Winter 2025-26 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Powerball]

On 12/24/2025 at 9:01 AM, Frog Town said:

Watches likely to be issued for southern mi this afternoon.  Even though it's for ice, still makes it feel more festive with a potential winter-type storm looming.  Better than what it looked like a week ago when they were talking about mid 60's.  

 

Definitely happy this event busted for y'all...

[Stevo6899]

13 minutes ago, Powerball said:

 

Definitely happy this event busted for y'all...

Nothing more depressing than 32 and pouring cold rain.

[RogueWaves]

1 minute ago, Stevo6899 said:

Nothing more depressing than 32 and pouring cold rain.

Scenic icy up here with snow still plus icicles on every tree limb. Downstate prolly fits your description well. Supposed to remain below freezing until Sunday so we could keep this look for a day or so.

[Powerball]

45 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

Nothing more depressing than 32 and pouring cold rain.

 

As depressing as that might be, it still beats a crippling ice storm...

[Chicago Storm]

 
As depressing as that might be, it still beats a crippling ice storm...

send the crippling ice storm this way.

[IWXwx]

Looks like an overperforming clipper to start the new year will be the best we can do for awhile.

[A-L-E-K]

Duster watch 2026

[roardog]

11 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

Duster watch 2026

It could be your favorite weather next week. Very cold and dry. 

[OrdIowPitMsp]

Sunday afternoon/night has piqued my interest. Looks like a nice 3-5” event here to refresh the dirty old melting snowpack as strong winds usher in arctic air.

[sbnwx85]

Although most of us won’t see much snow from this (although the UP is going to get hammered), Skilling points out Sunday’s system will undergo bombogensis. So… that’s something?

[RogueWaves]

12 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said:

Although most of us won’t see much snow from this (although the UP is going to get hammered), Skilling points out Sunday’s system will undergo bombogensis. So… that’s something?

20mb in 12 hrs per today's runs. I'm voting for the more SE track vs the ones that nuke Yooperland. Bout time the SE trend works in favor for once. 

[OrdIowPitMsp]

It’s towards the outside of its range but the 0z NAM throws down 6-8” at MSP. 
 

[sbnwx85]

Just read the GRR forecast disco and it has my attention. Hoping we can get that lake effect into Indiana to have some major impacts locally.

As for the snow, synoptic scale rain will switch to lake effect
snow Sunday night into Monday. Lake effect snow will continue
from Monday into Tuesday with accumulations expected. The snow
will be spread across all of Lower Michigan given the strength of
the wind. As colder air pours in on Monday and the snow becomes
drier and more powdery visibility concerns will develop. Winter
headlines will obviously be forth coming with later shifts as
Monday approaches. All headlines will be on the table given the
strength of the wind, which when combined with accumulating lake
effect snow will make for major travel concerns.

[Frog Town]

Finally starting to get a mean trough position that is favorable for storms that are not just NW flow dusters and cold.  Still a couple weeks out but a good sign for us in the lakes points west..  Changes appear to already be taKING place in the pacific.  

[Baum]

57 minutes ago, Frog Town said:

Finally starting to get a mean trough position that is favorable for storms that are not just NW flow dusters and cold.  Still a couple weeks out but a good sign for us in the lakes points west..  Changes appear to already be taKING place in the pacific.  

Never concerned.

[michsnowfreak]

Weeklies continue to have average to below avg temps all of January.

[Cary67]

Getting that EC vibe

[RogueWaves]

5 hours ago, Baum said:

Never concerned.

Because you've already gotten a big storm. DTW/TOL haven't.

[Baum]

3 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

Because you've already gotten a big storm. DTW/TOL haven't.

True. And I don’t care. 

[DocATL]

Nothing says Chicagoland winter better than wintery temps without wintery precipitation. Early December was a fun time but now we’re at real winter.

[Cary67]

Now vs late Nov. 

[michsnowfreak]

On 12/27/2025 at 6:29 PM, RogueWaves said:

Because you've already gotten a big storm. DTW/TOL haven't.

 

22 hours ago, Baum said:

True. And I don’t care. 

Lol hey! 

Seriously though, no one should care about anyone's backyard but their own. I was actually a bit surprised how quickly Chicago lost their snow, as evidenced by the mid-december appearance of beavis. Despite season to date being 17.4" at ORD & 12.9" at DTW....ORD has only had 15 days with 1"+ snowcover vs 20 days at DTW.

These type of winters typically give a big storm or two to DTW, so we will see what the season brings.

[michsnowfreak]

Weeklies continue to show cold in the Great Lakes the entire run. The widespread cold signal for Jan 19-26 is very stark for so far out.

[hawkeye_wx]

Models continue to be very boring and dry through mid January for much of the middle of the country.

[A-L-E-K]

Zzzzz

[Brian D]

ZZZZ until....POP! better than POP then fizzle.

[DocATL]

Profoundly dull weather pattern


.

[Chicago Storm]

Profoundly dull weather pattern


.

idk…

1-3” area wide this evening, another D-2” tomorrow.

[sbnwx85]

GFS showing a more active pattern late next week. Something to watch.

[Baum]

8 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

idk…

1-3” area wide this evening, another D-2” tomorrow.

My guess is when it’s all told it was one of the more wintery Decembers in awhile. And unfortunately winters can be days on end of 33 and clouds. Rarely wall to wall snow and cold. Throw in a tornado warning for some as good measure.