Winter 2025-26 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Powerball]

20 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

gonna be a problem

That's actually not too bad of an outcome, compared to what the EURO's been depicting.

Hearing pingers for hours on end will never not be extremely annoying, but at least it's not cripping / catastrophic unlike 1"+ of freezing rain...

 

[A-L-E-K]

two inches of pingers gonna lead to biblical pileups

texas drivers 

[A-L-E-K]

ggem with a cool 20+ imby this run

by far our premier west side of the lake fantasy LES model

[DocATL]

Euro is a nickel and dime fest with a sharp cutoff.

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

18Z gfs would shut down the southeast for days

Insane run 

[mimillman]

6 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

18Z gfs would shut down the southeast for days

Insane run 

Greensboro, NC with a casual 4x annual snowfall average in a single event 

[cyclone77]

Hope nobody plans on using FedEx for several days.  Memphis gonna get shellacked.   

[sbnwx85]

Went to visit the Southeast forum. First post I saw said “Stop. Final warning.” So they seem to be handling things well…

[Powerball]

The meltdowns to beat all meltdowns incoming (Beavis will have nothing on me) if this happens...

[A-L-E-K]

53 minutes ago, Powerball said:

The meltdowns to beat all meltdowns incoming (Beavis will have nothing on me) if this happens...

Greensboro winter

[mimillman]

Riding the euro for 36 hours of high ratio mood dust 

[buckeye]

9 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Riding the euro for 36 hours of high ratio mood dust 

if the trend on that 18z euro continues with more and more of a big phase....Josh might be reeling this one in.

[Jackstraw]

Some of these model runs temp wise are nuts by Mon and Tues. They have 99% of the lower 48 below freezing and not just freezing, down into the 20's and lower. Not buying it but nationwide freezing pipes? Oh Lawdy lol. I don't think I've ever seen that. I will take the 12Z Canuk weenie land for 100 lol

 

[mimillman]

8 minutes ago, buckeye said:

if the trend on that 18z euro continues with more and more of a big phase....Josh might be reeling this one in.

I can’t believe no one flagged 12z ensemble member 38. Where has the love gone 

[buckeye]

4 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

Some of these model runs temp wise are nuts by Mon and Tues. They have 99% of the lower 48 below freezing and not just freezing, down into the 20's and lower. Not buying it but nationwide freezing pipes? Oh Lawdy lol. I don't think I've ever seen that. I will take the 12Z Canuk weenie land for 100 lol

 

 

 

December 1989 was the last time I recall such widespread brutal cold across the whole conus.    We hit -18 at the peak of that coldwave.    When it broke, winter was over.

[Harry Perry]

Looks like the Hurricane Hunter is going to make a special flight for some data over the Pacific to ingest into the models. Pretty cool. 

[CheeselandSkies]

*Looks at 18Z GFS and cries*

I HATE prolonged deep cold. Looks like those flagging the 2013-'14 similarities were right. Can only hope unlike that year it breaks in time to not totally bollocks season apart from a 3-day sequence in mid-F*CKING JUNE.

[cyclone77]

Gonna have to take a shot of jagermeister before opening the gas bill in about a month or so.

[Chicago916]

Soooo. We realistically are still too north for the weekend system right? Kinda seems like a northern feature has sped up and is now phasing with the ejected cutoff and pumping up the SE ridge enough to just about get precipitation up this way? Would love an expert's opinion here lol

[Malacka11]

Would also love an expert's opinion. Would definitely be a long ways to trend but it wouldn't take too many jumps at tonight's pace

[Chicago916]

Recon missions with better sampling too will be super meaningful. Regardless of outcome here, very interesting set-up. The South will get demolished regardless. 

[Chicago Storm]

Soooo. We realistically are still too north for the weekend system right? Kinda seems like a northern feature has sped up and is now phasing with the ejected cutoff and pumping up the SE ridge enough to just about get precipitation up this way? Would love an expert's opinion here lol

Would also love an expert's opinion. Would definitely be a long ways to trend but it wouldn't take too many jumps at tonight's pace

[Jackstraw]

00Z suite is continuing better phasing and some Northern movement. I dont care if we can get 2-4in here, it better be white before tundra sets in. Keeps my dog from pulling a Joe Dirt when he goes out. If we go below 0 again with powdered sugar blowing around bare spots I'm gonna go bonkers and start rooting for Morch in January. 7 years of this shit It's ridiculous.

[Chicago916]

I say we give this the ol no hitter treatment for now. 

[Harry Perry]

6 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

Would also love an expert's opinion. Would definitely be a long ways to trend but it wouldn't take too many jumps at tonight's pace

Ironically I was just comparing some 18z and 00z data 

 

[Chicago916]

Um guys. The latest UKIE... Hard to ignore that. 500mb is just crazy. (Ninja'd cuz didn't even see the random lake effect this model loves to always wrongly include)

[hawkeye_wx]

UK is way north, even getting snow into Iowa.

[sbnwx85]

2 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

UK is way north, even getting snow into Iowa.

East coast forum would be in shambles. Rooting for this.

[Cary67]

When the Euro shows rain in the OV as SLP moves from Terre Haute to Indy line then start a thread

[sbnwx85]

4 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said:

East coast forum would be in shambles. Rooting for this.

Actually NYC still does pretty well here so whatever lol