Winter 2025-26 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[A-L-E-K]

as an all-season weather head, I just want wild weather to return

[DocATL]

We are so back.

For a day anyway!


.

[Stebo]

1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said:

as an all-season weather head, I just want wild weather to return

A quiet feb leading into an active march?

[michsnowfreak]

20 minutes ago, Stebo said:

A quiet feb leading into an active march?

Id bet on it. Whether its more snow, more thunderstorms/rain, or a mix, Id bet on it. Happens so often that a quiet month leads to a more active.

Until this week, its actually been a very "active" winter here in SE MI, just no major storms. Two moderate ones and a ton of small ones. 

[nvck]

3 hours ago, Stebo said:

A quiet feb leading into an active march?

<next month> will be rockin!

[Stebo]

1 hour ago, nvck said:

<next month> will be rockin!

It will be!

[frostfern]

6 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Id bet on it. Whether its more snow, more thunderstorms/rain, or a mix, Id bet on it. Happens so often that a quiet month leads to a more active.

Until this week, its actually been a very "active" winter here in SE MI, just no major storms. Two moderate ones and a ton of small ones. 

It’s been a good year for lake enhanced clippers.  Just not any big 24 hour totals outside the prime like effect zones.

[DocATL]

Virginia is for snow lovers.

[roardog]

2 hours ago, frostfern said:

It’s been a good year for lake enhanced clippers.  Just not any big 24 hour totals outside the prime like effect zones.

Isn’t this winter the type of winter everyone was wondering why we didn’t get anymore? The clipper winter. 

[cyclone77]

1 hour ago, roardog said:

Isn’t this winter the type of winter everyone was wondering why we didn’t get anymore? The clipper winter. 

Problem though was that they stayed over the same areas all winter.  Nice to finally see clippers again, but maybe next time we can spread them out a little more lol.

[Harry Perry]

2 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Problem though was that they stayed over the same areas all winter.  Nice to finally see clippers again, but maybe next time we can spread them out a little more lol.

Outside of a couple decent hitters early on, the majority of them were mood flakes to a dusting. It wasn’t all that active in Michigan despite all the talk about it, especially outside of the lake belts. 

[Chicago Storm]

What does @Chicago Storm think?

the next window of opportunity is nearing for the sub-forum. we enter this window beginning mid-next week.

some places are going to do really well in this pattern. who will it be? msp, grb, mke, ord, dtw?

[RemoteSenses]

I’m ready to be let down again.

[A-L-E-K]

3 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

the next window of opportunity is nearing for the sub-forum. we enter this window beginning mid-next week.

some places are going to do really well in this pattern. who will it be? msp, grb, mke, ord, dtw?

Grb duh

[WestMichigan]

7 hours ago, Harry Perry said:

Outside of a couple decent hitters early on, the majority of them were mood flakes to a dusting. It wasn’t all that active in Michigan despite all the talk about it, especially outside of the lake belts. 

What is your total in the Battle Creek area so far?  I am west of Grand Rapids and we are around 80" so far.

[A-L-E-K]

100 or bust^

[Chicago916]

[michsnowfreak]

11 hours ago, Harry Perry said:

Outside of a couple decent hitters early on, the majority of them were mood flakes to a dusting. It wasn’t all that active in Michigan despite all the talk about it, especially outside of the lake belts. 

It was quite active here, just no major storms. Seemed like i was shoveling constantly at times. Here is the daily snowfall and snow depth at Detroit since Nov 29

2025-11-29	2.9	0
2025-11-30	0.7	3
2025-12-01	0.2	3
2025-12-02	0.8	4
2025-12-03	0.9	3
2025-12-04	T	4
2025-12-05	0.0	3
2025-12-06	0.0	3
2025-12-07	1.5	2
2025-12-08	0.0	4
2025-12-09	1.6	4
2025-12-10	1.4	6
2025-12-11	T	4
2025-12-12	T	4
2025-12-13	T	4
2025-12-14	T	4
2025-12-15	0.3	4
2025-12-16	0.0	4
2025-12-17	0.0	4
2025-12-18	0.0	2
2025-12-19	0.3	T
2025-12-20	0.0	T
2025-12-21	T	0
2025-12-22	T	0
2025-12-23	0.0	0
2025-12-24	0.0	0
2025-12-25	0.0	0
2025-12-26	0.0	0
2025-12-27	T	0
2025-12-28	0.0	0
2025-12-29	1.5	0
2025-12-30	0.2	1
2025-12-31	2.2	1
2026-01-01	0.5	3
2026-01-02	0.2	3
2026-01-03	0.3	3
2026-01-04	T	3
2026-01-05	T	2
2026-01-06	0.0	1
2026-01-07	0.0	0
2026-01-08	0.0	0
2026-01-09	0.0	0
2026-01-10	T	0
2026-01-11	T	0
2026-01-12	0.0	0
2026-01-13	0.0	0
2026-01-14	5.1	0
2026-01-15	1.0	6
2026-01-16	0.6	5
2026-01-17	0.2	4
2026-01-18	0.5	4
2026-01-19	0.3	4
2026-01-20	T	4
2026-01-21	2.4	5
2026-01-22	0.1	6
2026-01-23	0.2	6
2026-01-24	0.1	5
2026-01-25	4.8	6
2026-01-26	0.1	9
2026-01-27	0.3	9
2026-01-28	0.4	9
2026-01-29	T	9
2026-01-30	T	8
2026-01-31	T	8
2026-02-01	T	8
2026-02-02	1.4	7
2026-02-03	T	8
2026-02-04	T	8
2026-02-05	0.1	8
2026-02-06	0.9	8
2026-02-07	0.0	9
2026-02-08	0.0	8
2026-02-09	0.0	8
2026-02-10	0.0	8
2026-02-11	T	5
2026-02-12	T	5

[Brian D]

10 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

the next window of opportunity is nearing for the sub-forum. we enter this window beginning mid-next week.

some places are going to do really well in this pattern. who will it be? msp, grb, mke, ord, dtw?

DLH & TH!!  

[beavis1729]

5 hours ago, WestMichigan said:

What is your total in the Battle Creek area so far?  I am west of Grand Rapids and we are around 80" so far.

This is an example of why there are so many varied opinions and grades on this winter so far. Just like real estate, everything is local.

For instance, while Rockford IL had a really good 10-day period early on (around 15”), the snow depth was 0-1” from 12/13 through the end of the month, including a brown Christmas. After the good early period, there has only been 6” of snow between 12/11 and today (nearly 9 weeks), with the highest depth 2” and most days with either bare spots or completely bare ground. That’s not good.

If the early snowfall would have stayed deep, then the tiny amounts of snow over the next several weeks would have been ok, especially given the recent cold. But it seems nearly impossible to combine snow with cold. Same theme as always - SDDs matter. And we keep getting frustrated on that metric, at least on this side of the lake. I know some areas had a few LE events, but not material enough to make an impact on SDDs and the look and feel…plus not everyone experienced good LE to begin with. The dreaded NW flow chinook pattern, where the angle of the cold is wrong and nearly everyone suffers.

It’s the persistent theme in these parts, where there have been favorable periods in recent winters, but the non-favorable periods are a disaster. It’s all or nothing. It would be nice if the non-favorable periods were at least decent (say 2-4” of snow each week at a minimum), solely due to the calendar.

Plus it hurt us this winter because the good period occurred so early in the season, that the snow melted from below because the ground was too warm. Ugh.  But it was definitely fun to take a Jeb walk in the -10F air in January. So the winter hasn’t been all bad, just feels like a missed opportunity for a really solid winter. 

[cyclone77]

45 minutes ago, Brian D said:

DLH & TH!!  

Terre Haute?

[A-L-E-K]

problematic look

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, beavis1729 said:

This is an example of why there are so many varied opinions and grades on this winter so far. Just like real estate, everything is local.

For instance, while Rockford IL had a really good 10-day period early on (around 15”), the snow depth was 0-1” from 12/13 through the end of the month, including a brown Christmas. After the good early period, there has only been 6” of snow between 12/11 and today (nearly 9 weeks), with the highest depth 2” and most days with either bare spots or completely bare ground. That’s not good.

If the early snowfall would have stayed deep, then the tiny amounts of snow over the next several weeks would have been ok, especially given the recent cold. But it seems nearly impossible to combine snow with cold. Same theme as always - SDDs matter. And we keep getting frustrated on that metric, at least on this side of the lake. I know some areas had a few LE events, but not material enough to make an impact on SDDs and the look and feel…plus not everyone experienced good LE to begin with. The dreaded NW flow chinook pattern, where the angle of the cold is wrong and nearly everyone suffers.

It’s the persistent theme in these parts, where there have been favorable periods in recent winters, but the non-favorable periods are a disaster. It’s all or nothing. It would be nice if the non-favorable periods were at least decent (say 2-4” of snow each week at a minimum), solely due to the calendar.

Plus it hurt us this winter because the good period occurred so early in the season, that the snow melted from below because the ground was too warm. Ugh.  But it was definitely fun to take a Jeb walk in the -10F air in January. So the winter hasn’t been all bad, just feels like a missed opportunity for a really solid winter. 

I would be REALLY interested to see what you would rate the winter here in Detroit. It SCREAMS Beavis winter. Outside of those 2 gross weeks (Christmas week and 2nd week of Jan) it has literally been Beavis winter to a TEE since late November. Not only has the cold and snowcover been consistent, but the snowcover was always looking fresh and clean (just now got a bit dirty after Tuesday). It was also colder in Detroit than Chicago. Not saying this in a bragging way, just because its really rare to get such a beavis winter. 

Ever since you explained SDDs Ive followed them closely. Chicagos annual avg since 1949 for SDDs is 176. So far this season they are at 117. Detroits annual avg for SDDs since 1949 is 183, and so far they are already at 289. So, Detroit has seen 36.3" of snow to Chicagos 32.1", yet Detroit has had 172 (and counting) more SDDs than Chicago.

[Brian D]

2 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Terre Haute?

My town, Two Harbors.

[DocATL]

Lovely east coast pattern on Goofus for those of you into that sort of thing.

[McHenrySnow]

8 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

This is an example of why there are so many varied opinions and grades on this winter so far. Just like real estate, everything is local.

For instance, while Rockford IL had a really good 10-day period early on (around 15”), the snow depth was 0-1” from 12/13 through the end of the month, including a brown Christmas. After the good early period, there has only been 6” of snow between 12/11 and today (nearly 9 weeks), with the highest depth 2” and most days with either bare spots or completely bare ground. That’s not good.

If the early snowfall would have stayed deep, then the tiny amounts of snow over the next several weeks would have been ok, especially given the recent cold. But it seems nearly impossible to combine snow with cold. Same theme as always - SDDs matter. And we keep getting frustrated on that metric, at least on this side of the lake. I know some areas had a few LE events, but not material enough to make an impact on SDDs and the look and feel…plus not everyone experienced good LE to begin with. The dreaded NW flow chinook pattern, where the angle of the cold is wrong and nearly everyone suffers.

It’s the persistent theme in these parts, where there have been favorable periods in recent winters, but the non-favorable periods are a disaster. It’s all or nothing. It would be nice if the non-favorable periods were at least decent (say 2-4” of snow each week at a minimum), solely due to the calendar.

Plus it hurt us this winter because the good period occurred so early in the season, that the snow melted from below because the ground was too warm. Ugh.  But it was definitely fun to take a Jeb walk in the -10F air in January. So the winter hasn’t been all bad, just feels like a missed opportunity for a really solid winter. 

Probably as good as we're going to get going forward. Next winter already looks like a nightmare with el nino. Only positive in a warming planet is the occasional monster storm, but lengthy periods with a solid snowpack in northern illinois are increasingly unlikely. 

[Baum]

The northeast and mid Atlantic are nearing some of the lengthiest snow packs in decades with near records in some cases. And most of it stemmed from an event 2-3 weeks ago. Was not aware climatologicaly how much easier it is for our area to retain snow cover versus them. Here, a 2-3 week cover from a 10” event in mid winter is standard. Heck, this pack were melting off is basically from a duster train and lake effect event. I figured it’d go poof. Not so. But another day of 50’s will end it. Bring on a salt washer. Of course we’ll probably follow that with an 8” tree snapper.

[michsnowfreak]

14 hours ago, McHenrySnow said:

Probably as good as we're going to get going forward. Next winter already looks like a nightmare with el nino. Only positive in a warming planet is the occasional monster storm, but lengthy periods with a solid snowpack in northern illinois are increasingly unlikely. 

Disagree. This winter's snowpack has been far above climo in SE MI and if the pattern was shifted a bit west that could've easily been Chicago. Of course nothing compares to the record winter of 2013-14, just 12 years ago (the planet was warming then as well). Always all about the pattern. If anything Chicago's problem this winter was too much CAD.

As for next winter, certainly not worried about that yet lol. With 2 colder than normal winters in a row and an el nino on deck, I wouldn't bet against a milder winter, but we've learned time and time again in recent years that enso is just one piece of the puzzle. Usually weak/mod ninos are workable. The only true nightmare scenario is if we are in mid-Fall and a strong nino is imminent.

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, Baum said:

The northeast and mid Atlantic are nearing some of the lengthiest snow packs in decades with near records in some cases. And most of it stemmed from an event 2-3 weeks ago. Was not aware climatologicaly how much easier it is for our area to retain snow cover versus them. Here, a 2-3 week cover from a 10” event in mid winter is standard. Heck, this pack were melting off is basically from a duster train and lake effect event. I figured it’d go poof. Not so. But another day of 50’s will end it. Bring on a salt washer. Of course we’ll probably follow that with an 8” tree snapper.

Yes it is very unusual for them. My friend on Long Island has always told me about 2 foot storms that melt in 5 days. That sounds insane to me. That would be on the ground all winter. So for them to sustain a solid pack from a ~1 foot storm (Mid-Atlantic well less than that) for weeks is very impressive for them.