Nov 28-30th Post Turkey Day Wintry Potential

[SchaumburgStormer]

Cant help but start to feel optimistic as guidance continues to hone in on a good, potentially REAL good, hit for LOT. 

 

If we get rug pulled on this one I may jump into the river. 

[CheeselandSkies]

12Z GFS rolling...

[nvck]

new gfs looking good

[A-L-E-K]

2 minutes ago, nvck said:

new gfs looking good

qc to green bay slp in the 1009-1004 range, idk man

recent track record with waa hits imby naso great

[Radtechwxman]

Weird cuz gfs starts pretty south with low then all of a sudden is so north. Definitely not liking 12z gfs and seems like trends been north with waa at least on gfs. Definitely not sitting comfortable with where I'm at. 

[nvck]

1 minute ago, A-L-E-K said:

qc to green bay slp in the 1009-1004 range, idk man

recent track record with waa hits imby naso great

waiting on the euro in a couple hours, but between this run and the icon, its a good trend imo. keeps the rain/snow line south of i-94 in mi

[SchaumburgStormer]

God the GFS is such a garbage model. 

[migratingwx]

[Radtechwxman]

19 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

God the GFS is such a garbage model. 

Amen. Riding team euro till end

[DocATL]

Gonna be rain by tomorrow’s runs isn’t it?

[Radtechwxman]

2 minutes ago, DocATL said:

Gonna be rain by tomorrow’s runs isn’t it?

Wouldn't surprise me. WAA usually wins. But still several days out. A lot can change. For better or worse

[ChiTownSnow]

32 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

qc to green bay slp in the 1009-1004 range, idk man

recent track record with waa hits imby naso great

right.. something seems odd with that tho.  verbaitm would be raining on our parade 

hoping its just models being models between runs and not trend

[hawkeye_wx]

Some models had been dumping a bunch of the energy into the sw US and cutting it off, but now they are all trending toward ejecting it into the midwest this weekend.  The Friday night snow is looking a bit lighter, but now a stronger low blows up the snow across Iowa Saturday into Saturday night.  As long as it doesn't trend any farther north, which every model this morning has done, I should be good.

[Radtechwxman]

3 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Some models had been dumping a bunch of the energy into the sw US and cutting it off, but now they are all trending toward ejecting it into the midwest this weekend.  The Friday night snow is looking a bit lighter, but now a stronger low blows up the snow across Iowa Saturday into Saturday night.  As long as it doesn't trend any farther north, which every model this morning has done, I should be good.

You usually are sitting pretty good. Lol. Im forever riding the line I swear. I can't afford any north bumps. 

[A-L-E-K]

4 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Some models had been dumping a bunch of the energy into the sw US and cutting it off, but now they are all trending toward ejecting it into the midwest this weekend.  The Friday night snow is looking a bit lighter, but now a stronger low blows up the snow across Iowa Saturday into Saturday night.  As long as it doesn't trend any farther north, which every model this morning has done, I should be good.

def taking on a more traditional snow storm evolution, obviously slp track trending wrong way for non-wisconsin posters but still time there

idk about u guys but i'm very over the strung out and sw cutoff rigmarole we've been dealing with the past few years, remember negatively tilted troughs? 

[migratingwx]

% for >3" is lower than the 6z run for Chicago.

[mannynyc]

5 minutes ago, migratingwx said:

% for >3" is lower than the 6z run for Chicago.

[Radtechwxman]

2 minutes ago, mannynyc said:

Definitely aggressive with the waa. Curious to see 12z euro

[sbnwx85]

UKIE stayed south FWIW. Is the Canadian delayed?

[migratingwx]

6 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said:

UKIE stayed south FWIW. Is the Canadian delayed?

Canadian was cold, Euro running now.

[DocATL]

Euro AI still quite south.

[OrdIowPitMsp]

I should be in line for a nice snowpack refresher/boost with this one. 
 

Have models taken into account the snowpack that will be laid down across MN/WI tonight? Perhaps that will drive the baroclinic zone a tad south for the Chicago peeps. Never underestimate WAA though….

[migratingwx]

6 minutes ago, DocATL said:

Euro AI still quite south.

A slight bump upwards in totals, too. 

[migratingwx]

Just now, migratingwx said:

A slight bump upwards in totals, too. 

[migratingwx]

12z Euro seems to have caught on with the WAA, so totals may not be as high as previous run, especially south of Chicago. Waiting on a few more frames.

[Chambana]

As a wise man ALEK once said “miss north stank”

[A-L-E-K]

2 minutes ago, Chambana said:

As a wise man ALEK once said “miss north stank”

for many, the weak slp and good antecedent are doing heavy work keeping some of us in the game

[migratingwx]

3 minutes ago, migratingwx said:

12z Euro seems to have caught on with the WAA, so totals may not be as high as previous run, especially south of Chicago. Waiting on a few more frames.

12z vs 6z below

 

 

[Radtechwxman]

Ugh Euro is north. Pretty much saw that coming. Hoping it can nudge back south but feel like this gunna end up an I80 north special. Shocker

[ILSNOW]

Question

BIG IF this storm materializes and the Chicagoland area goes under a winterstorm warning (BIG IF)  will this be the 1st time that we have been under 2 warnings before Dec?