Winter 2025-26 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[A-L-E-K]

 

[Frog Town]

14 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

 

Reality, but still a total buzz kill.  

[mimillman]

Glad ill be gone for this whole period. Yawn 

[A-L-E-K]

33 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Glad ill be gone for this whole period. Yawn 

february will be rockin'?

[hlcater]

palms gonna be loving the upcoming pattern

[Chicago Storm]

palms gonna be loving the upcoming pattern

they will, cause right now they’re not enthused.

[CheeselandSkies]

From wind chills in the -20s today and tomorrow to...that.

The phrase "averages are merely a mean of extremes" comes to mind.

Between the first and second halves, this month will likely show up as close to "normal" temperature-wise around these parts when all is said and done, but it will say absolutely nothing about the conditions actually experienced on any given day.

[DocATL]

february will be rockin'?

Yeah…I think we got winter over and done with early. A mild January and February?


.

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, DocATL said:

Yeah…I think we got winter over and done with early. A mild January and February?


.

Yup. Winter done with before the winter solstice 

[Frog Town]

58 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Yup. Winter done with before the winter solstice 

 Here’s the issue. It’s like having a warm early May, then a cooldown leading up to the June solstice, and declaring that summer is over and not coming. Playing devil’s advocate, though—winter is cumulative and depends on a cold source and upstream snowpack. Summer doesn’t necessarily rely on those same factors to still turn out hot, even if there’s an early “snowball” effect to cool things down prior to the solstice.  

 

[michsnowfreak]

20 minutes ago, Frog Town said:

 Here’s the issue. It’s like having a warm early May, then a cooldown leading up to the June solstice, and declaring that summer is over and not coming. Playing devil’s advocate, though—winter is cumulative and depends on a cold source and upstream snowpack. Summer doesn’t necessarily rely on those same factors to still turn out hot, even if there’s an early “snowball” effect to cool things down prior to the solstice.  

 

Many times in la nina December is the wintriest month. But it doesn't necessarily mean the others are bad. Im sure it was tongue in cheek tho, everyone knows the cfs monthlies, which change 4x a day, are useless. It does seem like some sort of gradient may want to develop, also a nina characteristic.

[Baum]

3 hours ago, DocATL said:

Yeah…I think we got winter over and done with early. A mild January and February?


.

Silly.

[DocATL]

Silly.

It’s. A. Joke.

But…even in a mild January and February it can still snow…honestly probably better chances.

[hawkeye_wx]

A few model runs here and there had been throwing in a day in the 50s or even 60s here over the next couple weeks, but they have moderated the warmup.  The latest Euro and GFS have a couple days in the 40s, but then it's just a bunch of 30s with a few 20s thrown in, so it's mostly relatively mild, but no blow torch.  The snow will still melt off.

[cyclone77]

If it's not gonna snow I'll take a big rainer.  Still a lot of ground to make up in the moisture dept from the dry summer and fall.

[frostfern]

2 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

If it's not gonna snow I'll take a big rainer.  Still a lot of ground to make up in the moisture dept from the dry summer and fall.

Still a big long-term deficit near me.  I have a shallow pond nearby that used to have a lot of turtles.  It became a meadow last summer.  I don’t know if it will come ever back.  Once the tall grass takes over its hard for wetlands to refill.

[A-L-E-K]

Zzzzzz

[Baum]

10 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

Zzzzzz

I’m ready.

[A-L-E-K]

p brutal looking extended

[Torchageddon]

On 12/13/2025 at 3:30 PM, michsnowfreak said:

Yup. Winter done with before the winter solstice 

That brings up a fascinating ask; what winter is the closest to having most of its cold/snow in Nov and the first 3 weeks of Dec? There would still be wintery wx after the solstice due to the small database of winters we have.

[CheeselandSkies]

Here's the thing though. May not be true for other parts of the sub, but here in Wisconsin we can be solidly AA in Jan/Feb and it's still cold enough to snow.

I'm firmly part of the camp who can do without the extended periods of barely cracking 10°F.

[roardog]

1 hour ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Here's the thing though. May not be true for other parts of the sub, but here in Wisconsin we can be solidly AA in Jan/Feb and it's still cold enough to snow.

I'm firmly part of the camp who can do without the extended periods of barely cracking 10°F.

Yeah. If your thing is just to have snowstorms then you’re almost better off hoping for above normal temps in the dead of winter.

[Chicago Storm]

we thank you for participating in this 2.5 week stretch of winter.

we now return you to your regularly scheduled programming.

 

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, roardog said:

Yeah. If your thing is just to have snowstorms then you’re almost better off hoping for above normal temps in the dead of winter.

That is true 

[A-L-E-K]

6 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

we thank you for participating in this 2.5 week stretch of winter.

we now return you to your regularly scheduled programming.

 

 

 

[michsnowfreak]

6 hours ago, Torchageddon said:

That brings up a fascinating ask; what winter is the closest to having most of its cold/snow in Nov and the first 3 weeks of Dec? There would still be wintery wx after the solstice due to the small database of winters we have.

I found 3 instances at Detroit where more than half the seasons snowfall fell by December 15th.

Thru Dec 15...season total

2005-06: 21.0"...36.3"

1890-91: 17.2"...31.4"

1932-33: 13.1"...25.9"

For comparison, season average is 42.7" with avg to Dec 15th being just 5.5".

2025-26 is at 12.6" to date.

[Baum]

I’m sniffing a more moderate mid-late December period as opposed to welcome to Spring with periodic precipitation chances. A relaxation was inevitable 

[A-L-E-K]

looks mild and boring

 

[Cary67]

With this much time left on the winter calendar figure a 2 week window of opportunity still ahead; where the pattern becomes favorable again for snow. Until then "back to our regularly scheduled programming" seems to characterize things well.

[DocATL]

looks mild and boring

 

Excited for the thaw though and no more dirty ice sheets!