rain up to I-84 / coating to 2” 84 corridor / 2-5” highest hills NW for now. 

[Ginx snewx]

15 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

For early December this is great, but I recall some epic means last season that produced nothing.

Not sure if I’ll do a map today but I’m currently thinking C-2 coast including most of New London County and 2-5 elsewhere. 

Will the new AI influence those low snow casts?

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Will the new AI influence those low snow casts?

 

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

 No doubt about last year underperforming we ended up getting like 5-10” in 2 week from the 18-24” mean that we had.  But this does mean that the threats are there. 
 

Im leaning white rain to rain up to I-84 / coating to 2” 84 corridor / 2-5” highest hills NW for now. 

Tough to fight EPS AI GEFS AI EPS but you can always go higher as solutions appear.

[ineedsnow]

Tuesday

Snow, mainly after 10am. High near 32. Calm wind becoming southeast around 6 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

Tuesday Night

Snow likely, mainly before 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 19. North wind 6 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

[WxWatcher007]

7 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

 No doubt about last year underperforming we ended up getting like 5-10” in 2 week from the 18-24” mean that we had.  But this does mean that the threats are there. 
 

Im leaning white rain to rain up to I-84 / coating to 2” 84 corridor / 2-5” highest hills NW for now. 

Totally agree with the threats. That’s all we can ask for, and last year while it sticks in our memory has no real bearing on what’ll happen this season. 

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

 

Tough to fight EPS AI GEFS AI EPS but you can always go higher as solutions appear.

I’m cautious on snow amounts to begin with in my first calls but I still think it’s a light to moderate event for most of CT. Either way, we quickly turn the page to the Arctic hounds Friday and a possible system next weekend. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

23 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

He definitely copied yours 

The whole thing has gone to crap.

[bristolri_wx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The whole thing has gone to crap.

Not going great, but a little early to give up on it.  I would at least wait until Monday morning.  Unless you are referring to something else...

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, bristolri_wx said:

Not going great, but a little early to give up on it.  I would at least wait until Monday morning.  Unless you are referring to something else...

I'm just mocking Kevin's inane outbursrs.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

9 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Tuesday

Snow, mainly after 10am. High near 32. Calm wind becoming southeast around 6 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

Tuesday Night

Snow likely, mainly before 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 19. North wind 6 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

The trend, you and I need to be wary of, is if we see East and weaker model depictions moving forward. That’s a possibility that is definitely still in play. 
 

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The whole thing has gone to crap.

What are you looking for? Foot plus? Wait a week when we have pure Arctic Air antecedent days . There's your high end. This is a 6 to 8 for the best 

[bristolri_wx]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm just mocking Kevin's inane outbursrs.

Outbursts are so common on a snow storm thread it's hard to see the sarcasm through the snow...

[Damage In Tolland]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The whole thing has gone to crap.

Dick Tolleris in agreement on a 7 yr, $500 deal with EMA Wx. $250 signing bonus and if gets all forecasts right.. $300 bonus.

[CoastalWx]

I just can’t with those clown maps.

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I just can’t with those clown maps.

They are gonna be really bad near the isothermal mix line. But I think they will be fine over the interior and comfortably north of the 0C 925-850 zone. 

[Damage In Tolland]

18 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/11/seasons-first-winter-storm-likely.html

FIRST CALL: