December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[brooklynwx99]

47 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

I'm becoming more convinced over the years that snow around here is completely random luck that can happen any winter. 2016 was a warm turd except for the week prior to the storm and another short period of cold around valentines day. 

pretty significant block showing up later in the month, but the Pacific is kinda trash 

need to see if the block can become more west based and exert its will on the pattern, perhaps a forcing more of a ridge bridge up top. either that, or the Bering Sea ridge nudging east into AK

regardless, nice to see an Atlantic block develop... just need to see some other factors become more favorable for legit shots at snow south of the M/D line

[Fozz]

1 hour ago, dailylurker said:

I'm becoming more convinced over the years that snow around here is completely random luck that can happen any winter. 2016 was a warm turd except for the week prior to the storm and another short period of cold around valentines day. 

It wasn’t just luck, we had a classic west based -NAO in a strong El Niño.

Super Ninos are usually warm and boring unless we get that ideal setup, then a HECS is in play.

[dailylurker]

9 minutes ago, Fozz said:

It wasn’t just luck, we had a classic west based -NAO in a strong El Niño.

Super Ninos are usually warm and boring unless we get that ideal setup, then a HECS is in play.

That was an impressive block. I remember Bob Chill, PSU, and CAPE called that pattern about 10 days out. The pattern happened perfectly. Then I remember the first model runs that showed the storm. The GFS dropped the first bomb. The others followed. That was about a week out. That was the cleanest tracking event I can ever remember. Models just kept showing that huge hit over and over until it hit. I received 20" here. 

[Ji]

3 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

GGEM has some snow and mix for Xmas

ive noticed that GGEM has alot of digital ice this year. IS that model broken?

[87storms]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

sir, this is a La Nina

Seems more like base climo at this point. It’s been cloudy, too, in this fast flow. My buddy confirmed that he’s only made 398kwh this December compared to 1100 last December.

[NorthArlington101]

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

ive noticed that GGEM has alot of digital ice this year. IS that model broken?

It's the iciest model in the world. Always disregard unless something similar is shown by literally every other model. Whole GEM suite is usually too cold at the surface at range (and pretty close to gametime) 

[WxUSAF]

If we care about the euro weeklies, looks like things are mostly crappy until the last week (19-26 Jan) when the PAC ridge shifts east into Alaska and BC. Until then…ehhh…

[CAPE]

35 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

If we care about the euro weeklies, looks like things are mostly crappy until the last week (19-26 Jan) when the PAC ridge shifts east into Alaska and BC. Until then…ehhh…

Yeah fwiw we get an EPO ridge by mid month and the NA looks decent too. This h5 look has been persistent over multiple runs so we shall see.

[Terpeast]

11 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Yeah fwiw we get an EPO ridge by mid month and the NA looks decent too. This h5 look has been persistent over multiple runs so we shall see.

Despite the yellows over us, this isn't exactly a warm look. Anticyclonic ridge out west where we want it, and broad cyclonic trough over midwest/east/NE. Trough NW of Hawaii with -EPO/-WPO and hint of GL blocking, with continued Scand ridging. Second half of Jan could be fun. 

[Ji]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

If we care about the euro weeklies, looks like things are mostly crappy until the last week (19-26 Jan) when the PAC ridge shifts east into Alaska and BC. Until then…ehhh…

well the same weeklies kept it cold through Christmas into New Years until it didnt. I think Bam is going to bust and then call it win when we salvage 10% of January lol

[Ji]

23 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Despite the yellows over us, this isn't exactly a warm look. Anticyclonic ridge out west where we want it, and broad cyclonic trough over midwest/east/NE. Trough NW of Hawaii with -EPO/-WPO and hint of GL blocking, with continued Scand ridging. Second half of Jan could be fun. 

as @CAPEalways says...forget the color and follow the dang lines  

[Ji]

How unusual is this? I dont recalling seeing a 500mb pattern like this often. When are we icebox ever the same time Alaska is?

[Weather Will]

Latest WB EURO weeklies do show the later half of month to be  colder.  Below anomalies for entire month. Pretty good...

[winter_warlock]

2 hours ago, Ji said:

ive noticed that GGEM has alot of digital ice this year. IS that model broken?

 Probably not any more broken then any other model lol

[winter_warlock]

44 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Yeah fwiw we get an EPO ridge by mid month and the NA looks decent too. This h5 look has been persistent over multiple runs so we shall see.

Looks promising!!!

[Ji]

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

Latest WB EURO weeklies do show the later half of month to be  colder.  Below anomalies for entire month. Pretty good...

we dont need to be in the blue. We can survive +1 or +2......we just cant be orange or red(temp wise)

[winter_warlock]

7 minutes ago, Ji said:

How unusual is this? I dont recalling seeing a 500mb pattern like this often. When are we icebox ever the same time Alaska is?

 Looks like a big rainbow over the central US lol

[Ji]

Just now, winter_warlock said:

 Looks like a big rainbow over the central US lol

it actually looks like a ridge lol

[CAPE]

34 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Despite the yellows over us, this isn't exactly a warm look. Anticyclonic ridge out west where we want it, and broad cyclonic trough over midwest/east/NE. Trough NW of Hawaii with -EPO/-WPO and hint of GL blocking, with continued Scand ridging. Second half of Jan could be fun. 

As Ji said, I don't pay much attention to the colors esp on these extended products. Follow the flow. With the EPO ridge and the TPV in that position, that's a cold look.

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

As Ji said, I don't pay much attention to the colors esp on these extended products. Follow the flow. With the EPO ridge and the TPV in that position, that's a cold look.

GFS and CMC Extended are a carbon copy of the Euro Ext(weekles), maybe even a little better. Nice to see that the pattern progression heading into mid Jan is in agreement among the big 3.

[WxUSAF]

16 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

 Looks like a big rainbow over the central US lol

Except there’s shit at the end of it instead of gold 

[CAPE]

The EPS has the best look in the NA(legit -NAO) heading into early Jan with a flattened flow underneath, despite the awful look out west. At least leaves open the possibility for something to track south of us.

[mitchnick]

We just need to steal a small and medium event before a decent pattern returns.

[Eskimo Joe]

22 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

We just need to steal a small and medium event before a decent pattern returns.

2" - 4" for Christmas would be solid 

[CAPE]

Hmm.. maybe

[aldie 22]

That's an aggressively wet gfs run

[bncho]

12/29-30 is probably our best chance, but it's still a long shot. OPs have been showing ways we can score for a decent amount of time and ensembles have a decent signal, but we're kinda grasping on straws here lol. EPS shows that kind of ugly central-US ridge, but it also shows an pretty strong east-based -NAO. Even though it's a -NAO, it's an east-based -NAO, so while it'll help with a torch it's not going to do much otherwise IMO. h5 flow would suggest WAA aloft but at least it's somewhat cold at the surface so snow changing to mix or rain has a decent chance. More of a conditional setup where timing is absolutely key, so wouldn't hold too much hope unless the -PNA/+EPO trends towards neutrality and/or that NAO block trends more west. We still have time though, 288 hours is more than enough time for those things to happen.

[Bob Chill]

Euro AI is rain to snow. Block and confluence flexing and forcing. I don't have high hopes for anything until the pac trough backs off but to get something to work we need a gnarly block and all models are showing something to that effect. 

[bncho]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Euro AI is rain to snow. Block and confluence flexing and forcing. I don't have high hopes for anything until the pac trough backs off but to get something to work we need a gnarly block and all models are showing something to that effect. 

pacific is just more powerful than the atlantic

[JenkinsJinkies]

4 hours ago, Ji said:

we dont need to be in the blue. We can survive +1 or +2......we just cant be orange or red(temp wise)

In January yes, February not so much.