First Winter Storm to kickoff 2025-26 Winter season

[40/70 Benchmark]

I would be fine with an advisory event.

[Snowcrazed71]

19 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

We love 'em but he's lost. John Travolta levels of confusion. This is a light to mod event in his hood. 

Yeah..... I know he loves it as much as we do though. I'm thinking an advisory level is probably the likely outcome for us 84 And north. 

[eduggs]

There's more going on than whether it's amped or flat. There's the location and amplitude of the shortwave, location of vorticity advection, the tilt of the trof, and its evolution over time.
 

Some runs over the past few days have been "amped" with a sharp shortwave and associated vortmax taking a northerly route near the Great Lakes into NYS (e.g., 0z 28th GFS) and others have been "ampled" but with the shortwave taking a more southerly track from AR through KY to VA (e.g., 06z 27th ECM). Other runs have been a little flat initially but amped up late (e.g., 0z 29th ECM) or initially amped only to quickly flatten (various CMC and UK runs). This combination of variables has led to a spectrum of outcomes that defy a simple binary description.

[Snowcrazed71]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would be fine with an advisory event.

Especially at this juncture. It's still early for our Hood. So an advisory event now is perfectly okay with me. Looks like we have another shot of something next Saturday as well

[ORH_wxman]

22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

EPS mean definitely juicier than op

Yeah it has 6”+ here. I’m still pretty pessimistic for warning snows but maybe advisory has a decent chance. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

DT's First Call map looks like mine. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Euro used to instill some confidence. It’s the only model getting anything appreciable here. I’m guessing it’s going to cave at some point.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

8 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Euro used to instill some confidence. It’s the only model getting anything appreciable here. I’m guessing it’s going to cave at some point.

It’s had some problems the past few years, but Euro is not as bad as people make it out to be.

[Ginx snewx]

37 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it has 6”+ here. I’m still pretty pessimistic for warning snows but maybe advisory has a decent chance. 

One thing about the EPS mean that's a great sign going forward are the clown maps . When big numbers come up on the mean it means ENS are on to something big occurring in the next 15. Machine numbers this high uniformly in the means is a rare occurrence and I would say 90% of the time a biggie is on the horizon.  Now about Tuesday.  EPS look like gold here.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

One thing about the EPS mean that's a great sign going forward are the clown maps . When big numbers come up on the mean it means ENS are on to something big occurring in the next 15. Machine numbers this high uniformly in the means is a rare occurrence and I would say 90% of the time a biggie is on the horizon.  Now about Tuesday.  EPS look like gold here.

I want to believe the euro is on to something. It’s been pretty steadfast. Would go a long way to improving spirits here. 
 

most other models confine the snow well NW