December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[frd]

Merry Warm up. 

Need to go back in time to get even a normal winter.  I miss you Nor'easters and SECS/ MECS .    

 

 

 

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, frd said:

Merry Warm up. 

Need to go back in time to get even a normal winter.  I miss you Nor'easters and SECS/ MECS .    

 

 

 

Lots of cold air lurking just up north. This warm up won’t last long. Unfortunately it may happen right at xmas

[Eskimo Joe]

6 minutes ago, frd said:

Merry Warm up. 

Need to go back in time to get even a normal winter.  I miss you Nor'easters and SECS/ MECS .    

 

 

 

This is going to erode most of the negative departures we have for the month. The worst of the worst.

[frd]

Just now, Terpeast said:

Lots of cold air lurking just up north. This warm up won’t last long. Unfortunately it may happen right at xmas

Thats fine with me.

I read previous times where Decembers that featured a mostly  -PNA have a following Jan with a overall + PNA. 

Hope that repeats next month, along with some timed moisture. Even a little snow would be nice.  

[LP08]

Nam gets some light snow in on Friday, DC to the south at around 10. 

[stormy]

8 minutes ago, frd said:

Merry Warm up. 

Need to go back in time to get even a normal winter.  I miss you Nor'easters and SECS/ MECS .    

 

 

 

I love it!   We need a thaw.  16 this morning was 13 degrees colder than normal.

It was 65 degrees for Christmas 1965.    That was 60 years ago.

[dailylurker]

14 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Did I ever mention how much this hobby sucks?

 

I wish this was a hobby for me. I could just quit and walk away until it snows. Nope.. I was born connected to the weather. It brings tears and joy lol. 

Of course I like the gfs for my yard. I'd like to see that moisture expand to the north and include the high snow deserts to my nw. 

[LP08]

6 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Nam gets some light snow in on Friday, DC to the south at around 10. 

Snows most of the day Friday, albeit light on both 3k and 12k

[Eskimo Joe]

 

 

[soadforecasterx]

I know Nam is out of its range but just looping to 84 makes you wonder how some one doesn't get a nice 2-4" storm 

[Interstate]

I do not know if anyone knows... but the Beta version of Pivotal Weather now has the Euro 6z/18z for free. 

[stormtracker]

What are we doing here?  I mean i know, but I don’t.  There are two different things and 4 scenarios with each thing and alternating jacks that switch places between both things.   

[dailylurker]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

What are we doing here?  I mean i know, but I don’t.  There are two different things and 4 scenarios with each thing and alternating jacks that switch places between both things.   

Yeah. I'm really confused what were talking about here lol

[Interstate]

We are talking about possible light snow here on Friday and possible heavier event on Sunday... Keep up

[Terpeast]

3 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Yeah. I'm really confused what were talking about here lol

You’re not the only one 

[mitchnick]

42 minutes ago, frd said:

Merry Warm up. 

Need to go back in time to get even a normal winter.  I miss you Nor'easters and SECS/ MECS .    

 

 

 

Gefs continue with normal temps with ridge draped across the southern tier being pushed sw.

[Ruin]

52 minutes ago, frd said:

Merry Warm up. 

Need to go back in time to get even a normal winter.  I miss you Nor'easters and SECS/ MECS .    

 

 

 

stuff like this pisses me off to no end. monday night it showed 28 for a high on christmast with a chance of light snow on long range. Now it shows a torch of course. I bet that is accurate vs the cold it just showed 

[NorthArlington101]

I'm most "worried" about another miss south for Friday right now - pretty much all the models stick with the seasonal trend. Not gonna cry over missing 1", at least. 

[dailylurker]

I started a lame thread for Friday lol. 

[stormtracker]

26 minutes ago, Interstate said:

We are talking about possible light snow here on Friday and possible heavier event on Sunday... Keep up

Define "here".  

[WxUSAF]

With potentially another Xmas torch staring us in the face, I decided to make a plot to see if it’s been as real as it feels or has been for years. So this plot is BWI above normal and much above normal (>=10F) occurrences from 2005-2024. Thicker lines are the year by year counts for each calendar day and thin lines are smoothed by 7 days. Short answer is yes…and the week after Xmas before new years has been the most torch prone.

[WesternFringe]

30 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

What are we doing here?  I mean i know, but I don’t.  There are two different things and 4 scenarios with each thing and alternating jacks that switch places between both things.   

We are talking about an event that is less than 36 hours away in the medium/long-term thread.  And Sunday maybe missing north or south.  And about how the snow gods hate certain spots on the map, and reward everyone else but them with snow.  And how it might be warm for Christmas like it was in 1965, but not for long.

[stormtracker]

6 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

I started a lame thread for Friday lol. 

I pinned it.   I mean, why not

[Maestrobjwa]

31 minutes ago, Interstate said:

I do not know if anyone knows... but the Beta version of Pivotal Weather now has the Euro 6z/18z for free. 

Yes that version is a major improvement overall!

[Interstate]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Define "here".  

Short Pump. 

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, WesternFringe said:

We are talking about an event that is less than 36 hours away in the medium/long-term thread.  And Sunday maybe missing north or south.  And about how the snow gods hate certain spots on the map, and reward everyone else but them with snow.  And how it might be warm for Christmas like it was in 1965.

Heh...I pinned daily's thread to sort that out at least.  Kinda want to sort that Sunday thing out too, but the jinxistas will come out full flock

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, Interstate said:

Short Pump. 

Oh, ok.  New Boston.  

[bncho]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Heh...I pinned daily's thread to sort that out at least.  Kinda want to sort that Sunday thing out too, but the jinxistas will come out full flock

I'd say we wait until tomorrow for Sunday when the solution becomes a little bit clearer (or even more unclear with the way models are running nowadays lol)

[TSSN+]

Icon has zero interest for Friday or Sunday. 

[WxUSAF]

7 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Icon has zero interest for Friday or Sunday. 

Uh, well it Fs us both pretty badly, but other people cash in