First Winter Storm to kickoff 2025-26 Winter season

[40/70 Benchmark]

Oddly enough, I think the GEM is most realistic, IMO.

[George001]

Euro is a nuke

[ORH_wxman]

That euro run is crazy. Still think compromise between euro and GFS is the most likely. 

[WxWatcher007]

Absolute crush job in much of SNE. Dicey at the coast of course. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

35 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That euro run is crazy. Still think compromise between euro and GFS is the most likely. 

Similar to 06z, but a bit tamer.

[40/70 Benchmark]

41 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That euro run is crazy. Still think compromise between euro and GFS is the most likely. 

Yea, GFS has the crazy gradient over KASH, EURO over Attleboro...place it over rt 128 with a parcel and a pear tree.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Best EPS yet.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Looks like it copied me.

[ORH_wxman]

18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Best EPS yet.

Hard to hate that look

[WinterWolf]

Funny thing…as soon as we say the pattern isn’t ripe for bombs, the Euro goes oh ya, take that gentlemen…and then follows it up with a gorgeous EPS.  Ironic..yet beautiful too. 

[WxWatcher007]

15 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Funny thing…as soon as we say the pattern isn’t ripe for bombs, the Euro goes oh ya, take that gentlemen…and then follows it up with a gorgeous EPS.  Ironic..yet beautiful too. 

Inside 100h too. This is the time it needs to hold up.

Numerous shortwaves and excellent cold in the region up to mid-December. Let’s get on the board first of course, but we might be in business throughout New England. Not an ideal pattern, but good enough. 
 

[40/70 Benchmark]

55 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Funny thing…as soon as we say the pattern isn’t ripe for bombs, the Euro goes oh ya, take that gentlemen…and then follows it up with a gorgeous EPS.  Ironic..yet beautiful too. 

I don't think it is..let's see what verifies. It's not zero chance, though....any time you get a weak PV the guard has to be...which is why I said slight chance of a KU between Dec 1 and 15, but I think the better window is late season.

[moneypitmike]

Congrats north of the Pike/Rte 2.

While I don't expect the ICON wet dream, I'm hoping  whatever plays out manages to throw a heavy amount into coastal maine.  I think a GFS/EC compromise will do it.

[moneypitmike]

All eyes turn to tomorrow's 12z.......


A look at ensemblesshows somewhat better agreement with loose clustering of low centers 
tracking near 40N/70W Tuesday evening. The lack of
upstream blocking will lead to the surface low progressing ENE
south of Nova Scotia by early Wednesday morning. This track will
favor mostly snow with DESI showing probabilities of greater
than 3 inches along and south of the foothills around 50-60
percent. The parent trough to this system is currently in the
Gulf of Alaska and will move onshore within better sampling of
RAOBs some time late tonight into Sunday. This will bear
watching over the coming days as the more amplified solutions
will bring the potential for near Warning level snowfall if they
were to verify.

[MJO812]

3 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Inside 100h too. This is the time it needs to hold up.

Numerous shortwaves and excellent cold in the region up to mid-December. Let’s get on the board first of course, but we might be in business throughout New England. Not an ideal pattern, but good enough. 
 

Watching 2 threats

Next weekend and possibly mid month 

[MJO812]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, GFS has the crazy gradient over KASH, EURO over Attleboro...place it over rt 128 with a parcel and a pear tree.

AI Euro is still consistent with a flatter track. Drunk ?

[SnoSki14]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Watching 2 threats

Next weekend and possibly mid month 

For SNE and north sure, not down here. 

[MJO812]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

For SNE and north sure, not down here. 

Okay whatever you say

[MJO812]

6z euro

[dendrite]

That’s cute but you forgot the 6z gfs

[dendrite]

6z eps way SE too. AI ens are still good for the interior. What a mess. 

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

6z eps way SE too. AI ens are still good for the interior. What a mess. 

Yeah 6z euro is meager. 6z gfs is congrats you.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, moneypitmike said:

Congrats north of the Pike/Rte 2.

While I don't expect the ICON wet dream, I'm hoping  whatever plays out manages to throw a heavy amount into coastal maine.  I think a GFS/EC compromise will do it.

Beer?

[Baroclinic Zone]

Overall trend I have seen is lowering/flattening of heights over the northeast.

Vorticity itself looks to be more consolidated and has dug further south.

Nice look on the overnight for interior SNE and up into CNE.